Morocco’s weakened Islamists may yet win elections

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
Consumer Boycotts ◽  
Political Scene ◽  
Islamist Movement

Subject Outlook for the PJD. Significance The new year has already seen several legal, political, and personal controversies involving the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD), currently heading the government. Prime Minister Saadedine El-Othmani is struggling to unite the party and maintain popular support. Impacts There may be a low turnout during the upcoming 2020 elections as Moroccans grow disillusioned by the lack of genuine reform. The Palace’s continued domination of politics and the economy may lead to informal mobilisation, likely in the form of consumer boycotts. Benkirane is unlikely to oppose the party openly to avoid weakening it, though he may become more vocal on the political scene. Morocco’s other Islamist movement, Justice and Spirituality, is unlikely to opt for direct political participation to avoid the PJD’s fate. Given the government’s passive role in policy decisions, international actors will prefer to negotiate directly with the Palace.

Likely Israeli coalition will quickly step up spending

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
The Political ◽  
Equal Division ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Composition and agenda of a likely unity government. Significance De facto opposition leader Benny Gantz on March 26 agreed to enter a coalition with incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The government, terms for which have yet to be finalised, would end the political deadlock that three back-to-back elections failed to break. Although the prospective coalition will enjoy a Knesset majority of at least 75 seats, it will also cover a wide and awkward ideological spectrum. Impacts Netanyahu will remain the dominant figure on the political scene for another 18 months, if not beyond. Equal division of portfolios between Blue and White and religious-right parties will mean a more moderate government than the previous one. Gantz’s decision has split his party and leaves the centre-left weaker and more divided than ever. The new coalition will address issues that have been put on hold during the extended interregnum and restore normal government functioning.

Invalid Hungarian referendum will gain Orban little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance. Significance Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation. Impacts The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis. Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results. The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Peacekeeper withdrawal advances Abe's defence agenda

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Cover Up ◽  
Self Defence

Subject Japan's participation in UN peacekeeping operations. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration will withdraw Japan's Ground Self Defence Force (GSDF) mission from the UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) in South Sudan in May. The decision follows accusations that the government covered up evidence of the dangers the troops were facing, and raises potential questions about Japan’s commitment to its policy of a ‘proactive contribution to peace’. Impacts The announcement of withdrawal will reduce the political impact if there are casualties. Defence Minister Tomomi Inada will probably survive accusations of a cover-up, with ministry officials taking the blame. Japan will contribute personnel to UNPKOs again in future, to gain experience and earn goodwill internationally. There will be minimal implications for Japan's other security cooperation efforts, which focus on deterring China and North Korea.

Malaysia's Najib faces continuing challenge from 1MDB

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Investment ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.

Pakistan’s Sharif may call snap polls to save future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Joint Investigation ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Government

Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.

Mauritania opposition crackdown aims at 2019 election

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gold Mine ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Scene

Significance Journalists say the move is part of a wider crackdown that includes a judicial campaign against senate members who dispute the government’s right to abolish the upper house after winning a constitutional referendum on August 5. Officially, the focus of the crackdown is concern that an exiled businessman, Mohamed Bouamatou, may be financing opponents of the regime. However, the strategy also has a wider intimidatory effect on opponents and independent voices that might scrutinise the government. Mohamed Ould Ghadda, one of the most prominent critics, is already in jail, journalists and trade unionists have been subjected to questioning and the state prosecutor is pursuing other senators. Impacts The senate’s abolition removes a key institutional channel through which opponents can try to hold the government to account. Abdelaziz will become even more dominant on the political scene now that the senate has been shut down. The start of gas exports from the Tortue field in 2021 and expansion of the Tasiast gold mine will boost the government’s confidence.

Prospects for Israel in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Prospects for Israel in 2020. Significance The political scene is currently in deadlock after a second inconclusive election in September; Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition Blue and White alliance, currently has the mandate to form the next coalition after incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu failed. Talks are ongoing around how to form a national unity government.

UK ‘levelling-up’ agenda will likely disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
The South ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Corporation Tax ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Successful Vaccine ◽  
The Government

Significance ‘Levelling up’ has always been an objective of UK governments, but the political pressure on this government is huge as the Conservatives looks to hold onto many of the ‘left-behind’ constituencies they won in the 2019 general election. Impacts Leveraging corporation tax to fund left behind regions may discourage investment in high-value services in London and the south-east. Concerns over the constitutional future of Scotland will further discourage the government from considering regional devolution. The opening of society in the coming months amid a successful vaccine rollout could give an important boost to Johnson’s popular support.

Malaysia's prime minister is secure, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Political Position ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Organisation

Subject The political crises facing the government. Significance Prime Minister Najib Razak faces his worst array of political crises to date. These include alleged mismanagement of one of Malaysia's sovereign wealth funds, controversial tightening of security legislation and the potentially inflationary implementation of a goods and services tax. Personal criticism by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad compounds these difficulties, although the leadership of Najib's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has rallied around him. Impacts If Najib's political position worsens, pressure will grow within UMNO to replace him. By-elections in May will be bellwethers for public perceptions of the opposition and governing coalition's popularity. The 'hudud' controversy could split the opposition coalition during parliament's next session.

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