Australian government to find 2018 politically tricky

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Australian Government ◽  
New Members ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labor Party ◽  
Opinion Polling ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull reshuffled his cabinet on December 19, including bringing in five new members. He says this brings “new skills and energy to the front bench” and creates a geographically representative balance. The Labor opposition says rifts within the Liberal and National parties, which govern in coalition, are behind the reshuffle. The coalition faces various difficulties in 2018, not least as the federal Labor party maintains its election-winning lead in opinion polling and as economic pressures emerge. Impacts Australian financial services will face more intense scrutiny. If interest rates rise, this could pose problems for indebted households. The cabinet reshuffle could see further intra-coalition frictions.

Political, economic risks rise as Pakistan polls near

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Blunt Tool ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook for 2016. Significance The political turmoil of 2014 subsided over the course of last year, creating confidence in the ability of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's administration to complete its full five-year term to mid-2018. The economy has also regained stability after the slump in 2008-13. This year Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) begins preparations for the 2018 parliamentary elections. Impacts Divestment has proved a blunt tool for public sector reform; future divestments, if they proceed at all, will be no different. Inflation will be under control so long as the oil slump continues, boosting purchasing power. Islamabad will be largely muted on Afghanistan and India ties.

Politics cloud positive Moroccan economic outlook

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Positive Indicators ◽  
Parliamentary Politics ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Effect of politics on the economy. Significance Morocco’s main sources of foreign exchange showed healthy increases across the board in 2017, according to the most recent balance of payments data released in January. However, these positive indicators have been overshadowed by a cloudy political outlook. An intervention by Abdelilah Benkirane, the charismatic former prime minister, has created ructions both within his Justice and Development Party (PJD) and it its governing coalition with five other parties. Impacts Political squabbling plays into the hands of the king: it presents the palace as the most stable and effective institution. However, the devaluation of parliamentary politics could further erode trust in the system, and swell the ranks of protest movements. The political wrangling undermines the government’s economic policy and could sabotage positive investor sentiment.

Farmers' preferences and willingness to pay for microcredit in Benin: results from in-the-field choice experiments in Benin

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (5) ◽  
pp. 665-692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tchekpo Fortune Ogouvide ◽  
Ygue Patrice Adegbola ◽  
Roch Cedrique Zossou ◽  
Afio Zannou ◽  
Gauthier Biaou
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Microfinance Institutions ◽  
Choice Modelling ◽  
Attribute Importance ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThis document analyses farmers' preferences and willingness to pay (CAP) for microcredit, in order to facilitate their access in rural areas.Design/methodology/approachData are based on a discrete choice experiment with 400 randomly selected farmers from 20 villages of the 7 Benin agricultural development hubs (ADHs). The preference choice modelling was performed using mixed logit (MXL) and latent class logit (LCL) models. Farmers' willingness to pay for each preferred attribute was estimated. The endogenous attribute attendance (EAA) model was also used to capture attribute non-attendance (ANA) phenomenon.FindingsThe results indicate that, on average, farmers prefer individual loans, low interest rates, in kind + cash loans, cash loans, disbursement before planting and loans with at least 10-month duration. These preferences vary according to farmers' classes. Farmers are willing to pay higher or lower interest rates depending on attribute importance. The estimate of the EAA model indicates that, when taking the ANA phenomenon into consideration, people will show stronger attitudes regarding WTP for important factors.Research limitations/implicationsBased on these results from Benin, microfinance institutions (MFIs) in developing countries can, based on the interest rates currently charged, attract more farmers as customers, reviewing the combination of the levels of the attributes associated with the nature of the loan, the type of loan (individual or collective), the disbursement period of funds, the waiting period of the loan and the loan duration. However, the study only considered production credit, ignoring equipment or investment credit.Practical implicationsThe document provides information on the key factors that can facilitate producers' access to MFI products and services.Social implicationsFacilitating small farmers' access to financial service will contribute to poverty reduction.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the knowledge of the attributes and attribute levels favoured by farmers when choosing financial products and the amounts they agree to pay for these attributes. The implementation of the results would facilitate small producers' access to financial services; thus contributing to poverty reduction.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Prospects for India to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Diplomacy ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Prospects for India to end-2016. Significance Policymakers are counting on improved agrarian performance, cheaper credit and economic diplomacy to drive growth in coming months. On the political front, after a modest triumph in the last round of regional elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are emboldened but still politically encumbered.

Thai royal wealth draws spotlight as transition nears

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Central Point ◽  
Land Market ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Royal Patronage ◽  
Personal Wealth ◽  
Economic Influence ◽  
Financial Portfolio

Subject Outlook for the Crown Property Bureau. Significance The Crown Property Bureau (CPB), which manages the financial portfolio of the monarchy as well as the king's personal wealth, holds estimated assets equivalent to 10-15% of Thai GDP. As the health of King Bhumipol Adulyadej continues to deteriorate and the nation prepares for a royal transition, the CPB could become a central point of controversy, particularly in the political camp of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his populist 'red shirt' followers. Impacts The land market will remain particularly skewed as long as the CPB exists. The CPB will attract greater scrutiny as debates about inequality gain more political traction. Moreover, further economic liberalisation will gradually reduce the economic influence of royal patronage.

Departure of New Zealand’s Key may open 2017 election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Coalition

Significance The unexpected departure of a popular prime minister opens up more space for opposition parties in the next election due by early November 2017. On Key’s watch, New Zealand weathered the 2007-09 global financial crisis, rebuilt from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, strengthened public finances and kicked off negotiations for the now moribund Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal to tie its export-driven economy to growing markets on the Pacific Rim. Impacts A re-elected National coalition or minority government reliant on New Zealand First would lead to greater policy instability. The next prime minister could inherit the problem of rising interest rates hitting leveraged homeowners. US President-elect Donald Trump’s positions on security, trade and climate policy could see Wellington focus more on ties with Asia.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document