Syrian regime poised to defeat rebels in Aleppo

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure

Significance The United States, Russia and other international powers agreed a cessation of hostilities in Munich last week, scheduled to begin on February 18. However, the deal requires confirmation by Syrian rebel factions and the Syrian government. It comes amid substantial regime gains in Aleppo province that lay the ground for the retaking of rebel-held eastern Aleppo city. Impacts Russia and Iran are likely to succeed in their plan to transform the conflict from a civil war to a manageable insurgency. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are unlikely to intervene directly to support the rebels; but the risk of miscalculation and escalation remains. Turkey is likely to relent to international pressure to allow refugees over the border.

An African Balance Sheet

Worldview ◽  
1980 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 7-10
Author(s):  
Ross K. Baker
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
The United States ◽  
Colonial Rule ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Regional Power

It hardly seems possible that two decades have elapsed since the floodtide of African independence. We have become so accustomed to associating Africa with newness that we are apt to forget that the premier states of independent Africa—Ghana and Sudan—are coming up on their twenty-fifth anniversaries of freedom from colonial rule. The scant score of years has seen some remarkable transformations. Nigeria, whose first decade was blighted by Africa's bloodiest civil war, has emerged not merely as a regional power but a major world actor. Second only to Saudi Arabia as a supplier of oil to the United States, Nigeria is able to exert a degree of influence on this country unequaled among the states of the African continent.

The Battle for Syria

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Phillips
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
External Factors ◽  
International Dimension ◽  
Regional Order ◽  
Regional Factors

This book provides an analysis of the crucial but underexplored roles the United States and other nations have played in shaping Syria's ongoing civil war. Most accounts of Syria's brutal, long-lasting civil war focus on a domestic contest that began in 2011 and only later drew foreign nations into the escalating violence. The book argues instead that the international dimension was never secondary but that Syria's war was, from the very start, profoundly influenced by regional factors, particularly the vacuum created by a perceived decline of U.S. power in the Middle East. This precipitated a new regional order in which six external protagonists — the United States, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar — have violently competed for influence, with Syria a key battleground. Drawing on a plethora of original interviews, the book constructs a new narrative of Syria's war. Without absolving the brutal Bashar al-Assad regime, the book untangles the key external factors which explain the acceleration and endurance of the conflict, including the West's strategy against ISIS. It concludes with some insights on Syria and the region's future.

Iran is set to become a formidable cyber actor

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyber Warfare ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Sector

Subject Iran's cyber capabilities. Significance Tehran has invested in its technology sector in recent years to become one of the world’s most cyber-capable nations. Though perhaps not on the same level as China and Russia, it is not far behind. Iranian hackers have carried out successful attacks in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States. Impacts Saudi Arabia is Iran’s primary target for cyber operations, followed by Saudi supporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran will augment its own cyber warfare capabilities through proxies such as the 'Syrian Electronic Army'. US reversals over the nuclear deal may lead Iran to unleash a new wave of cyberattacks against US interests.

Israeli diplomacy will fail to quash Iran-Syria threat

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Southern Zone ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Post War

Significance Israel sees rising risks from developments in Syria, especially the implementation of four ‘de-escalation zones’ agreed on May 6 by Russia, Iran and Turkey after talks in Astana. Netanyahu is concerned that these -- especially the southern zone, implemented in cooperation with the United States and Jordan -- will entrench an Iranian military presence in post-war Syria, including in areas close to the Israeli border. Impacts Rising Iranian spending on its ballistic missile programme will exacerbate Israeli concerns. The eighth round of UN-mandated Syrian peace talks in Geneva this month will assume implementation of the de-escalation zones. Shared concerns over Iran will boost Israel’s ties with some Sunni Arab governments, especially Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s enhanced coordination with Iran will not undermine growing economic and energy ties with Israel.

US policy in Libya will quietly counteract Egypt, UAE

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports

Subject US policy towards Libya. Significance Since the killing of US Ambassador Chris Stevens in Benghazi in September 2012, the United States has detached itself from Libya, but, as the country moves towards civil war, Washington is considering various forms of re-engagement. More muscular US policy in Libya would increase prospects for stability. Impacts Most foreign businesses will be able to re-enter the country in the next two years if a unity government is agreed. This will be most feasible in isolated 'pockets of stability' around energy facilities, key cities, and potentially demilitarised zones. Oil exports are unlikely to rebound significantly beyond 800,000 barrels per day.

Countering extremism drives Egypt's foreign policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Involvement ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
At Home

Significance In the midst of economic and security problems at home and accelerating instability in the region, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has looked outwards to seek help. Partnerships with the Gulf have aided a reeling Egyptian economy while active relations with Russia have provided military benefits. Yesterday it was announced that Russia will supply Egypt with 46 new Ka-52K Alligator Helicopters for Egypt's two new French Mistral warships. Impacts Any differences with the Gulf on Syria will not be acute enough to damage relations. Besides, Egypt's direct involvement and impact on the Syrian civil war are negligible. However, Egypt will continue taking a more active role in Libya. Relations with the United States will be sustained given the decades-old strategic partnership that is still important to both sides.

Elections will sharpen US focus on Libya

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Relative Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Actors

Subject The Trump administration's policy on the Libya conflict. Significance In recent weeks, the United States has pursued a more active foreign policy towards Libya. This is a departure from its position of the past eight years of ‘leading from the back’ on Libya and comes as US President Donald Trump faces an impeachment investigation and elections in November 2020. With the vote approaching, Trump's opponents have increasingly criticised his position on Moscow, drawing attention to the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya. Impacts Ties with Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the relative influence Russia has with them, will weigh on the administration’s thinking. The State Department may push more actively for a ceasefire when a conference of external actors in Libya takes place in Berlin. A ceasefire could fragment the forces fighting Haftar without robust external guarantees that his forces would not violate it.

Arab gripes pose challenges for Syrian Kurds’ control

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Dynamic ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Underlying Causes

Subject Kurdish-Arab tensions in north-east Syria Significance Significant protests between April and June by Arab tribes in north-eastern Syria against Kurdish governance have subsided in north-eastern Syria after Saudi Arabia intervened to encourage de-escalation. However, the underlying causes, including grievances over economic distribution, heavy-handed security methods and a lack of Arab representation in decision-making, have not been resolved. Impacts A deterioration in cooperation between Arab tribes and the SDF may facilitate the operations of IS sleeper cells. The United States and partners will look for further ways to alleviate the concerns of Arab tribes in the area. Ankara and Damascus, which both have designs on the north-east, will play up protests to justify intervention. A mooted Turkish invasion of the border area could radically shift the power dynamic in the region.

Economic goals drive Indian-Israeli-Emirati-US ‘quad’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type

Significance The grouping has been widely described as a new ‘quad’. This label is inspired by the Quad, a long-standing group comprising India, the United States, Australia and Japan. Impacts The United States will increasingly encourage Saudi Arabia to pursue normalisation of relations with Israel. China, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey will step up economic and defence collaboration with each other. Delhi-Ankara relations will become more strained.

Cairo aims for greater regional clout

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Procurement

Significance The advent of a new US administration has presented Egypt with an opportunity to reaffirm its regional strategic importance, but also created new risks. Impacts The United States will remain an important factor in Egyptian foreign policy and military procurement, but it is no longer central. An accommodation between Egypt and Turkey may be feasible, and Saudi Arabia could support it, but the UAE might oppose it. Sisi will ignore Western criticisms of Egypt’s human rights record, calculating that the risk of any effective sanctions is low.

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