UK trade and investment will be vulnerable to Brexit

Subject UK economic prospects against the backdrop of the Brexit negotiations Significance The March purchasing managers' survey showed manufacturing expanded for an eighth month while services also grew steadily. However, productivity growth remained below the 1994-2007 average in the final three months of 2016, and risks to the economic outlook rose on March 29, when the United Kingdom notified the EU of its intention to leave. Last month, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) surveyed UK economic prospects, forecasting economic variables to 2021 without directly assessing the likely impact of Brexit. The gravity model can be used to assess its impact on trade prospects. Impacts If US President Donald Trump follows through on his most extreme trade threats, this would dwarf the Brexit disruption. Difficult Brexit negotiations and slower UK GDP growth could fuel support for the Scottish independence movement. The United Kingdom is ranked relatively low globally for its physical infrastructure, offering large scope for improvement.

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.


Significance Depending on the outcome, the United Kingdom's relation with its largest trading partner may be at risk, together with the City of London's role as a financial hub and the ability of EU citizens to work freely in the United Kingdom. Impacts In the event of Brexit, the pound could fall to 1.3 against the dollar and towards parity against the euro. Despite having sold off already, UK bank stocks could fall further in the case of Brexit. Given Scotland's pro-EU stance, an 'out' vote could reopen the debate about Scottish independence.


Significance The UK government remains divided over how its relations with the EU’s customs union should be arranged after Brexit, while the EU is unimpressed by any of the suggestions put forward by London to date. This issue is central to both the future EU-UK trade relationship and the debate about how to resolve the question of the intra-Irish border. Impacts Any physical infrastructure on the Irish border would become a target for violence. A hard border could increase support for Irish reunification among Northern Irish Catholics. Different customs regimes in the EU and the United Kingdom could lead to smuggling.


Significance The move follows the annual conference of her ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) in Glasgow this month -- its last before Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom leave the EU on March 29. Sturgeon has so far resisted pressure to call another Scottish independence referendum in response to Brexit but kept supporters’ hopes alive stressing in her keynote speech, “a better future is within our grasp”. Impacts Sturgeon’s address to the People’s Vote marchers is a clear signal to EU leaders and could stand her in good stead in future talks. Negative Brexit-related developments over the coming years will strengthen the independence movement. Scotland would be in a strong position to re-enter the EU but not to negotiate a bespoke deal.


2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Eberhard Bort

The decisive No vote in the Scottish independence referendum on 18 September 2014 was not a vote for the constitutional status quo, although it confirmed that Scotland would remain part of the United Kingdom. The referendum outcome is likely to have far-reaching consequences for the power relations between London and Edinburgh and, perhaps more than expected, for the constitutional future of the entire UK. A tight timetable for the delivery of extra powers for the Scottish Parliament is in place, and the ‘elephant in the room’, the constitutional status and governance of England, is now firmly on the agenda. There is also pressure for decentralisation in Scotland itself. And the huge ‘democratic awakening’ which characterised this ‘national conversation’ about Scotland's future, with massive democratic participation and a record turnout, demands that these changes will have to be brought about in a participative way – and not ‘top-down’, as a Westminster or Holyrood ‘stitch-up’.


Significance The differing perspectives of unionists and nationalists on the creation of Northern Ireland as a political entity within the United Kingdom, together with Brexit and tensions over the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), have brought the contentious issue of Irish reunification onto the political agenda in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Impacts Scottish independence would likely increase momentum for a referendum on Irish unity. Successful implementation of the NIP, giving firms access to EU and UK markets, may support arguments for maintaining the status quo. If the UK government abandons the NIP, the adverse trade impact on Northern Irish firms could increase support for unification.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnese Rondoni ◽  
Elena Millan ◽  
Daniele Asioli

