Sudan’s revolution may pay wider peace dividend

Significance The Constitutional Declaration -- a power-sharing agreement between the military leaders who ousted former President Omar al-Bashir and the protest leaders who led the popular revolution -- makes a peace agreement with Sudan’s various armed factions a priority for the first six months of the transition. Impacts For now, de facto ceasefires should mostly hold, though sporadic skirmishes, including among non-formal armed actors, may continue. Progress in peace talks would enhance wider prospects for stability, creating an enabling environment for economic and political reforms. Progress could also accelerate plans for the withdrawal of the joint UN-African Union peacekeeping mission in Darfur.

Significance The accord, the full contents of which are still not public, differs from previous deals in that it follows the first direct talks between the parties and because the government has reportedly met two key demands of armed groups: amnesty and power-sharing. These are controversial measures, but they may give the deal a greater chance of success than earlier efforts. Impacts If implemented, the peace agreement could facilitate humanitarian relief efforts and lead to gradual economic recovery. The new government should secure additional financial and technical assistance for the transition from the EU, UN and individual states. The actions of the African Union and neighbouring states, particularly Sudan and Chad, will carry more weight than Western partners.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonia Ruiz Moreno ◽  
María Isabel Roldán Bravo ◽  
Carlos García-Guiu ◽  
Luis M. Lozano ◽  
Natalio Extremera Pacheco ◽  
...  

PurposeThis paper aims to report the findings of a study examining the relationship between different leadership styles and engagement through the mediating role of proactive personality.Design/methodology/approachServant leadership, paradoxical leadership, authentic leadership, employee engagement and proactive personality were assessed in an empirical study based on a sample of 348 military personnel in Spain. The questionnaire data were analyzed through SEM using EQS and bootstrapping analysis using the PROCESS macro for SPSS.FindingsThe results reveal that servant leadership style in officers partially impacts their cadets' engagement through proactive personality but that authentic and paradoxical leadership styles do not mediate the relationship. The authors also verify a direct relationship between proactive personality and engagement.Practical implicationsThe study implications advance the literature on leadership in emphasizing new leadership styles to increase proactive personality and engagement in the military context. This study verifies the importance of military leaders fostering servant leadership as an antecedent of proactive personality. Finally, the authors show that servant leadership partially impacts engagement through proactive personality.Originality/valueThis study explores the relationship among servant, paradoxical and authentic leadership styles, proactive personality, and engagement – relationships that have not been explored theoretically and tested empirically in the military context.


Author(s):  
Astrid Jamar ◽  
Gerard Birantamije

Military politics have been entangled with the trajectory of Burundian public institutions, experiences of violence, and the army formation. From 1994 to 2009, the peace process brought together different political parties, security forces, and rebel groups to negotiate ceasefires and major institutional reforms. Adopted in 2000, the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement contained some of the most ambitious and sophisticated security reforms. While most literature emphasizes mostly on the Arusha Peace Agreement, 22 agreements were signed by different sets of parties, including political parties and rebel groups during these 15 years of peace meditation. The Arusha Peace Agreement provides for complex security arrangements: (a) a strictly defined role, structure, and mandate of the army and other security forces; (b) sophisticated power-sharing arrangements for both leadership and composition of the army and other security forces; (c) demobilization, disarmament, integration, and training of armed forces; (d) transformation of armed groups into political parties; and (e) ceasefires. The peace talks integrated various armed political groups into Burundian institutions. Responding to four decades of violence and military dictatorship, these reforms of the military and other security forces aimed to disentangle the military from politics. Initially contested, the agreements shaped the reading of the historical contexts that justified these institutional military reforms. Indeed, provisions of these agreements also framed a narrative about violence and imposed fixed interpretations of political mobilization of violence. These imposed interpretations neglected key elements that enabled and, continue to enable, the political use of violence as well as the emergence of new forms of military politics. The main institutional approaches adopted to tackle issue of inclusion and correct imbalances in armed forces was the introduction of power-sharing arrangements based on ethnic dimensions. The formulation and further implementation of ethnic quotas reinforced the binary elements of ethnic identities, rather than promote a more fluid understanding that would appreciate intersecting elements, such as gender, political affiliation, and class and regional dimensions in the undertaking of power, alliance, and relations between executive and military institutions. Security reforms continue to affect the functioning of public institutions, with limited effects for disentangling politics and military.


