Bilateral tensions threaten East African integration

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Political Integration ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
African Community ◽  
Economic Slowdown

Significance These tensions have deep and specific roots, but the two-way spillover between trade and political disputes is an issue that has long undermined regional economic and political integration within the wider East African Community (EAC) of which both countries are members. Impacts Trade imbalances and political mistrust will likely delay plans for monetary union. China’s economic slowdown could brake foreign direct investment (FDI) into the EAC, which would, in turn, slow regional growth. Kenyan mediation in the Rwanda-Uganda feud faces claims it seeks to avoid Rwanda rerouting imports via Tanzania instead of Kenya and Uganda.

Rwanda-Burundi tensions threaten regional stability

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Political Integration ◽  
East African ◽  
Regional Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
African Community ◽  
Armed Opposition Groups

Subject Rwanda-Burundi tensions. Significance Following months of angry exchanges, in late January, Rwanda issued a series of arrest warrants against individuals allegedly involved in armed opposition groups based in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It accuses Burundi of supporting those groups. Burundi in turn accuses Rwanda of supporting Burundian armed opposition groups in the DRC. Impacts The tensions will put more strain on the East African Community, which has struggled to strengthen security and political integration. The tensions will be especially detrimental to Burundi’s economy, which has been crippled by years of turmoil and isolation. Rwanda-Uganda tensions have also risen over recent years, but there are indications that Rwanda may look to de-escalate here.

Sovereignty fears may sink East Africa monetary union

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Trade Dispute ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
African Community ◽  
The Eu

Subject Progress in towards an East African monetary union. Significance In November 2013, East African Community (EAC) partner states endorsed the East African Monetary Union (EAMU) Protocol, outlining plans for full monetary union by 2024. For the union to happen, at least three partner states must be willing to cede their monetary policy independence. Furthermore, EAC states have agreed to certain convergence criteria that they will need to meet. Impacts Closer economic and political integration will offer benefits to the EAC even without a monetary union. Domestic taxes will be insufficient to fund projects, forcing increased borrowing to the detriment of convergence criteria. Worsening political crises in South Sudan and Burundi may erode their regional standing and complicate diplomacy. Kenya and Tanzania’s current trade dispute with the EU foreshadows larger regional economic clashes ahead.

East African regional relations face a period of flux

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Nile Basin Initiative ◽  
African Community

Significance This may have a profound effect on East Africa’s two main regional blocs -- the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the East African Community (EAC). Impacts Trade tensions fuelled by incompatible COVID-19 strategies could ease after Burundi and Tanzania changed tack. Tanzanian re-engagement could help reinvigorate stalled regional infrastructure projects. Ethiopia may try to revive region-wide Nile Basin Initiative water talks, partly to isolate Egypt, partly to restore its own standing.

Isolation and drift mar Kenya's foreign policy outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Security ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
External Relations ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
African Community ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for Kenya's external relations. Significance Last week, Uganda overrode its oil pipeline agreement with Kenya by agreeing a rival deal with Tanzania in a major setback for Kenya's ambitions to lead economic integration in the East African Community (EAC), while boosting its own oil export plans. It comes amid several other external challenges, notably the deputy president's case at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and overspill from the Somali conflict. Impacts Deals signed during the president's visit to Israel will likely result in skills and technology transfer to improve Kenya's water security. Recent US airstrikes against an al-Shabaab training site in Somalia will boost the AMISOM mission. However, the EU decision to cut AMISOM funding by 20% will pose longer-term difficulties unless regional states find substitute funding.

Burundi crisis is set to escalate

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
African Community ◽  
Financial Contributions

Significance Violence has increased significantly since President Pierre Nkurunziza was inaugurated in August. The country is under growing international spotlight as fears are growing that the crisis is adopting an ethnic dimension. However, there are more important factors shaping the chances for escalation. Impacts Nkurunziza is unlikely to take on the East African Community (EAC) chairmanship as scheduled at end-November, disrupting regional protocol. The EAC's budget faces strain as Burundi fails to clear its financial contributions and donors consider pulling some funding. Refugee flows from Burundi will rise, straining existing tensions with neighbouring states.

Early oil could stabilise Uganda’s economy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
East African ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Community Convergence ◽  
African Community ◽  
Near Term

Subject Uganda economic outlook. Significance Economic growth could improve to 5.8% in 2018, aided by a recovery in private consumption and increased spending on oil-related and public investments. However, the mounting external debt burden amid the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate tightening cycle could pose near-term challenges, as the shilling’s weakness compounds the government’s growing debt-service obligations. Nevertheless, if managed well, these concerns should ease once oil begins to flow. Impacts Stubbornly high commercial lending rates despite lower policy rates pose the greatest impediment to long-term sustainable growth. The climbdown on potentially lucrative mobile money taxes suggests reluctance to widen the tax base at the risk of social unrest. Currency interventions will be limited by East African Community convergence criteria requiring reserves worth 4.5 months of imports.

Kenya-Tanzania tensions will simmer

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
East African ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
African Community

Significance The trade disputes are emblematic of the difficult relationship between Nairobi and Dodoma, which has been aggravated in recent years by mutual recriminations alleging interference in one another’s elections. These tensions are shaped by deeper rivalries between the two countries, as a rising Tanzania seeks to challenge Kenyan political and economic dominance. Impacts The Tanzanian president’s quick congratulations to Kenyatta, before Odinga has conceded, may take some heat out of interference claims. The East African Community (EAC)'s failure to end the bilateral trade rows will damage its claims to be able to resolve internal disputes. Tensions will slow EAC integration, making plans for currency integration even more remote.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document