PurposePlant-based eggs have recently been developed to provide consumers with a healthier, animal-friendlier and more sustainable alternative to conventional eggs. The purpose of this paper is to investigate intrinsic and extrinsic attribute preferences for three prototypes of plant-based egg, namely the liquid, powder and egg-shaped.Design/methodology/approachNine focus groups in the United Kingdom and nine in Italy were conducted, with a total of 180 participants. A thematic analysis of results was conducted.FindingsIn terms of intrinsic product attributes, consumers' preferences for colour, shape, taste, ingredients, nutrients, method of production and shelf-life for plant-based eggs were revealed. Regarding the extrinsic attributes, preferences for price, packaging, country of origin and product naming emerged. Similarities and differences between consumers from the two countries are also discussed. Differences in preferences also emerged between vegan and non-vegan consumers.Research limitations/implicationsThis study adds to the existing knowledge on consumers' preferences for new plant-based food alternatives and identifies future quantitative approaches based on qualitative findings.Practical implicationsResults from this study can assist plant-based egg manufacturers in improving their products in line with consumers' expectations, which may help reducing risk of product failure.Originality/valueThis study is the first to investigate consumers' preferences, expectations and needs for new food products like plant-based eggs and provides information that can be practically applied by manufacturers, as well as suggestions for future research.


2018 ◽  
Vol 84 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lydia J. Leon ◽  
Ronan Doyle ◽  
Ernest Diez-Benavente ◽  
Taane G. Clark ◽  
Nigel Klein ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT In this study, differences in the placental microbiota from term and preterm deliveries in a large pregnancy cohort in the United Kingdom were studied by using 16S-targeted amplicon sequencing. The impacts of contamination from DNA extraction, PCR reagents, and the delivery itself were also examined. A total of 400 placental samples from 256 singleton pregnancies were analyzed, and differences between spontaneous preterm-, nonspontaneous preterm-, and term-delivered placentas were investigated. DNA from recently delivered placentas was extracted, and screening for bacterial DNA was carried out by using targeted sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene on the Illumina MiSeq platform. Sequenced reads were analyzed for the presence of contaminating operational taxonomic units (OTUs) identified via sequencing of negative extraction and PCR-blank samples. Differential abundances and between-sample (beta) diversity metrics were then compared. A large proportion of the reads sequenced from the extracted placental samples mapped to OTUs that were also found for negative extractions. Striking differences in the compositions of samples were also observed, according to whether the placenta was delivered abdominally or vaginally, providing strong circumstantial evidence for delivery contamination as an important contributor to observed microbial profiles. When OTU- and genus-level abundances were compared between the groups of interest, a number of organisms were enriched in the spontaneous preterm-delivery cohort, including organisms that have been associated previously with adverse pregnancy outcomes, specifically Mycoplasma spp. and Ureaplasma spp. However, analyses of the overall community structure did not reveal convincing evidence for the existence of a reproducible “preterm placental microbiome.” IMPORTANCE Preterm birth is associated with both psychological and physical disabilities and is the leading cause of infant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Infection is known to be an important cause of spontaneous preterm birth, and recent research has implicated variation in the “placental microbiome” in the risk of preterm birth. Consistent with data from previous studies, the abundances of certain clinically relevant species differed between spontaneous preterm- and nonspontaneous preterm- or term-delivered placentas. These results support the view that a proportion of spontaneous preterm births have an intrauterine-infection component. However, an additional observation from this study was that a substantial proportion of sequenced reads were contaminating reads rather than DNA from endogenous, clinically relevant species. This observation warrants caution in the interpretation of sequencing outputs from low-biomass samples such as the placenta.


Significance The United Kingdom eyes a strategic tilt to the Indo-Pacific, with South-east Asia a key focus because of its economic dynamism and the convening power of ASEAN. The aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth will deploy to the Indo-Pacific for six months later this year. Impacts The United Kingdom’s view of China as a systemic challenger makes a trade pact between the two countries unlikely. UK efforts to conclude a trade deal with India will be frustrated by Delhi’s protectionist approach. London will pursue closer defence cooperation with Tokyo.


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