Threats to China’s future worsen

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tipping Point ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Generational Change ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Economic Risks

Subject Overview of the political and economic risks facing China. Significance China faces formidable threats to its political and economic stability, ranging from the urgent to the insidious. Impacts Economic risks include demographic ageing, debt, automation and the 'middle-income trap'. Significant political risks include a backlash against Xi’s rise at home and a backlash against China’s rise internationally. Critical uncertainties include international crises, the consequences of generational change and the risk of an environmental tipping point.

Fiscal crisis will raise political risks in Iraq

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
War Effort ◽  
State Group ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance The political establishment has given strong backing to the budget cuts ordered by Abadi. The 2016 budget has been amended to account for the collapse of Iraq's planned 2016 euro-bond issue and spending cuts. However, even its amended final version has significant weaknesses. Impacts Petrodollar allocations to oil-producing provinces will be cut. Non-oil investment spending in Iraq will be almost entirely curtailed. The fiscal crisis will not directly affect the war effort against Islamic State group. Political pressure and protests may grow against the Abadi government.

COVID-19 may hurt Singapore most in South-east Asia

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Deficit Spending ◽  
Economic Risks

Subject Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on South-east Asia. Significance South-east Asia is uniquely exposed to the economic risks associated with COVID-19 because the region’s supply chains, labour flows and tourism industries are heavily reliant on China, where the virus originated and has had the greatest impact. Meanwhile, the threat to public health from the spread of the virus brings political risks for the region’s governments. Impacts Countries with weak healthcare systems, such as Myanmar and Laos, would struggle to deal with severe COVID-19 outbreaks. South-east Asian governments will put in place more expansive travel bans and stricter quarantine measures as the virus spreads. Across the region, mitigation packages put together by governments in response to COVID-19 will drive deficit spending this year.

Prospects for Africa in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Regional Disparities ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Risks

Subject Prospects for Africa in the second quarter. Significance Nigeria's tightly-contested election dominates the political outlook in the coming quarter, posing an unprecedented test for the democratic credentials and institutions of the continent's largest economy. Economically, oil exporters face fiscal and foreign exchange earnings falls, putting a drag on regional growth rates. Regional disparities are also significant. Oil importers can expect a boost to budgetary and external accounts. However, the mixed global outlook will usher in other economic risks.

Brazil's political risk may rise sharply post-2018

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Political Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Broad Agreement ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Structural Risk ◽  
Severe Recession

Subject The longer-term outlook for political stability. Significance Between the 1994 and 2014 presidential elections, Brazil was governed under a complex but functional 'coalition presidential system', with the presidency controlled by either the centre-left Workers' Party (PT) or the centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB). Both parties had much in common -- from a broad agreement on economic policy to a strategy of forming large and heterogeneous coalitions to deal with the highly atomised Congress. In recent years, this system suffered an implosion provoked by the severe recession and the corruption investigations that have undermined the electoral prospects of much of the political mainstream. Impacts A focus on Rousseff's impeachment misses the key political risks in Brazil. Without a comprehensive political reform, politics will tend to instability. This structural risk is often not on the radar of key economic players.

New law creates difficulties for foreign NGOs in China

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Rights ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Legal Reform ◽  
Gender Issues ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Default Position ◽  
And Gender

Subject China's overseas NGO law. Significance China's first law governing the activities of overseas NGOs affects some 7,000 overseas NGOs that now operate in the country. The law aims to channel the energies and resources of overseas NGOs towards fulfilling state policy objectives while controlling the political risks posed by their presence. Impacts The default position of illegality makes this a convenient juncture to screen overseas NGOs and drive out those deemed undesirable. Chinese citizens working with overseas NGOs will come under more scrutiny. Groups working on civil rights, criminal justice, ethnic, labour and gender issues or legal reform may not receive registration. NGOs working on education, conservation, climate change, poverty alleviation, development and health will find registration easier.

