US shipping law is unlikely to ease despite hurricanes

Significance US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had earlier denied a request from Puerto Rico to waive certain provisions of the Jones Act which would allow vessels of any registry to ship cargo from the US mainland to Puerto Rico. However, CBP eventually granted the waiver under significant political and popular pressure due to the devastation of Hurricane Maria and slow pace of disaster response. Impacts Infrastructure repair will have a greater impact on Puerto Rico’s recovery than the duration of the Jones Act waiver. Labour maritime unions will lobby senior Democrats to block any retrenchment of mariner protections. Washington’s ‘America First’ line on trade will see it side with US shipbuilders against increasing foreign-built vessels for cabotage.

Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.


Significance With Republicans retaining their House and Senate majorities too, Trump is in a position to take unilateral action via his powers as chief executive, battle with Republican leaders and the Democratic minority to set the legislative agenda, challenge his political adversaries for leadership of the party, and define Washington's global role for the next four years as commander-in-chief. However, investors, foreign capitals, corporates and the US public uncertainly await further clarification of the unorthodox candidate's policy programme after discounting his electoral viability and campaign promises. Impacts Senate Democrats under probable Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are likely to adopt a confrontational stance against the White House. Election-related market volatility may slow the pace of US interest rate rises next year. Further US disengagement from the Syrian civil war is likely, to the benefit of President Bashar al-Assad. Puerto Rico Governor-elect Ricky Rossello is unlikely to find allies in Washington for his pro-statehood agenda.


Significance Fiscal pressures are causing controversy in Puerto Rico, but so too is fiscal policy-making. On July 5, Governor Ricardo Rossello announced that he would seek a court injunction that would prevent the budget he has signed from being disallowed in favour of the nearly 9-billion-dollar budget devised by the US-based federal fiscal control board. Impacts Domestic and foreign investor confidence in Puerto Rico is likely to fall further, complicating economic recovery and reform. The episode will further damage Puerto Rican politicians’ credibility when they make representations to Washington. The polarisation over Puerto Rico’s long-term future, and the US statehood question, will deepen. Delays in repairing the island’s economy, and then reforming it for the future, could see worker outflows.


Significance The missed payment marks the island’s second default of 2017 after missing payments in January. The federal fiscal control board imposed by the US Congress has given the indebted Puerto Rican government until February 28 to formulate new budget proposals for the next two years and a ten-year fiscal plan. The control board also extended a temporary stay on creditor litigation to May 1. Impacts A public health or migration crisis involving Puerto Rico’s US citizens would present the White House with political difficulties. Holders of bonds from the highly indebted US Virgin Islands will watch congressional action on Puerto Rico closely. Cuts to employee benefits and tuition increases at the University of Puerto Rico are likely to spark protests.


Significance Under the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) passed by the US Congress earlier this year, the oversight board can set the island’s fiscal policy independent of the insular government should no agreement be reached. Garcia Padilla will depart office in January and a governor from the pro-statehood New Progressive Party of Puerto Rico (PNP), Ricardo Rossello, will inherit the management of complex federal-commonwealth arrangements and the island’s economic and social crisis, as Puerto Rico restructures over 70 billion dollars in debt. Impacts Republican plans to repeal the Affordable Care Act (‘Obamacare’) would worsen Puerto Rico’s public health crisis. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate lift-off will punish US sub-national borrowers that have thus far avoided difficult spending cuts. Across-the-board US tax cuts, absent special measures, would see potential investors look to the mainland, rather than Puerto Rico.


Significance Over 6,000 state-level officials were elected on November 6. The results matter for state-level policy and the federal-level political conversation it influences, and for the political arithmetic of future elections. Impacts California especially will attempt to create a parallel policy track to that occurring in Washington. The Florida and Arizona Senate races face recounts; these would not change control of the US Congress in 2019. By 2020, pressure is likely to have grown for Puerto Rico and Washington DC to gain greater representation.


Author(s):  
Aruna Apte ◽  
Keenan Yoho

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a model for selecting specific assets to be used in relief and disaster response missions based on the capabilities of, and contributions to, the demanded need for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. During past disasters, the US Navy (USN) has responded with whatever ships were in the area regardless of their contribution to the need. The authors use data from the USN that has been gathered in other studies as an illustration of how the model may be applied to allocate the most useful vessels at the lowest cost. Design/methodology/approach A simple optimization model is used that utilizes scored capabilities as well as the estimated costs associated with US Naval vessels that will allocate the most useful assets at the lowest economic cost. Findings The model selects the most effective assets while minimizing the estimated economic cost. The US Naval assets that contribute the most effective humanitarian assistance and disaster response capability at the lowest cost are amphibious ships, leased commercial vessels and ready reserve force cargo ships. Originality/value This research fills a critical gap in the literature as there is no research that takes into account national Navy capability and proposes a solution to find those assets that are most mission and cost effective. As the USN looks for ways to cut costs while meeting mission priorities it will be necessary to determine which ship classes and types contribute the most while saving cost. The model introduced in this research provides insight into where investments should be made to meet strategic goals.


Subject Post-default politics in Puerto Rico. Significance While the US federal election will attract most national media attention over the coming months, Puerto Rico's governor, resident commissioner (non-voting representative to the US Congress), bicameral Legislative Assembly and local mayors will also be elected on November 8. Since Puerto Rico defaulted on its public debt in July, the next cohort of public officials will be charged with tackling an exceptionally complex knot of severe policy problems involving the island's finances, public services, pensions and constitutional status. Impacts The legislated requirement to use US-flagged vessels for intra-US shipping under the Jones Act will keep Puerto Rico's import costs high. Partisan rancour at the federal level is likely to complicate nominations for fiscal oversight board appointments. The response to Zika will place significant strain on Puerto Rico's already-weakened public health sector.


Subject Politics and economics update for Puerto Rico. Significance The US Army Corps of Engineers expects to be conducting post-Hurricane Maria repair operations down to around April. Impacts Outmigration of working-age Puerto Ricans will constrain economic diversification. Puerto Rico faces competitive constraints with neighbouring islands, given US minimum wage legislation. Post-hurricane Puerto Rican police capacity shortages could see crime rise.


Significance Trump’s commitment to building a US-Mexico border wall means he may try to redirect additional funds from elsewhere for the purpose. Some of these could come from Puerto Rican disaster relief money. If this occurs, or if Trump rejects the bipartisan deal, it will add to Puerto Rico’s long-term fiscal pressures and aid needs, amid wider questions about the island’s constitutional status and development. Impacts Outward migration is likely to rise, especially as the US economy grows, constraining Puerto Rico’s economic diversification. The Democratic US House majority will raise Hispanic-American and Puerto-Rican American issues’ profile. New legislation for Puerto Rican US statehood may be introduced, but passage is unlikely. Puerto Rico will sue the Trump administration if it redirects money bound for Puerto Rico for wall-building.


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