Significance His departure is ostensibly a blow for Sudan’s military leaders and a symbolic victory for Sudanese calling for the military to leave power. However, the stand-off between the two groups remains fundamentally unchanged. Impacts If leaders cannot find enough civilians to form a cabinet, they may offer some posts to serving or retired military. Protests and possible strike action will continue but may have only limited impact, unless rising casualties trigger a new flashpoint. Significant new international sanctions are unlikely to materialise.


Subject Trends in approaches to coups in Africa. Significance Following the introduction of multi-party politics in the 1990s, Africa gradually developed an anti-coup norm. This was institutionalised by the African Union (AU): regimes that came to power unconstitutionally were automatically suspended from membership. More recent trends are challenging this principle. Coups in Mali (2012), Burkina Faso (2014) and a recent failed attempt in Burundi have seen military leaders claiming to have intervened to 'save democracy', usually removing from office presidents failing to respect term limits. Impacts The role of African armies in peace-keeping can embolden military elites who do not have the same priorities as their Western funders. Dependence on African armies for peace-keeping acts as a bargaining chip for elites to neutralise external criticism of domestic issues. Donors still prefer African-led missions, given cost savings and the utility to bolster diplomatic relations with African states.


Significance International stakeholders hope the meeting can restore momentum to stalled regional peace efforts. However, the bilateral format represents a reversion to the old mediation formula which failed to produce a sustainable deal. Impacts The conflict’s humanitarian toll will continue to rise, with famine risks a recurring concern. Rebel fragmentation and supply constraints mean the government will retain the military advantage if conflict continues. Focus on power-sharing ratios will distract attention from more fundamental issues of governance and reform.


Significance The response underlines the military's continued internal security role but, given that the restive areas are home to large Rohingya populations, also highlights residual political sensitivity about the military's position and the importance of effective government-military relations. Impacts An immediate trigger for civil-military frictions could be a breakdown in peace negotiations with ethnic minority groups. The government will struggle to convince military leaders that wide concessions to armed ethnic groups are needed. Centralisation of power within the NLD will hamper junior civilian leaders gaining experience of working with the military. In time, the military's economic influence will be politically problematic for the NLD.


Significance Military and civilian leaders within the current power-sharing government have since accused each other of creating the conditions that prompted the coup, in an escalating confrontation over security sector reform that risks becoming a greater threat to the transition than the coup attempt itself. Impacts The more aggressively the commission established to dismantle the former regime conducts its work, the more the risk of coups will rise. Concrete guarantees of immunity for past crimes could encourage some (but not all) military leaders to consider more serious reforms. Civilian leaders might revive discussions shelved last year about creating a new internal security organ under civilian control.


2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-88
Author(s):  
Shaista Taj ◽  
Zahir Shah ◽  
Manzoor Ahmad

Pakistan remained under military domination for about 32 years (1958-1971,1977-1988 and 1999 to 2008). The perpetual influence of military overshadowed the civilian in one way or the other. To analyze civil-military nexus accurately, it is necessary to assess how both civil and military leaders handle policy discrepancies between them. The entire concept of the overall civil-military nexus is broadly based on the fact of how to assure civil control over the military. During Musharrafs regime, various nonmilitary practices with the vested interest of the military as a priority encouraged the military greatly while the civilians were kept in the background. But in spite of such defiance towards the army, a sound political leadership could not be brought forward to stand against military power and to keep them confined to their barracks. The civilian power that has governed the country encompasses two families monopoly i.e. the Bhutto and Sharif


Significance Tourism has been identified as a priority sector to drive economic recovery in the government’s recent strategy, as well as in the recovery strategies agreed by business and labour, but the sector’s revival will likely take time. Impacts The government will face growing pressure to accelerate long promised reforms such as e-visas and visa waivers to boost overseas tourism. Efforts to create a more enabling environment for international tourists could be undercut by worsening crime levels amid rising employment. Industry proposals to create a new ZAR15bn (USD1bn) enhanced tourism support fund between government and business have yet to materialise.


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