Bavaria elections spell trouble for German coalition

Significance The governing Christian Social Union (CSU), sister party of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), suffered a serious blow in Bavaria's October 14 federal state elections, underscoring the wider decline of the CDU/CSU in Germany. Its setback, as well as the poor result for the Social Democrats (SPD), Merkel’s junior coalition partner, will have implications at the national level. Impacts If Merkel were to fall, Bundestag President Wolfgang Schaeuble could serve as stop-gap chancellor. In 2019’s state elections, the AfD could emerge as the largest party in several eastern states. Merkel could withdraw support for the CSU’s Manfred Weber, who wants to run for the European Commission presidency.

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujayita Bhattacharjee ◽  
Sanjukta Sattar

PurposeThe lives of the poor in the urban spaces of India are filled with hardships. They live amidst poverty and struggle to survive within other problems such as insecure jobs, lack of proper housing, unsanitary conditions and low levels of health immunity. This vulnerable section of the population has been rendered furthermore vulnerable by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in ways that were never imagined before. Taking this into consideration, the purpose of this article is to examine the vulnerability of the poor in the urban settings of India with special reference to Mumbai in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology adopted in the study is based on the analysis of secondary data and content analysis of the existing literature. In addition to this, the study also makes use of certain narratives of the urban poor in Mumbai that have been captured by various articles, reports and blogs.FindingsThe findings of the study reveal how the urban poor of India, with special reference to Mumbai, the financial capital of India, has emerged as the worst sufferers of the socioeconomic crisis caused by the social distancing and lockdown measures imposed for combating the pandemic.Originality/valueThe study tries to explore the reality of the urban poor's right to the city in the wake of the pandemic.


Significance This autumn, bitter conflict between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) ended a brief period of centre-right rule, after years of domination by the Social Democrats (PSD). Former army chief Nicolae Ciuca heads the government, which the PSD dominates alongside a much-weakened PNL. Impacts The government may struggle to persuade a suspicious populace to back vaccination, given previous PSD reluctance for anti-COVID-19 measures. The pandemic may deter civil society from mobilising against abuses of power to the extent it did during the last PSD government. The government's dilemma will be curbing the justice system's independence without provoking a strong EU reaction.


Subject Kyrgyzstan's constitutional referendum. Significance Now that President Almazbek Atambayev has secured the constitutional changes he wanted, it is unclear how he benefits. The December 11 referendum was a success in its own terms despite the dearth of public understanding of the issues, but was accompanied by an acrimonious divorce between the ruling Social Democratic Party and its long-term coalition partner, Ata-Meken. Impacts A weaker government and divided parliament will struggle to focus on chronic and serious economic problems. The Social Democrats are in a stronger position nationwide thanks to their strong showing in simultaneous local elections. Kyrgyz nationalist and conservative groups will feel emboldened as some of the amendments are seen as concessions to them.


Significance This is a lower forecast than the 170,000 the agency predicted in October, before Sweden reimposed controls at its border with Denmark. The immigration issue is causing strains within the minority two-party coalition government. The junior Green Party has lost several key battles in the last couple of months and is said to be questioning its participation in the government. Some scepticism has crept into the ranks of the Social Democrats as well, with several senior members encouraging the leadership to form a new government with the Moderate Party. Impacts With so many asylum seekers already in the country, Sweden's infrastructure will be pushed to the limit. Every misstep will cause further problems for the government. The Greens will either be allowed to push their own agenda within the government, or will break away. With polls showing a clear majority for the opposition, the temptation to bring down the government may prove too hard to resist. If the opposition joins forces to submit a budget proposal in the autumn, the current minority government must resign.


Significance This comes after the sudden resignation of Vice Chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner as head of the OeVP, announced on May 10, precipitated a government crisis. His successor as party leader, 30-year-old Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, two days later unilaterally declared the collapse of the grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPOe) live on television, demanding a snap parliamentary election. Impacts Kurz is likely to represent a more critical line on the EU, pushing for reforms. Bad blood between the SPOe and the OeVP could open the door for a coalition with the FPOe even if it incurs losses. As in France, there is a trend towards personality politics in a country where political parties have traditionally been dominant.


Subject Romania after Dragnea. Significance For much of the last five years that Liviu Dragnea controlled the Social Democrats (PSD), he also dominated the Romanian state politically. His 42-month sentence for corruption, handed down on May 27, has opened up a vacuum in the ruling PSD, and there is no obvious successor. The verdict came immediately after two electoral blows -- massive defeat in the European Parliament (EP) elections; and a resounding rebuff in a non-binding referendum in which over 80% opposed PSD attempts to amend or cancel anti-corruption legislation. Impacts President Iohannis is likely to assert himself in foreign policy, but has lost leverage in deciding senior judicial appointments. The presidential election this autumn may not be crucial in the tussle for power, as the presidency has much-reduced powers. The EU will be highly critical of Romania’s fast-increasing budget deficit, a legacy of the Dragnea era.


