Popular votes and Brexit will shape EU-Swiss relations

Subject EU-Swiss bilateral relations. Significance The relationship between Switzerland and the EU is functional but difficult. Despite some progress on the Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) that secures market access for a range of products, a breakthrough is still needed on the most important issue, the institutional framework for sectoral agreements. Negotiations have slowed and the Swiss government faces difficult decisions on the right timing and strategy. Impacts The Swiss government’s decision to resume discussions on new 'cohesion payments' to the EU is likely to create goodwill in Brussels. In the short term, Switzerland's economy and trade are unlikely to suffer from the stalemate in the Swiss-EU political relationship. With Ignazio Cassis as foreign minister, the government is likely to become more sceptical of the EU.

Significance The government's reforms have failed to deliver growth and lower employment as it had hoped. This leaves it poorly placed before December's regional elections and the 2017 presidential poll. Against a background of economic weakness, Europe's migrant crisis is boosting the National Front (FN) and its leader Marine Le Pen. Impacts Sarkozy may beat former Prime Minister Alain Juppe in the main centre-right party primary. Sarkozy may then beat President Francois Hollande in the first presidential round, and Marine Le Pen in the second. Under pressure from the right, the government is unlikely to accept further refugees beyond the proposed EU quota. France's continued economic debility will weaken its voice in the EU, and exacerbate strains with Germany.


Subject Bilateral relations between the United Kingdom and the United States. Significance UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been criticised for her eagerness to form a close relationship with US President Donald Trump, at a time when the new administration in Washington is lurching from crisis to crisis. However, as the United Kingdom heads towards negotiations on leaving the EU, it needs good relations across the Atlantic more than ever. Impacts Trump’s plans to roll back financial regulations will increase pressure for similar moves in the City of London. Good UK links with Republicans in Congress will be just as important as good relations with the White House. Investigations into links between the Trump administration and the Kremlin have the potential to overshadow other bilateral relations. The tone of the relationship will also be affected by the success or failure of Trump’s state visit to the United Kingdom later this year.


Subject Kosovo's temporary political truce. Significance The political crisis has calmed following nine months of steadily escalating unrest, marked by violent street demonstrations and the use of tear-gas in parliament. However, the underlying issues that provoked the unrest -- devolution to Kosovo's various ethnic Serb enclaves and a border treaty that cedes 2,500 hectares of disputed land to Montenegro -- are far from resolved. Accordingly, there is a high risk of a return to unrest in the near future. Impacts Failure to agree a common border with Montenegro will complicate bilateral relations at a time of growing regional instability. Unilateral devolution of power to Serb-majority municipalities risks creating a disputed breach in Kosovo's territorial integrity. Under EU pressure, the government will try to resolve the two key political issues, but with only limited success. Resumed violence will have damaging consequences for the economy, implementing the Brussels Agreement and Kosovo's passage towards the EU.


Subject Political situation in Switzerland. Significance The results of the 2015 Swiss federal election indicated a shift to the right and increased political polarisation. Yet the new centre-right majority is not able to adopt policies without making concessions to the left. Impacts Switzerland will probably remain an attractive location even if foreign companies lose their taxation privileges vis-a-vis domestic firms. Adopting the institutional agreement with the EU would pave the way for new market access agreements. In addition to trade agreements through EFTA, Switzerland seeks to develop its bilateral trade ties with other countries.


Significance The February 29 parliamentary elections resulted in the defeat of ruling left-nationalist Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD), which has led Slovakia’s government for 12 (3 4-year terms) of the 16 years that Slovakia has been a member of the EU. The incoming four-party centre-right government of Igor Matovic, while generally conservative on social issues, will be reformist and pro-EU on economic and foreign policy. Impacts While populist, the new Slovak government will diverge from its Central European neighbours in not promoting ‘illiberalism’. There should be continuity in Slovakia’s foreign policy, with a professional diplomat as foreign minister. The government supports EU membership, despite some parties demonstrating soft Euroscepticism.


Significance Moody's may cut Poland's credit rating because of the government's controversial changes to the constitutional court, the agency has warned. The European Commission continues to put pressure on the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party to repeal legislation that changes the court's composition and working practices, triggering protests and prompting accusations of anti-democratic behaviour. However, Poland's financial markets have been rallying, even as the stand-off has intensified. Signs that the government favours a less aggressive restructuring of Swiss franc mortgage loans are also buoying sentiment. Impacts Sentiment towards EMs will still be fragile, thanks to significant uncertainties. Uncertainties centre on the oil price outlook, US monetary policy and, crucially, central banks' ability to stabilise markets. Concerns about a UK exit from the EU could begin to weigh on CE currencies if markets anticipate higher risk of an 'out' vote on June 23.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gagah Yaumiyya Riyoprakoso ◽  
AM Hasan Ali ◽  
Fitriyani Zein

