New EU plan for online extremism has modest promise

Significance Proposed measures include a plan outlined by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in September, wherein the EU would oblige technology firms to remove terrorist and extremist content within one hour of being notified by the authorities or face fines of up to 4% of their annual turnover. Impacts Social media firms will invest more in automated filters -- regardless of their drawbacks. Removing extremist online content may impair law enforcement work by limiting their access to relevant materials and networks. Terrorist and extremist outfits will adapt to evade filters.

Subject The possible economic impact of the EU investment plan (the 'Juncker Plan'). Significance The EU investment plan launched by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker just over a year ago has made a slow start. This will encourage doubts that have existed since the scheme's inception about its operation and likely impact. Impacts Even by 2020, the EU economy will still probably require every effort to boost growth and make up for lost investment. Given continuing strong demand for high-grade bonds and equity investments, it should be possible to achieve the fundraising target. The plan could become a vehicle for Chinese investment into the EU: China is talking of 5-10 billion euros in future investments. The geographical distribution of funded projects could be politically sensitive within the EU. The plan could come under scrutiny during the UK EU referendum campaign; UK projects may come too late to have an impact before the vote.


Subject Election meddling. Significance With elections due in the EU, Canada and Australia in 2019 and the United States next year, social media firms have made significant efforts to prevent further misuse of their platforms. These efforts are likely to be effective, and manipulation of the kind attempted between 2016 and 2018 will not re-occur. However, the nature of the adversary has changed. The platforms are at risk of preparing to re-fight yesterday’s battles. Impacts Containing the spread of harmful content via fringe platforms is a significant regulatory challenge. Governments may increase their reliance on offensive cybersecurity campaigns to contain foreign interference. Increased privacy on Facebook will make policing fake content harder as the platform will have restricted access to user content.


Significance The OSB will impose a duty of care on internet companies, particularly social media firms and search engines, to protect their users from a range of online harms, both legal and illegal. The communications regulator Ofcom will oversee and enforce compliance, and issue codes of practice that companies must follow. Impacts Due to their narrower focus, EU rules on tackling online harmful activity will likely be easier to enforce. Regulating illegal and harmful activity on encrypted services remains the hardest policy challenge. The sheer volume of online content means that reliance on (imperfect) automated filters is unavoidable. Western rules on harmful online content will be studied carefully in other countries grappling with similar problems such as India. Since OSB will primarily target US ‘big tech’, the issue will further strain US-UK relations.


2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-38
Author(s):  
Susan White

Synopsis Groupon, an online coupon company, was one of many companies that considered an initial public offering (IPO) during what might be a second technology/internet/social media IPO boom in 2011. Some companies chose to postpone their IPOs, while others took advantage of the media attention focussed on technology companies, and in particular, social media firms. Should investors hop on the tech IPO bandwagon, or hold off to better evaluate the long-term prospects of tech companies, and in particular social media companies? Would the valuation of Groupon justify an investment in IPO shares? Research methodology The case was researched from secondary sources, using Groupon's IPO filing information, news articles about the IPO and industry research sources, such as IBIS World. Relevant courses and levels This case is appropriate for an advanced undergraduate or MBA corporate finance or investment elective. Most introductory finance classes do not have the time to cover later chapters in a finance textbook, where information about IPOs is generally found. It could also be used at the end of a core finance course, where the instructor wanted to introduce this topic through a case study of a hard-to-value internet-based company to illustrate the difficulties in setting IPO prices. The case could also be used in an equity analysis class, an entrepreneurial finance class or an investment class, to spur discussion about valuing an internet company and choosing appropriate investments for pension fund investing. This case could also be used in a strategy class, focussing on the five forces question, and eliminating the valuation question. Theoretical basis There is a great deal of literature about IPOs and their long-term performance. An excellent source is Jay R. Ritter's research, http://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter, which has a longer time period and more data than could be contained in this case. IPO puzzles include persistent undervaluing of IPOs; in other words, the offer price is lower than, and sometimes substantially lower than, the first day close price. A second issue is the generally poorer long-run performance of companies after their IPO when compared to similar firms that did not do an IPO.


