Overheating may tighten Central Europe monetary policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
Capital Outflows

Significance The meetings are expected to provide forward guidance on monetary policy. With consumer prices reaching a five-and-a-half year high in Hungary and a seven-month high in the Czech Republic, attention has turned to the future trajectory of Central European (CE) interest rates. Tightening would run against the populist streak of governments in both Prague and Budapest. Impacts Rate hikes in the Czech Republic and eventually also in Hungary by mid-2019 may contribute to a broad-based slowdown in growth next year. Tighter rates may moderate the headline inflation rate in January-June 2019, partly offsetting the negative impact of economic overheating. CE currencies may gradually strengthen, helping to shield against excessive capital outflows, as global liquidity conditions tighten. Some monetary policy divergence is likely within CE, as Poland’s central bank is unlikely to push for higher interest rates before end-2019.

scholarly journals Loose Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment of Manufacturing Firms in the Czech Republic

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-385
Author(s):  
Veronika Kajurová ◽  
Dagmar Linnertová
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Effect

Abstract The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effects of loose monetary policy on corporate investment of manufacturing firms in the Czech Republic during the period between 2006 and 2015. The main focus of the paper is on the effect of low interest rates on investment activity of Czech firms; additionally, the effects of interactions between interest rate and other firm-specific variables are investigated. The results indicate that corporate investment is positively associated with firm size, investment opportunities, and long term debt. Also, a negative effect of the cash position is found. Further, the findings show that monetary policy is a significant determinant of firm investment activity: when the monetary policy is loose, investment is positively affected. Furthermore, differences in the determinants of investment between highly and low leveraged firms were revealed.

scholarly journals Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic – Granger approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (No. 7) ◽  
pp. 347-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Poměnková ◽  
S. Kapounek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Interest Rate

Monetary policy analysis concerns both the assumptions of the transmission mechanism and the direction of causality between the nominal (i.e. the money) and real economy. The traditional channel of monetary policy implementation works via the interest rate changes and their impact on the investment activity and the aggregate demand. Altering the relationship between the aggregate demand and supply then impacts the general price level and hence inflation. Alternatively, the Post-Keynesians postulate money as a residual. In their approach, banks credit in response to the movements in investment activities and demand for money. In this paper, the authors use the VAR (i.e. the vector autoregressive) approach applied to the “Taylor Rule” concept to identify the mechanism and impact of the monetary policy in the small open post-transformation economy of the Czech Republic. The causality (in the Granger sense) between the interest rate and prices in the Czech Republic is then identified. The two alternative modelling approaches are tested. First, there is the standard VAR analysis with the lagged values of interest rate, inflation and economic growth as explanatory variables. This model shows one way causality (in the Granger sense) between the inflation rate and interest rate (i.e. the inflation rate is (Granger) caused by the lagged interest rate). Secondly, the lead (instead of lagged) values of the interest rate, inflation rate and real exchange rate are used. This estimate shows one way causality between the inflation rate and interest rate in the sense that interest rate is caused by the lead (i.e. the expected future) inflation rate. The assumptions based on money as a residual of the economic process were rejected in both models.

In search for a new anchor: inflation targeting in the czech republic

2000 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiří Jonáš
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Fourth Part ◽  
National Bank ◽  
New Framework ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework

In December 1997 the Czech National Bank introduced a new framework for the conduct of monetary policy, inflation targeting. This article examines the preliminary experience with inflation targeting in the Czech Republic. In the second part, we discuss the reasons that have led the Czech National Bank to introduce this monetary policy framework. Third part describes principal operational features of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic, and discusses the specifics of inflation targeting under the conditions of an economy in transition. Fourth part reviews the conduct of monetary policy under the new regime, focusing particularly on how the new policy framework has affected central bank's decisions about interest rates. Fifth part discusses some reasons why implementation of inflation targeting during the first two years was difficult, and sixth part evaluates the experience with inflation targeting and provides some suggestions for improving the framework.

Czech monetary divergence is set to end

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
Wait And See

Significance Hampl was interviewed on August 29, after the CNB announced its first rate rise in more than nine years on August 3. He said faster growth made debating further monetary policy tightening "relevant". A gradual period of normalisation in monetary policy across Central Europe (CE) seems to be under way. Impacts The CNB could raise rates sooner than expected if there is an unexpected rise in capital outflows. In Poland, weak core inflation is expected to encourage the central bank to retain its 'wait and see' stance regarding future rate rises. Hungary's central bank may be the last in the region to hike interest rates; no change is expected before mid-2018.

scholarly journals Are Central Banks In CEE Countries Concerned About The Burden Of Public Debt?

