Ukraine talks back on track with no clear way forward

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Phone Call ◽  
Group Meeting ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Legislation ◽  
Contact Group

Significance The summit was delayed when a routine 'contact group' meeting failed to produce a common commitment to the 'Steinmeier formula' for moving towards pace. Moscow blamed Kyiv, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief aide signalled a shift of position three days later by saying the 'Steinmeier formula' would be written into national legislation. Impacts Zelensky's foreign policy is complicated by US developments around his phone call with President Donald Trump; he will avoid comment. Zelensky has re-committed to four-party-only talks, rowing back on earlier talk of imminent US involvement. Nationalists and former combatants remain a constraint on any Ukrainian leader hoping for compromise. Even a successful settlement in eastern Ukraine would leave Crimea unresolved; Russia will not give ground there.

Ukraine will seek a louder voice in adverse conditions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Green Light ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Phone Call ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Adverse Conditions ◽  
Pipeline Project ◽  
Nord Stream

Significance Just as Zelensky's July 2019 phone call with then President Donald Trump was fading from memory, Biden's green light for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, in a deal with Germany, has undermined Ukraine's confidence in both countries. Kyiv is now seeking to make its own voice heard and assert its rights as a significant player rather than a pawn in international affairs. Impacts Kyiv will present the Biden summit as an achievement, whatever the outcome, although this is unlikely to affect Zelensky's ratings. The opposition will place the blame for Nord Stream 2 squarely on the Zelensky administration. Biden's decisions on Afghanistan will increase Ukrainian worries about US foreign policy commitments.

Trump defence spending plans will hit US fiscal limits

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
President Elect

Significance President-elect Donald Trump plans to expand military spending as part of his "America First" foreign policy but has so far offered few details of how this expansion will be financed. The new budget will have significant commercial implications for private entities involved in US defence procurements and for Washington’s force posture abroad. Impacts Trump may focus on increasing US-based missile defence capabilities instead of regionally focused systems based overseas. Political complications over NATO deployments may ensue if US spending outstrips that of its allies. Expansion of the nuclear arsenal beyond current modernisation plans could spark an arms race with Washington’s rivals.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

Imran Khan is likely to become Pakistan prime minister

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Military

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Deputy Director ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.

US diplomatic service will be downsized and degraded

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cutting Out ◽  
Foreign Policy Crises

Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.

Ukraine president's oligarch link is a vulnerability

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Phone Call ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Imf

Significance Such statements are meant to dispel the impression that President Volodymyr Zelensky's government and circle of advisers are influenced by billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky. This perception has been amplified by recent events, including the first public clash within the pro-Zelensky parliamentary majority in the legislature. Zelensky's camp is riven by multiple interests and influences. Impacts Zelensky's credibility has suffered from his submissive comments in the now infamous July phone call with US President Donald Trump. Returning Privatbank to its former owners, or agreeing to compensate them, would harm Ukraine's relations with the IMF. Divisions within the ruling party faction could lead to disintegration, eventually forcing Zelensky to call early elections.

London will diverge from the EU on foreign policy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
The Political ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Uk Foreign Policy ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK foreign policy. Significance Last week the EU and United Kingdom published their negotiating objectives for the future relationship. The European Commission’s negotiating mandate largely reflects the Political Declaration, including a desire for close formal cooperation in defence, security and foreign policy. The United Kingdom’s objectives indicate that it wants less formal cooperation as it seeks to de-institutionalise its relationship with the bloc. Impacts The economic impact of Brexit could cut the size of the UK defence budget, which has already fallen more than 10% in real terms since 2010. The absence of formal channels of EU-UK cooperation and coordination could result in a weakening of the EU’s sanctions regime on Russia.  The re-election of US President Donald Trump would herald a further four years of transatlantic tensions.

Biden’s US foreign policy agenda is emerging

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending

Significance Biden and Republican President Donald Trump, seeking re-election, are already sparring over US-China policy; this and other differences over foreign policy will mark the candidates’ campaigning. Impacts Biden would reduce US tariffs on China, favouring more targeted tariffs, but still push for Chinese economic reform. He would increase US attention to the Asia-Pacific, and work with China on North Korean denuclearisation. The next president will likely have to trim US defence spending and commitments overseas. Biden will refer to the Obama administration’s record as evidence of his fitness to govern.

Impeachment leaves untimely leadership vacuum in Seoul

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
Support Rate

Significance Park is already a lame duck with barely a year left to serve and her public support rate is just 5%. Her authority is irretrievably lost, but she refuses to resign. The uncertainty and ferment that have paralysed government in Seoul for weeks will therefore continue for several months. Impacts In a first-past-the-post system, deep divisions may prevent the opposition from capturing the presidency, despite its ostensible advantage. The consensus behind the West's hard line on Pyongyang could collapse if South Korea's next president favours outreach, as looks likely. Economic problems will gradually worsen in the absence of strong leadership capable of tackling tough issues. Paralysis in Seoul will prevent effective responses to changes to US foreign policy when Donald Trump takes office as president.

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