Subject Uganda's social media tax. Significance Uganda in July began implementing a set of new taxes on internet-based services. These include a daily fee for use of ‘over-the-top’ (OTT) social media platforms (such as WhatsApp, Twitter or Facebook), and a tax on mobile money transactions. However, the measures have been fiercely opposed by the public and have drawn widespread condemnation as an infringement on freedom of speech. Impacts Nigeria is also mulling a social media tax; all sides will use the Uganda situation in ways that support their own views in that debate. Zambia’s government may use a proposed set of tough cybercrime laws to stifle dissent ahead of President Edward Lungu’s re-election bid. Tanzania will resist calls to reform new regulations requiring bloggers to pay for licenses to post online content.


Subject Bulgaria’s assumption of the EU presidency. Significance European Council President Donald Tusk and Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker used the official inauguration of Bulgaria’s six-month stint in the EU presidency to demonstrate support for Bulgaria and its Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, and thus deflect widespread scepticism and criticism of Bulgaria’s EU trajectory since accession in 2007. Their hosts responded by underlining their unflinching support for EU institutions and initiatives (notably on migration quotas), and playing up Bulgaria’s stabilising role regarding the Western Balkans and Turkey. Impacts During its EU presidency, Bulgaria’s establishment will be most attentive to criticism coming from EU institutions and leading EU countries. The presidency will focus on showing Bulgaria in a positive light, while avoiding drawing attention to its reform deficit. Bulgaria's influence over problem areas and countries is limited and contingent on factors mostly beyond its control.


Subject The EU’s plastic waste strategy. Significance The European Commission on January 16 published a strategy for tackling plastic waste, setting a goal of making all plastic packaging recyclable by 2030. The strategy comes amid growing concerns about the damage caused by plastic pollution, particularly to the marine environment, and a ban by the Chinese government on imports of certain types of waste including several plastics. Impacts Meeting the Commission’s goals for recycling could cost between 8 and 16 billion euros over the next 30 years. Greater investments in recycling could generate 200,000 jobs in the sector across the EU. North-western EU members may be best placed to take advantage of opportunities arising from greater emphasis on recycling.


Subject Russian influence in Bosnia. Significance Russia seems much more adept at playing the Balkan political game than the EU or the United States. Thanks to that and the gradual weakening of Bosnia’s EU perspective, Russia has managed to fill the EU vacuum and establish influence over Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) with a minimum of investment. Impacts BiH could achieve EU candidate status in 2019 if it can satisfy the European Commission that it is meeting required conditions. The EU’s much stronger economic relations with Balkan states will limit Russian influence. Russia’s presence in both Bosnia and Serbia will continue to take the form solely of being able to influence Serbs.


Significance The EU has exercised significant authority over the digital economy in areas ranging from data privacy and antitrust to illegal state aid and social media disinformation. Under President Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission is maintaining the pace of digital policy and regulation. Impacts The digital package will intensify the debate on where the balance should lie between national and EU regulatory responsibilities. EU willingness to apply core elements of the UK approach to digital competition is a bright spot in the otherwise fraught Brexit talks. Post-Brexit, UK and EU authorities are likely to cooperate on digital taxation at the OECD level. Online disinformation will remain an extremely difficult policy area.


Significance The bill will move to the Senate, where Republicans fear it over-reaches into states’ powers to manage elections. The standoff takes place within the context of the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, in which Russians interfered via informational techniques and social media. The bill is designed to prevent another such occurrence, but the ability for actors to manipulate election results is more far-reaching than the methods addressed in this bill. Impacts The bill would authorise federal money annually to improve and maintain states’ election systems. Social media firms will face more government and public pressure to prevent foreign election interference via their platforms. Social media firms will find it difficult to police their platforms without increasing editorial control.


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