Political risks and financial markets: emerging vs developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bechir Ben Ghozzi ◽  
Hasna Chaibi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
The Political ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe authors provide a comparative analysis between emerging and developed financial markets in terms of the effects of political risks on stock market returns and volatility. The authors also examine whether this impact depends on the nature of political risks. Therefore, this study aims to detect which financial markets are the most profitable and the riskiest in terms of political risks.Design/methodology/approachThe authors investigate the impact of political risks on the excess stock market return and its conditional volatility using the generalized ARCH model for a sample of 46 developed and emerging markets over a period ranging from 1995 to 2019. In order to test how the nature of political risks affects equity excess returns and volatility differently in different markets, the authors employ (1) a composite political risk score, (2) the four subgroups of political risks as defined by Bekaert et al. (2005, 2014) and (3) the individual dimensions of political risks.FindingsThe findings indicate that the composite political risk is priced into both stock markets. The effect of political risks is positive for excess returns and negative for volatility. The authors show that the political risk leads to more volatility in developed markets. Nevertheless, the effect of individual components varies according to the market category.Practical implicationsThe authors provide a framework for predicting market returns and volatility using changes in the political risk of the country. The findings help investors make investment decisions based on the political decisions of governments. In other words, investors should consider political uncertainty when determining their expected earnings.Originality/valueThe authors engage monthly panel data methodology in terms of the political risk stock market relationship. In addition, the authors consider recent and very long data covering the period 1995–2019. Furthermore, this study combines three various political risk measures, and both equity returns and volatility.

Bolivia’s Morales may become victim of his own success

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Movements ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
The Political ◽  
Social Changes ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Taxation ◽  
Public Expectations ◽  
Demographic Growth ◽  
Social Sectors

Subject The political longevity of Evo Morales. Significance President Evo Morales last month became Bolivia’s longest-ever serving president, overtaking Victor Paz Estenssoro. Since 2005, Bolivia has experienced an unaccustomed period of political and economic stability. It has also witnessed major social changes that undercut the strength of traditional social movements, increase public expectations and focus discontent on the shortcomings of the state Impacts The pace of urbanisation will persist even though, overall, demographic growth will slow over the next decade. The attention of government will focus increasingly on meeting middle-class demands. Emerging social sectors will remain largely outside the net of direct taxation.

No one can challenge Kagame in Rwandan polls

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Middle Income Country ◽  
Income Country ◽  
The Political ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Republic Of The Congo

Significance The incumbent, President Paul Kagame, is also running after Rwanda voted in 2015 to allow him to extend term limits in a referendum. Rwigara is not the only candidate challenging Kagame, but the political system favours the incumbent and offers little opportunity for a significant opposition challenge. The electoral commission will receive official candidate nominations in the coming weeks before listing qualified candidates in early July. Impacts Kagame’s next term could start with economic challenges if the agricultural sector struggles. Regional insecurity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi poses a risk to domestic stability. The government’s goal of becoming a middle-income country in the 2020s could prove overly ambitious.

Kazakhstan reliant on Russia but not compliant

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Scene ◽  
Economic Function ◽  
Economic Risks

Significance Russia has long had ambitions to invest the EEU with political as well as economic function, but Kazakhstan has resisted this strongly. The Kazakh authorities still see the EEU as a vital mechanism for intra-regional trade. However, proximity to the dominant economy has downsides, and there are signs that Kazakhstan is vulnerable to economic risks emanating from Russia. Impacts The Russian elite seems oblivious to the anger the EEU sanctions issue has created in Kazakhstan. Belarus's new anti-West stance sets it and Russia apart in the five-member EEU. EEU scepticism could shift Kazakh-Russian relations substantially once Nursultan Nazarbayev finally leaves the political scene.

Tax me not: Vodafone's plea to India

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjeev Prashar ◽  
Lokesh Haridoss ◽  
V. Jagadeesh Kumar ◽  
Rashmi Kumar Aggarwal
Keyword(s):  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
International Business ◽  
Business Management ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject area Business environment, international business management. Study level/applicability The case is suitable for students of the business environment, and of international business management. Case overview The case revolves around the reaction of the Finance Ministry of India on Vodafone's tax case and its implications on FDI and the foreign investors who are investing in India. The core issue is the political risk(s) faced by Vodafone even after having won the tax case in the Supreme Court, the highest judiciary body in India. The Government of India has amended the law to bring the tax into retrospective mode and it signifies the impact of political decisions on business organizations. Expected learning outcomes The case can aid in understanding the effects of changes in a political system and legal framework on the efficacy of business entities; and the importance of, and intricacies involved in, the formulation of political risk mitigating strategies while entering into new markets. The key learning outcomes are: understanding various types of political risks faced by multinationals; assessing the political risks involved in foreign investments; and appreciating the possible mitigating strategies to handle such risks. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available, please consult your librarian for access.

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