Israeli diplomacy will fail to quash Iran-Syria threat

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Southern Zone ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Post War

Significance Israel sees rising risks from developments in Syria, especially the implementation of four ‘de-escalation zones’ agreed on May 6 by Russia, Iran and Turkey after talks in Astana. Netanyahu is concerned that these -- especially the southern zone, implemented in cooperation with the United States and Jordan -- will entrench an Iranian military presence in post-war Syria, including in areas close to the Israeli border. Impacts Rising Iranian spending on its ballistic missile programme will exacerbate Israeli concerns. The eighth round of UN-mandated Syrian peace talks in Geneva this month will assume implementation of the de-escalation zones. Shared concerns over Iran will boost Israel’s ties with some Sunni Arab governments, especially Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s enhanced coordination with Iran will not undermine growing economic and energy ties with Israel.

Iran is set to become a formidable cyber actor

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyber Warfare ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Sector

Subject Iran's cyber capabilities. Significance Tehran has invested in its technology sector in recent years to become one of the world’s most cyber-capable nations. Though perhaps not on the same level as China and Russia, it is not far behind. Iranian hackers have carried out successful attacks in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States. Impacts Saudi Arabia is Iran’s primary target for cyber operations, followed by Saudi supporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran will augment its own cyber warfare capabilities through proxies such as the 'Syrian Electronic Army'. US reversals over the nuclear deal may lead Iran to unleash a new wave of cyberattacks against US interests.

Hypersonic arms alter US-Russian threat perceptions

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Threat Perceptions ◽  
Ballistic Missiles ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles ◽  
Global Reach

Subject Hypersonic missiles and their implications. Significance Russia and China claim to have hypersonic weapons with near-global reach, capable of delivering nuclear warheads with certainty and overcoming US anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defences designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The implication is that both countries are ahead of the United States in the technology race. Impacts Hypersonic technology poses a new challenge just as the future of the New START arms treaty is due for renewal in 2021. While the Kremlin highlights future hypersonic weapons, broader procurement of new defence systems is lagging. US and Chinese designers are investigating potentially cheaper methods of accelerating artillery shells to hypersonic velocities.

Pakistan will bide its time over Kashmir crisis

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Kashmir Valley ◽  
Jammu And Kashmir ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorist Financing

Subject Pakistan's response to India's recent Kashmir move. Significance Pakistan last week carried out a training launch of a surface-to-surface ballistic missile. The test raises questions about the (politically powerful) military’s intentions towards neighbour and enemy India, which early last month irked Islamabad by revoking Jammu and Kashmir state’s special constitutional status. Meanwhile, Pakistan is trying to support peace talks between the United States and the Taliban and aiming, by October, to extricate itself from an international watchlist of jurisdictions with weak measures against terrorist financing. Impacts China will maintain support for ally Pakistan but discourage an escalation of military tensions in South Asia. The United States will urge Pakistan and India to back a settlement in Afghanistan. India will continue to maintain restrictions on communications and movement in the Kashmir Valley.

Russian build-up raises geopolitical stakes in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Russian Military

Significance US officials estimate that Russia has dispatched tanks and artillery to Syria in recent weeks in a reported military build-up, raising concerns that Moscow is embarking upon an extensive mission to bolster President Bashar al-Assad's embattled regime and establish a substantial Russian military presence in the Middle East. The build-up comes amid an intensive Russian diplomatic drive in Syria. Impacts Recent attempts to revive the UN-backed Geneva peace process will stumble due to the lack of US-Russian and Saudi-Iranian unanimity. Russia will use its influence over Assad as a bargaining chip in its stand-off with the United States and Europe. Hezbollah and Tehran will be emboldened by Moscow's solid backing of the Assad regime. However, this may also complicate Russia's ties with the Gulf states, Turkey and Israel.

Elections will sharpen US focus on Libya

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Relative Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Actors

Subject The Trump administration's policy on the Libya conflict. Significance In recent weeks, the United States has pursued a more active foreign policy towards Libya. This is a departure from its position of the past eight years of ‘leading from the back’ on Libya and comes as US President Donald Trump faces an impeachment investigation and elections in November 2020. With the vote approaching, Trump's opponents have increasingly criticised his position on Moscow, drawing attention to the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya. Impacts Ties with Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the relative influence Russia has with them, will weigh on the administration’s thinking. The State Department may push more actively for a ceasefire when a conference of external actors in Libya takes place in Berlin. A ceasefire could fragment the forces fighting Haftar without robust external guarantees that his forces would not violate it.

Arab gripes pose challenges for Syrian Kurds’ control

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Dynamic ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Underlying Causes

Subject Kurdish-Arab tensions in north-east Syria Significance Significant protests between April and June by Arab tribes in north-eastern Syria against Kurdish governance have subsided in north-eastern Syria after Saudi Arabia intervened to encourage de-escalation. However, the underlying causes, including grievances over economic distribution, heavy-handed security methods and a lack of Arab representation in decision-making, have not been resolved. Impacts A deterioration in cooperation between Arab tribes and the SDF may facilitate the operations of IS sleeper cells. The United States and partners will look for further ways to alleviate the concerns of Arab tribes in the area. Ankara and Damascus, which both have designs on the north-east, will play up protests to justify intervention. A mooted Turkish invasion of the border area could radically shift the power dynamic in the region.

Economic goals drive Indian-Israeli-Emirati-US ‘quad’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type

Significance The grouping has been widely described as a new ‘quad’. This label is inspired by the Quad, a long-standing group comprising India, the United States, Australia and Japan. Impacts The United States will increasingly encourage Saudi Arabia to pursue normalisation of relations with Israel. China, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey will step up economic and defence collaboration with each other. Delhi-Ankara relations will become more strained.

Cairo aims for greater regional clout

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Procurement

Significance The advent of a new US administration has presented Egypt with an opportunity to reaffirm its regional strategic importance, but also created new risks. Impacts The United States will remain an important factor in Egyptian foreign policy and military procurement, but it is no longer central. An accommodation between Egypt and Turkey may be feasible, and Saudi Arabia could support it, but the UAE might oppose it. Sisi will ignore Western criticisms of Egypt’s human rights record, calculating that the risk of any effective sanctions is low.

Syrian regime poised to defeat rebels in Aleppo

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure

Significance The United States, Russia and other international powers agreed a cessation of hostilities in Munich last week, scheduled to begin on February 18. However, the deal requires confirmation by Syrian rebel factions and the Syrian government. It comes amid substantial regime gains in Aleppo province that lay the ground for the retaking of rebel-held eastern Aleppo city. Impacts Russia and Iran are likely to succeed in their plan to transform the conflict from a civil war to a manageable insurgency. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are unlikely to intervene directly to support the rebels; but the risk of miscalculation and escalation remains. Turkey is likely to relent to international pressure to allow refugees over the border.

Egyptian military build-up aims at officers’ loyalty

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Procurement ◽  
The Military ◽  
Weapons Systems

Significance Egypt has started to take delivery of an array of weapons systems, including advanced fighter aircraft and naval vessels, from Russia and France. These orders supplement equipment from the United States, which has been Egypt’s main source of weapons since the 1978 Camp David Accords. Amid an acute economic crisis, Cairo’s military procurement spree raises questions about regime motives. Impacts The rapidity of the military build-up may mean that the army will be unable to man the advanced weapons systems with qualified operators. Egypt is purchasing much of the military hardware on credit, which could further the decline of the struggling Egyptian economy. Egypt could use its newly acquired hardware to vie for regional power and influence with Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

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