Popular votes will decide Swiss next steps

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Domestic Firms ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Subject Political situation in Switzerland. Significance The results of the 2015 Swiss federal election indicated a shift to the right and increased political polarisation. Yet the new centre-right majority is not able to adopt policies without making concessions to the left. Impacts Switzerland will probably remain an attractive location even if foreign companies lose their taxation privileges vis-a-vis domestic firms. Adopting the institutional agreement with the EU would pave the way for new market access agreements. In addition to trade agreements through EFTA, Switzerland seeks to develop its bilateral trade ties with other countries.

Popular votes and Brexit will shape EU-Swiss relations

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Access ◽  
Mutual Recognition ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Mutual Recognition Agreement ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-Swiss bilateral relations. Significance The relationship between Switzerland and the EU is functional but difficult. Despite some progress on the Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) that secures market access for a range of products, a breakthrough is still needed on the most important issue, the institutional framework for sectoral agreements. Negotiations have slowed and the Swiss government faces difficult decisions on the right timing and strategy. Impacts The Swiss government’s decision to resume discussions on new 'cohesion payments' to the EU is likely to create goodwill in Brussels. In the short term, Switzerland's economy and trade are unlikely to suffer from the stalemate in the Swiss-EU political relationship. With Ignazio Cassis as foreign minister, the government is likely to become more sceptical of the EU.

Complicated UK-WTO negotiations may hit growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Poor Understanding ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Eu

Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.

EU-led reform will be loser in Bulgarian elections

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Judicial Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Development ◽  
The Right ◽  
Nationalist Parties ◽  
The Eu

Significance The change of president and government in late January has shifted the power balance in favour of the Socialist Party (BSP), but the centre-right Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) is still the stronger political force. The three most influential parties -- GERB, BSP and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) -- are all focused on preserving the political and economic status quo, and on opposing radical judicial reform as demanded by the EU. Pro-reform forces to the right of GERB are in disarray, while the nationalist parties are united and on the rise. Impacts GERB has yet to find itself a role that could win it another victory over the BSP, as in 2014. As the weaker party, the BSP will be more aggressive in exploiting anti EU sentiment. Long-anticipated judicial reform will remain elusive. The degree of Bulgaria's distance from Brussels will be influenced primarily by events and elections in Western Europe.

EU may not develop a joint stance on Chinese FDI soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
The West ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
The Eu

Subject Chinese FDI into Europe. Significance China's hosting of the G20 summit on September 4-5 came as it is recalibrating its foreign economic strategy, becoming a major investor in the West and particularly the EU. With a few notable exceptions, EU governments have been keen to encourage those investments. Impacts While China will continue to relax restrictions on investments into its domestic economy, it is unlikely to reciprocate fully to the EU. Sectors China considers strategic, including defence equipment and infrastructure, will remain out of bounds to foreign companies. Concerns about the geostrategic risk of Chinese investments appear to resonate more strongly in Australia and the United States than the EU.

Agencies will become more important in EU governance

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Development ◽  
Regulatory Networks ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Regulatory Agencies ◽  
European Medicines Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Eu Governance ◽  
European Banking ◽  
The Eu

Subject Agencies in the EU. Significance Preparations for Brexit last year prompted the decision to relocate two EU agencies that had been based in London -- the European Banking Authority (EBA), which will move to Paris, and the European Medicines Agency (EMA), which will move to Amsterdam. This shined a spotlight on an aspect of EU governance that rarely attracts much attention outside specialist circles: the EU’s decentralised regulatory agencies. Impacts Delegating regulatory tasks allows the Commission to focus its limited resources more on policy development and enforcement. EU agencies tend to enhance transparency as they incorporate and replace existing, often opaque, regulatory networks and expert committees. The location of agencies can influence foreign companies’ decisions of where to base their EU headquarters.

Croatia's political weaknesses will slow growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Model ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Economic Convergence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance Inflation seems to have returned to the economy following three years of near-continual deflation. After years in the doldrums, the Croatian economy is finally experiencing respectable growth and various indicators are now pointing in the right direction. However, the recovery is based on short-term factors that cannot easily be sustained, and the foundations of the economy remain weak. Impacts The current spate of growth is helping to prop up a weak government and a socio-economic model to which many Croats are averse. Respectable growth has lifted business confidence in the third quarter to its highest level since 2009. Apparent economic convergence with the rest of the EU is reviving the question whether and when Croatia should adopt the euro.

Alternative may emerge to full Turkish accession to EU

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Ministers ◽  
The Eu

Significance Erdogan has not softened his line towards the EU, but there has been some vacillation in the EU's approach. While EU signals on Turkey have been becoming sharper, at the informal April 28-29 foreign ministers' meeting in Malta attended by ministers from the candidate countries, the Union stepped back from a confrontation with Turkey. Impacts The lira could weaken again despite its recovery in early 2017. The business climate will be very subdued, with medium-term investment becoming more unstable. Turkey will seek trade agreements with Asian countries such as India to try to reduce the EU's role in its economy. Middle Eastern investment will continue to be welcome in Turkey, while conditions for EU investors could worsen.

Brexit will be damaging for UK-EU services trade

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Significance Even if it succeeds, this will have a greater disruptive impact on the trade in services than goods, because the EU’s single market enables greater cross-border services trade than is typical of other free trade agreements (FTAs). This is likely to cut the volume of EU-UK services trade, in which the United Kingdom currently enjoys a substantial surplus. Impacts The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will diminish its appeal for multinationals over the next few years, at least. The new UK immigration system could result in staff shortages in low-skilled services sectors. The imperative of tackling COVID-19 will likely delay the conclusion of new trade deals with non-EU countries.

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