'Brexit' could hinder long-term UK growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Trading Partner ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The City

Significance Depending on the outcome, the United Kingdom's relation with its largest trading partner may be at risk, together with the City of London's role as a financial hub and the ability of EU citizens to work freely in the United Kingdom. Impacts In the event of Brexit, the pound could fall to 1.3 against the dollar and towards parity against the euro. Despite having sold off already, UK bank stocks could fall further in the case of Brexit. Given Scotland's pro-EU stance, an 'out' vote could reopen the debate about Scottish independence.

China will largely abide by Hong Kong handover terms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Young People ◽  
Political Repression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The City

Significance This case adds to a growing list of incidents, including the abduction of five Hong Kong booksellers by mainland agents in 2015, that feed fears in Hong Kong that Beijing is undermining the autonomy the city was promised when the UK government handed it over to China in 1997. Impacts The United Kingdom is unlikely to escalate disputes over Beijing's adherence to the handover treaty since doing so might backfire. Evidence of China interfering with business in Hong Kong would be far more economically damaging than targeted political repression. Even limited encroachments by Beijing will increase pessimism about the city's long-term future and make young people keener to emigrate.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

UK trade and investment will be vulnerable to Brexit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Intention To Leave ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independence Movement ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Physical Infrastructure ◽  
Large Scope ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject UK economic prospects against the backdrop of the Brexit negotiations Significance The March purchasing managers' survey showed manufacturing expanded for an eighth month while services also grew steadily. However, productivity growth remained below the 1994-2007 average in the final three months of 2016, and risks to the economic outlook rose on March 29, when the United Kingdom notified the EU of its intention to leave. Last month, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) surveyed UK economic prospects, forecasting economic variables to 2021 without directly assessing the likely impact of Brexit. The gravity model can be used to assess its impact on trade prospects. Impacts If US President Donald Trump follows through on his most extreme trade threats, this would dwarf the Brexit disruption. Difficult Brexit negotiations and slower UK GDP growth could fuel support for the Scottish independence movement. The United Kingdom is ranked relatively low globally for its physical infrastructure, offering large scope for improvement.

Idai will add to crises for Mozambique's FRELIMO

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Proceedings ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Central Regions

Significance Idai-related flooding and destruction has damaged crucial regional infrastructure and put more than 350,000 lives at risk. The catastrophe comes amid attempts by the ruling FRELIMO party to stifle rising internal dissent, contain the fallout from a debt scandal and ensure gas investments proceed in the restive northern Cabo Delgado province. Impacts Rising costs for agricultural and mining investments in central and northern Mozambique will dampen broader growth and investment. The rehabilitation of key infrastructure in opposition-dominated central regions will become increasingly politicised. The fallout from Idai will affect preparations for the October general election, raising fears of a potential poll delay. The disaster response may delay the government's debt-related legal proceedings in the United Kingdom against Credit Suisse and Privinvest.

Future integrity of the United Kingdom is at risk

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time

Significance The Brexit process also has coincided with the rise of national over British identities in Scotland and Wales, as well as an increase in younger generations supporting independence. In Northern Ireland, Catholics are likely to outnumber Protestants for the first time when the census is released next year. Impacts The UK government’s hard-line opposition to another Scottish referendum vote could risk increasing support for independence. Resolving tensions over the Northern Ireland protocol will be crucial in making progress on other aspects of UK-EU relations. Concern over the economic impact of Brexit suggests that London will continue to take a lax approach to customs checks on EU imports.

A transitional UK-EU Brexit deal is likely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
Article 50

Significance The nature of Brexit and its medium-term implications will only become clear as the negotiations surrounding Article 50 and any longer-term trade deal get under way. The nature of these talks is thus of profound significance. Impacts Difficult Brexit negotiations and a slowdown of economic growth in the United Kingdom could fuel support for Scottish independence. Support for EU membership in the remaining member states could rise as the long-term consequences of Brexit become apparent. It is highly unlikely that other member states will leave the Union in the foreseeable future.

FDI is unlikely to return to Turkey's mid-2000s peak

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Past ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Political Uncertainties

Subject Turkey’s failure to attract and retain FDI. Significance Turkey has long failed to match its peers in attracting outside investment, which peaked in 2007; there is no sign of any return to that level. More worryingly, in the past two years, a number of high-profile investors have announced plans to leave. Other investors are privately expressing growing concern at seizures of companies and assets belonging to people alleged to be connected to the July 2016 failed coup, and at the strength of government anti-Western rhetoric. Impacts The level of FDI in manufacturing and business operations is likely to remain stagnant. Investors will be wary of committing to a country where they are unsure of their welcome over the long term. Political uncertainties in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and over the direction of US policy will affect Turkey’s main sources of FDI.

Norway's defence focus will shift to the High North

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Strategic Orientation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Defence Policy

Subject Norway's defence policy. Significance The 'Long-Term Plan for the Norwegian Armed Forces for the Years 2017-2020', released on June 17, sets the tone for Oslo's current and future defence policy. It announces a significant spending increase dedicated primarily to procuring key capabilities. It also solidifies Norway's strategic orientation to the High North, a process which has been under way for some time after a decade of expeditionary operations in places such as Afghanistan. Impacts The plan will support increasing cooperation among NATO's northern members, including the United Kingdom, Denmark, Iceland and Canada. A greater focus on the High North may further strain NATO's relations with Russia. Norway's increased defence spending may raise US pressure on other NATO countries to do the same.

Brexit is set to weaken UK financial services industry

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
European Economic Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Financial Centre ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
City Of London ◽  
The City

Subject UK financial industry's 'passporting' and 'equivalence' in post-Brexit EU. Significance Under current EU rules, the United Kingdom will lose its passporting rights -- which allow financial companies authorised in the United Kingdom to sell their products across the European Economic Area (EEA) -- once it leaves the bloc. This would damage the reputation and status of the City of London as Europe’s leading financial centre. Impacts The EU is unlikely to change its tough stance and allow the United Kingdom to retain its passporting rights after its leaves the EEA. Cities in remaining EU member states such as Dublin, Frankfurt or Paris may attract some business from London. However, New York will probably be the biggest winner in the long term. Restrictions on EU migration could further impact the competitiveness and attractiveness of the City of London after Brexit.

New Brexit deal would damage UK-EU trade relations

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Regulatory Flexibility

Subject Economic impact of Brexit. Significance The latest Brexit deal differs significantly from that agreed by former Prime Minister Theresa May. The United Kingdom (except for Northern Ireland) will leave the EU’s customs territory. Moreover, if the UK government refuses to sign up to “level playing field” provisions, any future EU-UK trade deal is likely to be considerably more limited in scope. As a result, the long-term economic impact of Brexit will be greater. Impacts The key issue concerning trade talks is the extent to which London is prepared to accept constraints on its future regulatory flexibility. Substantial regulatory divergence could damage future UK-EU security and defence cooperation. It is possible that the United Kingdom will leave the EU at the end of 2020 without a trade deal in place.

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