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Markov Switching Model ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Switching Model

The aim of this study is to analyze the monetary policy rules in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, with public debt as an additional explanatory variable. We estimate linear rules by the GMM estimation and non-linear rules, using the Markov-switching model. Our findings suggest that in the Czech Republic and Poland the monetary authorities respond to growing public debt by lowering interest rates, while in Hungary the opposite may be observed. Moreover, we distinguish between passive and active monetary policy regimes and find that the degree of interest rate smoothing is lower and the response of the central banks to inflation and/or output gap is stronger in an active regime. In the passive regime, the output gap seems to be statistically insignificant.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Before and After the Financial Crisis and Its Economic and Legislative Impacts – Case of The Czech Republic

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liběna Černohorská ◽  
Jana Janderová ◽  
Veronika Procházková
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Before And After ◽  
National Economies

The article analyses monetary policy response to the world financial crisis and focuses more closely on the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) at this time. Until 2007, the implementation of monetary policy in OECD countries was perceived very positively. However, the financial crisis has clearly shown that the world’s financial markets are highly interconnected, and this can have a major impact on individual national economies. Therefore, the monetary policy strategy has changed from a policy based on the so-called flexible inflation targeting. Ensuring price stability is emphasised as part of the monetary policy role of the CNB in the provisions of Article 98 of the Constitution, in the Czech Republic. CNB is perceived as one of the most independent central banks, the contituional dimension of its independence being confirmed by case law of the Czech Constitutional Court. In response to the financial crisis, CNB was forced to pursue unconventional monetary policy in the form of foreign exchange interventions between 2013 and 2017. However, during the time period of these interventions, CNB policy did not lead to achievement of the inflation target. Following the completion of foreign exchange interventions, CNB returned to conventional monetary policy through interest rates.

Fed move boosts tight Latin American monetary policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Subject The impact of US monetary policy tightening. Significance Following the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) historic decision to raise rates for the first time since 2006, the start of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is accentuating the hawkish stance of Latin America's main central banks. This comes amid a dramatic sell-off in commodity markets, persistent concerns about China's economy and a severe deterioration in economic conditions across the region. Impacts EM asset prices have remained relatively resilient to the rise in US interest rates, in stark contrast to the 'taper tantrum' in 2013. Hitherto-resilient regional local currency government bond markets will face foreign capital outflows due to falling commodity prices. The Brazilian real is 2015's worst-performing major EM currency, but due largely to political and economic difficulties at home.

Hungarian monetary policy risks disorderly forint fall

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Eu

Significance This is despite a spike in core inflation. The three central banks of Central Europe (CE) are on a loosening cycle, responding aggressively to the COVID-19-induced collapse in growth while expecting the contraction to bring down core inflation rates later this year. Impacts PMI surveys for Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic show persistent expectations of contraction. The Commission expects Czech GDP to contract this year by 7.75%, the pandemic disrupting foreign demand for export-oriented manufacturing. Hungarian GDP is to shrink by 7% with labour market deterioration curbing household consumption and falling exports hurting the auto sector. Contraction in Poland’s resilient and diversified economy by just 4.5% in 2020 is forecast to be the least-bad in the EU. Hungary’s mixed record in handling of the crisis could put the ruling Fidesz party’s position at risk.

Prospects for Central Europe in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
West European

Subject Prospects for Central Europe in 2020. Significance While continuing to outperform their West European peers in 2020, the economies of Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will show increasing signs of succumbing to the effects of the sharp German-led industrial downturn in the euro-area. However, monetary policy across the region will remain firmly on hold (with the possible exception of the Czech Republic), as CEB economies continue to enjoy strong wage growth, particularly Hungary and Estonia.

Trade uncertainty makes interest rates less effective

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Jackson Hole ◽  
Market Outlook

Subject Financial market outlook. Significance At the annual gathering last month of the world’s central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, policymakers acknowledged that the economic uncertainty that the US-China trade conflict is generating was undermining the efficacy of monetary policy. James Bullard, the president of the St Louis Federal Reserve (Fed), warned that developed countries are experiencing a “regime shift” in economic conditions, in which trade-war-induced uncertainty -- and the unpredictability of US policy more broadly -- is becoming a permanent feature of policymaking, sapping the potency of forward guidance and overburdening monetary policy. Impacts Since the US tariff increase in May, the global stock of negative-yielding bonds has surged above 16 trillion dollars and will rise further. The dollar is at its highest since May 2017 and seems likely to rise further as US growth is far outpacing other major developed markets. The renminbi/dollar rate fell the most on record in August, raising capital outflow risks, most likely to the United States or Japan.

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