EU leaders’ approaches to Trump will vary

Significance Trump’s election has undermined the stability of the transatlantic partnership that for decades has been a central pillar of foreign policy for leading European countries and for the EU itself. Impacts Trump’s attacks on Germany’s trade surplus helped bring the issue to the fore and Berlin is likely to raise investment after the election. Merkel will seek to counter any claims from other parties that her pledge to raise defence spending implies subservience to Trump. EU leaders may highlight the role non-military spending plays in improving security to counter Trump's demands for higher defence spending.

Significance President-elect Donald Trump plans to expand military spending as part of his "America First" foreign policy but has so far offered few details of how this expansion will be financed. The new budget will have significant commercial implications for private entities involved in US defence procurements and for Washington’s force posture abroad. Impacts Trump may focus on increasing US-based missile defence capabilities instead of regionally focused systems based overseas. Political complications over NATO deployments may ensue if US spending outstrips that of its allies. Expansion of the nuclear arsenal beyond current modernisation plans could spark an arms race with Washington’s rivals.


Subject Chinese 'sharp power' in Europe. Significance Beijing is pursuing its foreign policy agenda in Europe using ‘sharp power’ tools, inserting its voice into the European media sphere and attempting to shape the tone and content of output by Western think tanks and universities. It is also using its economic leverage to undermine EU unity on disputes between China and the major European countries. Impacts Smaller EU economies are most susceptible to Chinese influence; they may exploit fear of China to win concessions in Brussels. Major European media outlets will remain effective watchdogs. Europe did not traditionally share US geopolitical concerns about China’s ‘rise’; Chinese interference in European politics changes that. A less mercurial US administration would find much scope to cooperate with the EU to counter China’s illiberal influence. Exposure of ‘sharp power’ efforts will worsen the suspicion Chinese firms and individuals face on account of presumed government links.


Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferdinando Ofria ◽  
Massimo Mucciardi

PurposeThe purpose is to analyze the spatially varying impacts of corruption and public debt as % of GDP (proxies of government failures) on non-performing loans (NPLs) in European countries; comparing two periods: one prior to the crisis of 2007 and another one after that. The authors first modeled the NPLs with an ordinary lest square (OLS) regression and found clear evidence of spatial instability in the distribution of the residuals. As a second step, the authors utilized the geographically weighted regression (GWR) to explore regional variations in the relationship between NPLs and the proxies of “Government failures”.Design/methodology/approachThe authors first modeled the NPL with an OLS regression and found clear evidence of spatial instability in the distribution of the residuals. As a second step, the author utilized the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) (Fotheringham et al., 2002) to explore regional variations in the relationship between NPLs and proxies of “Government failures” (corruption and public debt as % of GDP).FindingsThe results confirm that corruption and public debt as % of GDP, after the crisis of 2007, have affected significantly on NPLs of the EU countries and the following countries neighboring the EU: Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, Montenegro, and Turkey.Originality/valueIn a spatial prospective, unprecedented in the literature, this research focused on the impact of corruption and public debt as % of GDP on NPLs in European countries. The positive correlation, as expected, between public debt and NPLs highlights that fiscal problems in Eurozone countries have led to an important rise of problem loans. The impact of institutional corruption on NPLs reports that the higher the corruption, the higher is the level of NPLs.


European View ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-114
Author(s):  
Günter Nooke

According to former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, world peace is based on the pillars of security, development and human rights. The defence of human rights is a particular foreign policy strength of both the EU and Germany. Despite advances, human rights are currently under threat from two angles. The first is a tendency to demand so much in the realm of human rights that, in the end, very little is achieved. The second is a growing movement that prioritises the rights of the collective over individual rights. However, it is individual human rights that are paramount and it is possible to extend individual rights without trampling cultural diversity. Given Europe's history of freeing itself from the shackles of dictatorship, its role in the defence of human rights is invaluable.


Subject EU responses to US cyber policy. Significance Since the US Department of Defense (DoD) detailed its new cyber strategy in 2015, several European countries have also announced strategies to build dedicated military offensive cyber capabilities. These moves indicate that cyber operations are becoming normal in modern conflict. This has implications beyond military spending, putting pressure on risk managers in potential target sectors while fuelling demand for offensive skillsets. Impacts As more states gain offensive capabilities, the range of operations will multiply, potentially fuelling more conflicts. The market for offensive cyber technologies will grow. US offensive spending may be seen in Moscow as directed against Russia.


Subject France’s foreign policy. Significance Following several speeches by President Emmanuel Macron on France’s international ambitions and priorities, a new strategic review was published on October 11, updating the 2013 White Book on defence and security. Nonetheless, many questions remain around the implications of Macron’s new foreign policy agenda. Impacts Strategic bilateral relationships will be marked by toughness and pragmatism, as is the case in Macron’s personal relations with Trump. France’s position in the EU -- ambitious but often lonely -- and the Brexit negotiations will be a priority for the government. The 2019-24 military procurement programming law will allocate financial means and indicate which of Macron’s ambitions may be realistic. The modernisation of France's nuclear forces will put additional pressure on the defence budget.


Significance However, member states have the dominant foreign policy role in the EU. After Brexit, that will be France and Germany despite the United Kingdom insisting that it wants to maintain as close a relationship with the EU as possible. Impacts EU reformers will light on foreign policy as an area to drive forwarded integration. However, the EEAS lacks the competencies and institutional horsepower to be a force for integration. The strategic needs of the 27 post-Brexit EU members will be various, thus acting as a drag on integration. Smaller EU member states will see more advantage than larger ones in collectively pursuing foreign policy goals through Brussels. Larger member states will be unwilling to submit their national defence policies to greater EU authority.


Significance Poland is looking to forge closer ties with Washington to establish its leadership in CEE, counterbalance Franco-German dominance of the EU and present a united front against Russia. Other CEE countries are looking elsewhere for allies, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to Hungary demonstrates. Impacts Germany and Austria will move to maintain influence in CEE, probably through partnering with the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Russia will work to avoid any threat to its natural gas monopoly in CEE, with Bulgaria and Hungary its levers of influence. Trump will point to gas and arms exports to Poland as a US foreign policy success, though US hawks will remain sceptical about Russia.


Subject Future EU defence integration. Significance The Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund (EDF) have become key pillars of EU defence policy, but divergence between member states is increasingly making defence integration slow and limited. In addition, opposition towards third-party participation and arms exports, and uncertainty about the future EU-UK security relationship, threaten to diminish the capabilities of future EU defence projects. Impacts London’s exclusion from the EU’s Galileo project suggests Brussels does not want close UK collaboration in future EU initiatives. The EU will likely prioritise steps to enhance European defence industry integration in order to reduce duplication and overspending. National-level defence spending could stall over the coming years as a result of slowing economic growth across the euro-area.


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