Sudan may shift to containment of Two Areas conflict

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberation Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Conflict resolution in Sudan's Two Areas. Significance Peace talks on February 1-4 between the government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/North (SPLM/N) led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu failed to reach a relatively limited deal on a cessation of hostilities and provision of humanitarian assistance. While many outside observers had held high hopes for the talks, the outcome suggests that, even if conflict may remain limited for now, peace is a long way off. Impacts Hilu’s attempts to extend collaboration with other opposition forces, especially Darfur armed groups, will have little material impact. The government will use the military lull to seek outside patronage to bolster the economy and defuse austerity protests. Humanitarian conditions in the Two Areas will continue to worsen.

Myanmar's partial ceasefire faces precarious future

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up. Significance Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8. Impacts The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire. The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period. The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.

Myanmar’s ethnic parties will unite as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Myanmar's political landscape ahead of next year's elections. Significance As the next general election appears on the horizon, parliament last month began debating possible amendments to the constitution. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which controls the civilian portion of government, wants to reduce the military’s reserved parliamentary quota. Meanwhile, the NLD faces increased criticism from parties representing the country’s ethnic minorities. Impacts There is unlikely to be any progress in the country's peace process, aimed at ending conflicts between the military and ethnic armed groups. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party will aim to enhance its internal organisation. As attention turns to the polls, the government will devote even fewer resources than currently to resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis.

Sudan’s partial peace deal builds positive momentum

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberation Movement ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Military ◽  
Significant Milestone

Significance The deal represents a significant milestone in both the peace process and the wider transition. However, it remains only a partial peace, given the absence of the main armed groups in Darfur (the Sudan Liberation Movement/Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM/AW)) and the ‘Two Areas’ (the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North/Abdel Aziz al-Hilu (SPLM-N/al-Hilu)). Impacts The prime minister may seek a more direct role in finalising the peace process, at the expense of Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Himedti’. Integration of rebel groups will expand the bloated military, already a major drain on limited resources. Sharing of natural resource revenues may spur tensions with the military, whose affiliated companies control major mines in conflict areas.

The concept of trust in disasters: the Slovenian experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 603-615
Author(s):  
Marjan Malesic
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the level of public trust in disaster response actors, i.e. the government, civilian disaster response institutions, the military, NGOs and the media. Design/methodology/approach The data source is the 2015–2016 Slovenian Public Opinion Survey, which used face-to-face interviews (computer-assisted personal interviewing software), and a standardised instrument (questionnaire). A two-stage probability sampling design with stratification at the first stage was applied. The first stage involved a probability proportional to size selection of 150 small areas (statistical areas), where the size measurement was a the number of adult persons in the Central Population Register. The second stage involved the simple random sampling of 12 persons from each of the 150 primary sampling units. A total of 1,024 adult residents participated in the survey. Findings The findings suggest that trust in the government under normal situations is low; however, it becomes slightly higher during disaster conditions. Civilian disaster response institutions (especially firemen and civil protection), the military and NGOs (humanitarian and other volunteer organisations) are highly trusted before and during disasters. Trust in the authorities and media to inform the public in a timely and comprehensive manner about the disaster is also relatively high. Research limitations/implications Perhaps in another period of research, disaster-related experiences of the population might be different, which could certainly change the survey results about trust. Nevertheless, the main finding that low pre-disaster trust can be recovered during a disaster by adequate performance of the institution is not jeopardised. Originality/value The survey results are original.

Assessment of corruption in the humanitarian assistance in Puntland State of Somalia

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-118
Author(s):  
Abdinur Abdirisak Sofe
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fear Of Victimization ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government

Purpose Corruption in humanitarian aid is one of the most worried and worst problems around the world. The existence of corruption acts in humanitarian aid delivery can endanger the already susceptible lives of the neediest individuals in the community. Amid serious humanitarian allegation in the country, this study aims to capture meaningful insights in humanitarian aid corruption in Puntland State of Somalia. Design/methodology/approach The study applied qualitative method and used interview as a technique of data collection. The information obtained through the interview was analyzed by quoting and narration forms. Findings The findings indicated numerous acts of corruption in all project stages including corruption in project granting and humanitarian staff employment, distortion of project targets and diversion of humanitarian project from targeted communities. The research also found that governmental and non-governmental actors are involved in the humanitarian corruption such as project managers and support staffs in addition to line ministries, parliament and community representatives. Research limitations/implications Corruption is a taboo and is difficult to research; people do not want to share the information for fear of victimization. Concerned institutions were not willing to provide necessary materials which led to shortage of secondary data. Another problem encountered during the study has been that the humanitarian stakeholders (for instance, government, non-government and private institutions) acted reluctantly to cooperate because of suspicion that disclosing information may lead to negative effect on their business. To overcome the challenges, the study assured the confidentiality of the members and that information collected would be used for research purposes only. The study further combined various tools of data collection so that the weakness of one tool becomes the strength of the other; while the researcher made efforts to build rapport with the research participants. Originality/value This study will contribute to the literature on corruption in the humanitarian aid. Specifically, the findings of this study will benefit academicians/researchers by giving empirical insights of corruption in the humanitarian aid in Puntland. It will benefit the government policymakers in the formulation of policies to combat corruption in the sector. Donors and aid agencies may also find the findings useful as they are key stakeholders who are interested in corruption in the humanitarian sector and finally the findings will benefit the wider society that is the primary victim of corruption in the humanitarian sector.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Iran's military set for more aggressive stance in Gulf

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
General Staff ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Intelligence Collection ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Major General

Significance Tensions between the Gulf states and Iran have escalated significantly in 2016, in the wake of Iran's signing of a landmark deal in 2015 that brought to an end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme. The response of Iran's military to the heightened tensions will be partly influenced by the new chairman of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), the country's top military body, Major General Mohamad Hossein Bagheri. Impacts A more assertive and non-compromising IRGC will increase pressure on President Hassan Rouhani as he seeks re-election in 2017. Improvements in intelligence collection and dissemination are likely in Syria, aimed at reducing Iranian casualties. The military and government are likely to clash soon over the defence budget and its allocation. The government will try to keep the IRGC in check by tipping the media off about alleged financial wrongdoings. With the next US president expected to adopt a harder-line stance on Iran, the diplomatic rapprochement may be reversed partially.

Angola leader could rescind his 2018 retirement pledge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.

Persistent insecurity will test Burkinabe government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Community Support ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Old Regime ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Pace ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Counterterrorism in Burkina Faso. Significance Despite recent gains against jihadist groups, in recent months attacks have moved beyond the more insecure north and started to occur more frequently in the east and parts of the centre. Separately, authorities are growing increasingly intolerant of public dissent and protest, while revelations of abuses by the military risk scuppering crucial local community support necessary for counterinsurgency operations. Impacts The government will face growing political and public pressure to end persistent strikes. Patriotic support for the armed forces remains widespread, but growing revelations of abuse will tarnish its image. Opposition criticisms of the government’s counterterrorism strategy will increase but avoid directly blaming the military. Public dissatisfaction may grow with the Sahel Group of Five (G5) regional force if the slow pace of its operations persists. The prosecution of alleged coup plotter Gilbert Diendere will enjoy public backing amid calls for justice for victims of the old regime.

Watershed Thai election is unlikely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Appeal ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The next election will be the first since the military, led by then general, now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, deposed Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration in May 2014. Impacts The prime minister’s Washington visit later this month will be portrayed as a pre-election display of foreign policy strength. The government will increase public investment for the remainder of this year, at least. This, it hopes, will maintain economic momentum, and strengthen the junta’s popular appeal. The post-election possibility of fresh political interventions by the military will concern investors.

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