This study is based on the legal responsibility of the assessment of public appraisal reports they make in land procurement activities for development in the public interest. Public assessment is obliged to always be accountable for their assessment. The type of research found in this thesis is a type of normative legal research with the right-hand of the statue approach and case approach. Normative legal research is a study that provides systematic explanation of rules governing a certain legal category, analyzing the relationship between regulations explaining areas of difficulty and possibly predicting future development. . After conducting research, researchers found that one of the causes that made the dispute was a lack of communication conducted between the Government and the landlord. In deliberation which should be the place where the parties find the meeting point between the parties on the magnitude of the damages that will be given, in the field is often used only for the delivery of the assessment of the compensation that has been done.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferdinando Ofria ◽  
Massimo Mucciardi

PurposeThe purpose is to analyze the spatially varying impacts of corruption and public debt as % of GDP (proxies of government failures) on non-performing loans (NPLs) in European countries; comparing two periods: one prior to the crisis of 2007 and another one after that. The authors first modeled the NPLs with an ordinary lest square (OLS) regression and found clear evidence of spatial instability in the distribution of the residuals. As a second step, the authors utilized the geographically weighted regression (GWR) to explore regional variations in the relationship between NPLs and the proxies of “Government failures”.Design/methodology/approachThe authors first modeled the NPL with an OLS regression and found clear evidence of spatial instability in the distribution of the residuals. As a second step, the author utilized the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) (Fotheringham et al., 2002) to explore regional variations in the relationship between NPLs and proxies of “Government failures” (corruption and public debt as % of GDP).FindingsThe results confirm that corruption and public debt as % of GDP, after the crisis of 2007, have affected significantly on NPLs of the EU countries and the following countries neighboring the EU: Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, Montenegro, and Turkey.Originality/valueIn a spatial prospective, unprecedented in the literature, this research focused on the impact of corruption and public debt as % of GDP on NPLs in European countries. The positive correlation, as expected, between public debt and NPLs highlights that fiscal problems in Eurozone countries have led to an important rise of problem loans. The impact of institutional corruption on NPLs reports that the higher the corruption, the higher is the level of NPLs.


Significance This is still tentative planning but it indicates the Kremlin is being spurred into action by looming curbs on high-carbon products in China and the EU, Russia's key export markets. Russia has so far resisted calls for more ambitious commitments. Impacts Siberian forest fires will focus public attention on the environment, if not global warming. Blame for the wildfires, as with other environmental problems, will be weaponised in elite infighting. The government is interested in developing cheap, green hydrogen. A pilot carbon emissions trading scheme in Sakhalin could be scaled up to other parts of Russia.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-Fang Chou ◽  
Chih-Hsing Sam Liu ◽  
Jun-You Lin

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to illustrate the different systems controlling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and curbing the impact of the virus on the hospitality economy. The author’s clarified the critical attributes of the government, organization management system and consumer behaviour using mediation-moderation models and demonstrated how those critical attributes influenced customer consumption intention during COVID-19 in Taiwan.Design/methodology/approachDue to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, this research is mainly distributed through online questionnaires through Facebook and other social media channels to recruit volunteers. Second, the pre-test survey used 100 questionnaires collected from juniors and seniors from a university in northern Taiwan to make predictions. Third, this study also conducted a questionnaire validity analysis, which identified 9 criteria and 34 items. Fourth, the questionnaire collected samples for a total of three months. Structural equation modelling was used to test the hypotheses in a sample of 1,098 consumers in Taiwan.FindingsThis study considers government, enterprise and consumer levels and conducts relevant factor analysis from consumers’ perspectives to understand the changes in consumer behaviour under COVID-19 influence. Regarding mediation, this study finds that information and communication mediate the relationships between crisis management and COVID-19 impact. Regarding moderation, this study exposes the critical moderating part of human resources, that hygiene and safety strengthen the relationships between COVID-19 impact and attitude towards life and that perceived anxiety strengthens the relationship between attitude towards life and consumption intention.Practical implicationsDuring COVID-19, restaurants should cooperate with the government to reduce the risk of community infection. Therefore, the government also needs to cooperate with restaurant companies to enhance the industrial economy, actively communicate with consumers and provide correct and sufficient information. At the same time, restaurant enterprises also need to have sufficient human resource arrangements, hygiene and safety planning to eliminate consumers’ doubts.Originality/valueThese findings indicate that consumers’ consumption intention to eat out is affected by the COVID-19 impact and attitude towards life. This research also confirms that perceived anxiety has a mediating effect on the relationship between consumer attitudes towards life and consumption intentions. To improve the restaurant economic process, they should consider solutions to reduce consumers’ perception of the COVID-19 impact and fear of eating out.


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