France’s energy policy to weaken its climate ambitions

Significance Several French industries have proclaimed low-carbon ambitions but outcomes have been modest: ‘green’ finance is still embryonic and there has been little progress on key decisions such as halting subsidies to fossil fuels. Moreover, France’s energy and climate transition is set to slow, undermining its efforts on the global scene. Impacts Pressure on countries such as Germany to phase out coal will rise. Private-sector and sub-national climate engagement in the United States may increase. The issue of the extent to which developed and developing countries should be treated differently may cause conflict in the run-up to COP24.

Significance The outcome comes as little surprise, given the repressive tactics used by the Ortega administration in the run-up to the vote, which included the disqualification or imprisonment of numerous opposition candidates. The United States and other international actors are now poised to put increased pressure on the re-elected government. Impacts The prospect of extended sanctions will act as a further disincentive to foreign investment. Ortega’s efforts to boost regional support through increased alignment with Honduras may lead to greater bilateral trade. More undocumented Nicaraguan migration looks inevitable, whether due to continuing political repression or worsening economic hardship.


Significance The United States has already committed, in an unprecedented deal with China in November 2014, to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (an improvement on its previous 17% goal). China in return pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. This agreement is a game-changer for combating global climate change, since the two countries are the world's largest sources of carbon emissions, together accounting for 40% of the total, and were not covered under the now-expired Kyoto Protocol. Impacts Washington is poised to reclaim its place, lost after Kyoto, as a leader in global efforts against climate change. US-China climate cooperation initiatives could serve as templates for other developing countries. There are new opportunities for trilateral cooperation involving the EU. Fears that the bilateral agreement makes the UNFCCC obsolete are unwarranted, but it could preclude more ambitious efforts.


Significance Trump announced on September 5 that his administration would phase out over the next six months the DACA programme, which protects undocumented migrants brought to the United States as children (known colloquially as ‘Dreamers’) from deportation and allows them to apply for renewable residency permits. While praised by immigration hardliners within the Republican caucus, many of the president’s party criticised the decision to add to the packed legislative calendar through the end of the year and heighten uncertainty for the estimated 790,000 DACA enrolees. Impacts Opposition from the agricultural lobby and large corporations will stifle Senator Tom Cotton’s plan to halve legal immigration. Trump’s deal with the Democrats on spending and borrowing through December will increase the minority’s leverage in DACA talks. Tackling DACA’s replacement and averting a December shutdown will sap congressional efforts to pass tax reform. Lawsuits from pro-DACA states and municipalities may slow DACA’s termination, but are unlikely to preserve it outright.


Subject Prospects for fossil fuels to end-2019. Significance Slowing global trade suggests oil demand forecasts will be downgraded, while non-OPEC production growth, led by the United States, will keep the market well supplied, despite disruptions and restrictions on major OPEC producers. However, weak pricing will be offset by risk premiums associated with conflict in Libya and the threat of US-Iranian conflagration affecting oil from the Gulf.


Subject China's space warfare capabilities. Significance China on December 17 launched a satellite that will test a new method for detecting dark matter -- the first of a series of five missions that put China at the cutting edge of space science. Separately, Beijing and Washington last month set up a 'space hotline' to reduce the risk of conflict in space -- an agreement representing acknowledgement of China's space capabilities and the challenge they pose to US strategic and tactical superiority. Impacts China still lags the United States significantly, but is eroding US dominance. Space capabilities will be integral to the success of China's 'anti-access/area denial' strategy. Earth observation and navigation satellites will support civilian enforcement of China's maritime claims. China will seek space collaboration with other developing countries.


Subject State and municipal pensions in the United States. Significance Losses from the 2008-09 financial crisis, mismanagement and insufficient annual allocations have led to a severe fiscal shortfall for a group of municipalities and states. However, changes to pension schemes are politically difficult for policymakers to achieve, given the clout of public sector unions. Impacts Firms may relocate or forgo investment to avoid future pension-driven tax increases. Republicans will play to their non-urban base by attacking the benefits of public sector employees. Post-COP21 demand for low-carbon investments is likely to complicate pension managers' search for returns. The US urban-suburban-rural divide poses greater difficulties for the Democratic Party than for Republicans.


Subject Carbon capture and storage technology. Significance Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered critical to achieving the ambitious reductions in greenhouse gas emissions set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. CCS technology would allow power plants and industrial facilities to continue burning fossil fuels without pumping climate change-inducing gases into the atmosphere. However, deployment of CCS has been slow and the prospect of meeting the expectations placed upon it by the Paris climate negotiators is moving further out of scope. The recent cancellation of the Kemper CCS project in the United States is a bad sign for the future of the technology. Impacts Without faster deployment of CCS, many countries will struggle to meet their Paris Agreement emissions reduction pledges. If the rollout of CCS continues to falter, more wind and solar power will be needed to reduce carbon emissions. Absent a viable CCS model, it will be even more difficult to replace aged coal plants in the United States and other developed economies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caio Cesar Moreira Chagas ◽  
Marcio Giannini Pereira ◽  
Luiz Pinguelli Rosa ◽  
Neilton Fidelis da Silva ◽  
Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos Freitas ◽  
...  

Increased use of fossil fuels has contributed to global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, which has led countries to implement policies that favor the gradual replacement of their use with renewable energy sources. Wind expansion in Brazil is a success story, but its adherence to distributed generation is still a big challenge. In this context, the authors of this paper argue that the development of robust and viable distributed power grids will also depend in the future on improving small wind generation as an important alternative to the diversity of decentralized power grids. In this study, the authors present an overview of the small-sized Aeolic (or wind) energy market in Brazil, with the objective to support the debate regarding its expansion. Promoting the small wind market in Brazil is still a big challenge, but lessons can be learned from the United States. In this context, the article uses the United States learning curve, analyzing barriers that were found, as well as public policies implemented to overcome them. The lessons learned in the American market may guide public policies aimed at fostering this technology in Brazil. If technological improvements, certification and introduction of financial incentives were implemented in Brazil, the small wind industry chain could grow substantially, building a trajectory to promote the low carbon economy.


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