Subject Austria's election implications. Significance The Austrian People’s Party (OVP) will stay in power after winning 37.54% of the vote in the September 29 snap elections -- a gain of over 5 percentage points from the 2017 election. Its objective is now to form a coalition. It could either renew the centre-right alliance with the Freedom Party (FPO), or realign itself towards the centre by going into government with the Social Democrats (SPO) or the Green Party. Finding a coalition that provides a balance between stability and policy cohesion will be difficult. Impacts Foreign intelligence services may remain sceptical about cooperating with Austria if the far-right FPO returns to government. The rise of the Green Party will put pressure on the OVP to pay more attention to popular climate and environmental policies. Austria will continue to support the strengthening of the EU’s external borders and fast-tracking the repatriation of illegal migrants.


Significance The Homeland Union-Christian Democrat (TS-LDK)-led government sworn in on December 11 will make no changes to Lithuania’s US- and EU-aligned and anti-Moscow foreign policy. The conservative-liberal cabinet is more coherent than its predecessor, the country’s youngest (average age 42) and its most female (six ministers out of 14). Impacts Government policy will absorb previous cabinets’ good practice. Lithuania’s democratic political culture will improve after the toxic rule of the LZVS-led coalition. The opposition will be divided on values but agree on social issues, with the Social Democrats contributing to human rights policies.


2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Sarpong ◽  
Ibrahim B. Nabubie

Purpose – The paper aims to focus on how the dualism “petty trading and traffic” exacerbates the development of a social bond among traders from various communities and ethnic groups in Ghana. As understood in their normal innocuous sense, “traffic and petty trading” independently mark off two generally distinguishable exclusive partners. However, both petty trading and traffic now denote essential aspects of contemporary Ghana’s new social order shared uniquely among informal traders. The paper dilates on this phenomenon. Design/methodology/approach – The theory underpinning this study is social constructionism. Social constructionism is part of a post-modern understanding of the nature of reality. It is a strand of sociology, pertaining to the ways in which social phenomena are created, institutionalised and made into tradition by humans. The core idea of constructionism, therefore, is that some social agent produces or controls some object. ’s (1967) situational constraints thesis also provides an important element to this paper. The thesis maintains that the poor in society are constrained by the facts of their situation; hence, the poor are unable to translate many of their ideals into reality in view of the considerable poverty that engulfs them. The thesis, reiterates that once the constraints of poverty are removed, the poor would have no difficulty adopting mainstream behavioural patterns and seizing available opportunities. The thesis is significant in exploring the objectives of this paper. Findings – The paper finds that petty trading has given its adherents a new wave of life. The picture that emerges is that, although street hawkers are seen as a nuisance, a failure in society and lacking knowledge, they have become mindful of what society thinks about them. As a result, some have devised means to cope with what they do and also to find new ways to address the challenges facing them. The findings confirmed that people are self-reflexive beings and that they shape their own behaviour despite the influence of a variety of social factors that may constrain them. The study found that street hawkers have found a way to make life more meaningful for themselves than are actually perceived. Originality/value – The paper seeks to discover the daily lives of petty traders, which have been stealthily tied in to urban development and planning. It brings a new dimension to the issue of petty trading. The fundamental argument of the paper is that the multidimensional nature of poverty is leading petty traders to a new consciousness which bodes well for them. These traders are shaping their own behaviour despite the influence of a variety of social factors that may constrain them. The social bond and interrelationship that permeate their working relationship has created a basis for which they now forge close ties that promote an inclusion from the exclusion that they are generally enjoined to.


Significance Relations between Germany and Turkey have taken a turn for the worse since the attempted coup on July 15-16. Faced with a widening crackdown on the Turkish opposition, a spillover of tensions into Germany and signs of a party rebellion against her migrant policy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel cannot afford to push for new concessions to preserve the controversial migrant deal. Impacts Only partial suspension of the deal, with Turkey continuing to prevent mass migration, would contain tensions and limit pressure on the EU. Upcoming elections in two German states could see the populist AfD gain votes, strengthening Merkel's critics. A tougher stance on Tu rkey may increase abstention among German-Turkish voters, hurting primarily the Social Democrats and the Greens.


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