May needs momentum for Brexit deal to pass

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Parliamentary Support ◽  
Theresa May

Significance This follows the defeat of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement (WA) for a second time on March 12. Despite parliamentary support, an extension poses risks to all parties and positions on Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May will look for newfound momentum for the WA, which will encourage others to support the deal and get it over the line. Impacts If MPs reject the WA and EU leaders demand national concessions in return for extending Article 50, a no-deal Brexit could happen. Businesses are running out of resources to prepare for worst-case scenarios; an extension to Article 50 could force some to close. Given a long extension, there may be more willingness in the next European Parliament to reopen the WA.

Exit talks may not clarify future UK-EU relationship

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Member State ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance Prime Minister Theresa May has committed herself to triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. No member state has made use of Article 50 and there is thus much uncertainty about what leaving and, more specifically, triggering Article 50 might involve. Impacts May's timetable could be derailed if the Supreme Court decides that the government cannot invoke Article 50 without parliamentary approval. The EU is likely to maintain its firm stance and refuse to engage in any negotiations before Article 50 is triggered. The continued uncertainty over the terms of Brexit is likely to hit business confidence and could deter investments.

EU-UK Brexit talks will gain urgency

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Negative Mood ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Heads Of State ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The summit represented an opportunity for UK Prime Minister Theresa May to discuss her Brexit plans directly with other heads of state and government rather than doing so via the European Commission’s Article 50 task force. Impacts The negative mood music from the Salzburg summit is weakening May’s position in her Conservative Party. The poor personal relationship between May and her Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar is complicating discussions on the Irish border. The unity of the EU27 could crumble once trade negotiations bring their divergent interests to the fore. The EU is maintaining its insistence that there can be no ‘hybrid model’ between Norway and Canada.

Extension beyond May could shift Brexit dynamics

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit extension. Significance Prime Minister Theresa May accepted yesterday the EU’s offer to extend the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU until October 31. The extension gives more time for the ruling Conservatives and the Labour opposition, which are engaged in talks, to reach a compromise and deliver Brexit. Losses suffered in local and possibly European Parliament (EP) elections in May could increase pressure on the respective leaderships to stand down. Impacts A future government could try to overturn any potential legislation protecting a Conservative-Labour Brexit deal. The Conservatives can only oust May if cabinet members withdraw support for her. A pro-Leave Conservative leadership would rather be in government with the Brexit Party than Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party. May could hold indicative votes by proportional representation, and hope that her WA emerges with the most support.

Spain's new government may be unstable and ineffective

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Social Tensions ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance His parliamentary approval only succeeded thanks to abstentions by the Socialist Party (PSOE). He will now form a minority government with the weakest parliamentary support for any prime minister since competitive elections returned to Spain in 1977. Impacts Tax rises, possibly in combination with spending cuts, may trigger a revival of social tensions. In the absence of major policy initiatives, economic growth is likely to slow down in 2017. Rajoy's dependence on PSOE and Citizens collaboration to pass a budget for 2017 by end-November will give them some leverage.

Arbitration row may hurt Zagreb more than Ljubljana

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Direct Access ◽  
Bad Faith ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
Arbitration Process ◽  
National Solidarity ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The arbitration concerens the two countries' borders, most notably in the Bay of Piran. Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic claimed the process had been 'contaminated' by contact between the Slovenian member of the panel and the Slovenian Foreign Ministry's delegate to the court. Slovenia wants the process to continue and accuses Croatia of acting in bad faith and itself contaminating the arbitration process by spying on both the court and Slovenia. The Croatian government maintains parliamentary support was not needed legally; the vote in the Sabor is intended to indicate national solidarity. Impacts Croatia's withdrawal will destabilise the arbitration process and in effect end its work, even if Croatia cannot legally simply pull out. If the process ends, Slovenia will again fail to establish direct access to international waters, after an unratified 2011 deal. Croatia's withdrawal will encourage further border tensions in the region. Antagonising international partners is especially risky for Croatia as its economy is precarious and likely to need assistance.

Pakistan likely to avoid direct involvement in Yemen

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Involvement ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Naval Ship ◽  
Parliamentary Support ◽  
Public Criticism

Significance The Pakistani armed forces are reportedly already involved in the campaign: some troops have been deployed in Saudi Arabia and a naval ship is stationed off the Yemeni coast. However, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government is facing strong public criticism for jumping into this conflict, and has been forced to seek parliamentary support. Parliament's decision will have serious repercussions for Pakistan's Shia-Sunni dynamic and key regional relations. Impacts Sharif's handling of Riyadh will be key to securing future aid, especially for the energy sector. Islamabad will not wish to alienate Tehran over Yemen, even though Yemen is relatively peripheral to Iranian interests. Pakistan's long-standing security ties with Gulf countries will not be fundamentally altered by its decision on Yemen.

United Kingdom's Corbyn unlikely to face coup soon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The centrist, 'Blairite' section of the party has been defeated and largely excluded from leadership positions. Corbyn's past statements and policy stances are widely believed to render him implausible as a potential prime minister, and thus the Labour Party unelectable with him as leader. The likelihood of the governing Conservatives winning the 2020 general election has increased. Impacts Corbyn is likely to back continued UK EU membership in the referendum, helping to protect him from an early party coup. Because of his previous ambivalence, Corbyn's backing for continued EU membership will make it harder for the left to back 'Brexit'. Foreign policy issues will be among the most difficult under Corbyn, both within the party and with the government. Given the government's small majority, Corbyn's win will make parliamentary support for air strikes against Syrian targets harder to secure. Corbyn's win is unlikely to restore Labour's fortunes in Scotland, potentially boosting support for independence.

UK effort to engage EU on Russia may falter

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The statement is tougher than expected, and the EU also recalled its Moscow ambassador for consultations. The EU's shift is a win for UK Prime Minister Theresa May as she attempts to build a multilateral consensus rather than relying solely on unilateral retaliation. Impacts EU sectoral and individual sanctions on Russia will be extended in July and September despite reluctance among some members. Talk of blocking Russian natural gas imports is impracticable. The US Congress will pressure the White House to target individuals identified in January 2018 'oligarch list'.

An opening of the Brexit deadlock nears

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Alternative Plan ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit outlook. Significance If Prime Minister Theresa May can get the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and Political Declaration on future relations approved in Parliament this week, the United Kingdom should leave the EU on May 22. However, it remains unlikely that her deal will gain a parliamentary majority, setting up a different deadline. The United Kingdom must come up with an alternative plan by April 12 or face the prospect of crashing out of the EU with no deal. Impacts The United Kingdom could have a new prime minister within weeks; a general election cannot be ruled out. The EU will remain distracted by Brexit as it heads into a season of political change beginning with European Parliament elections in May. As a final option, May could commit to resigning to get support for the WA from Conservative Party MPs.

Congo's Kabila will try to revive his political base

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
Recent Deal ◽  
Street Protest ◽  
Power Base ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Subject Congo's political outlook. Significance Constitutionally, President Joseph Kabila's second term in office was supposed to end in December, but a recent deal with a portion of the opposition, including the elevation of an opposition figure to prime minister, has delayed elections until at least 2018. Questions remain over whether Kabila intends to run for a third presidential term, which would require a national referendum to change the constitution -- and whether he can maintain enough popular and parliamentary support to withstand the challenge of several opposition figures and a growing street protest movement. Impacts Kabila may use the electoral delay to amend the constitution, offering a legal path to a third term. The president will rely on force and patronage to rebuild his power base in his home province. International donors will consider stiffer sanctions to encourage a peaceful build-up to the 2018 elections.

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