Constitution will overshadow Japan election campaign

Subject The outlook for legislation and party politics ahead of the July upper house election. Significance Now in his fourth year as prime minister, Shinzo Abe enjoys strong public support and faces no serious challenger. In an upper house election in July, his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) hopes to capture enough seats to call a referendum on revising the constitution -- Abe's ultimate political aim. Impacts Abe will use Japan's hosting of the G7 summit in May to present himself as a world statesman. A new emphasis on welfare and social inclusion will not come at the expense of the LDP's traditional pro-business policies. TPP ratification is likely before May. With the voting age lowered for the first time to 18, the more socially progressive but less pacificist youth vote becomes more important.

Significance The governing coalition led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) made gains, with the LDP itself now controlling exactly half the seats in the chamber. Parties in favour of revising Japan's Constitution captured the two-thirds supermajority necessary to call a referendum on the question for the first time ever. Impacts An economic stimulus package is likely soon. Parliamentary opposition to relocation of the US Futenma airbase has strengthened -- a setback for Japan-US relations. New foreign policy initiatives are likely in the near future. Cooperation among opposition parties paid off, and may become more common in future.


Subject The results of the 2020 National Assembly election in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in’s liberal Democratic Party won an unprecedented 180 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly in the four-yearly parliamentary election on April 15. Despite COVID-19, voting was smooth and turnout reached 66.2%, a 26-year high. The conservative opposition leader lost his seat and has resigned. A prominent North Korean defector won a constituency seat for the first time. Impacts Unless the next two years are catastrophic, this win augurs well for the Democrats to retain the presidency after Moon’s term ends in 2022. Even if a conservative retakes the presidency in 2022, their first two years will be thwarted by a parliament now overwhelmingly liberal. Moon will be emboldened to resist US demands on paying for US troops, take a hard line towards Tokyo and pursue peace with Pyongyang. In economic policy, the priority will be to minimise the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, exports and living standards.


1982 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-276
Author(s):  
F. Quei Quo

For many reasons the June election was unusual. To begin with, it was the first time in twenty-seven years that a general election was called due to the passage of a ‘vote of non-confidence’ in the House of Commons.Moreover, it was a ‘double election’ as the regular triennial election of the House of Councillors was scheduled for the same time. Most uniquely, it was also the first time in Japan's electoral history that an incumbent Prime Minister died in office while in the course of the campaign. Finally, it was seen as the first serious opportunity for the combined opposition forces to terminate the uninterruped one-party rule of the Liberal Democratic Party (hereafter referred to as the LDP) since 1955. Results of the election and the subsequent choice of Suzuki Zenko as the Prime Minister surprised not only observers but also the ‘insiders’ ofJapanese politics. This paper attempts to: (1) elaborate on the background that led to the election; (2) illustrate and analyze the electoral facts; and (3) examine their implications for Japan's party politics in the 1980s.


Asian Survey ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Arase

Events in 2008 suggest that the Koizumi era is over and the Liberal Democratic Party will lose the lower house election that must be called before its current term expires in September 2009. The Democratic Party of Japan became the favorite to win the election and laid out the new domestic and foreign policy directions in which it will take Japan.


2001 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 231-232
Author(s):  
Kenji Hayao

The Japanese party system has been in flux in recent years. In 1993, two groups defected from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and joined with the opposition to form a broadly based coalition government. A year later, the LDP regained power by creating a coalition government with its ideological opponent, the Japan Socialist Party (JSP). Both events shocked virtually everyone at the time. The LDP had been in power for so long-almost 40 years-that it seemed almost inconceivable that it could lose power. For just as long, the JSP had been the main opposition. By the 2000 election, a dozen parties had come and gone, the JSP's strength dropped to a very small fraction of what it was a decade earlier, and the LDP had to turn to various coalition partners to maintain its control of government. All this is quite puzzling to even close watchers of Japanese politics, because party politics, especially the role of opposition parties, has been a relatively understudied area. For those who want to make sense of how these events came to pass, Ray Christensen's Ending the LDP Hegemony will be very helpful.


Significance Khabarovsk is entering a third week of sustained protests following the arrest of regional governor Sergey Furgal. The Kremlin has not responded to this act of rebellion and has instead produced a hierarchical solution, installing a replacement governor with none of the skills needed in this explosive situation. Impacts The timing means that (barring a rule change) Khabarovsk's gubernatorial election is likely next year, not this. The protests in Khabarovsk and elsewhere may damage electoral support for United Russia in regional and parliamentary elections. A new law allowing voting over several days, initially in regional elections, will permit manipulation to keep United Russia's vote up. If the situation deteriorates, the president will shift the blame onto the Liberal Democratic Party.


2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven R. Reed

In the 1993 general election the Liberal Democratic Party lost power for the first time since it was founded in 1955. The coalition government that followed enacted the most far-reaching political reforms Japan has experienced since the American Occupation. The country has now experienced two elections since these reforms so we can begin to analyze trends and dynamics. It is now possible to make a preliminary evaluation of the effects of these reforms. I evaluate the reforms under three headings: (1) reducing the cost of elections and levels of corruption; (2) replacing candidate-centered with party-centered campaigns; and (3) moving toward a two-party system which would produce alternation in power between the parties of the government and the parties of the opposition. In conclude that, with some notable exceptions, the reforms are working well, about as well as should have been expected.


Subject Kremlin strategy for the 2018 presidential election. Significance With one year to go before the 2018 presidential election, the Kremlin strategy that will frame the process is starting to take shape. The nature of Vladimir Putin’s campaign has a bearing on his fourth term, during which he must either identify a successor or engineer an extension of his tenure beyond 2024. Impacts Putin will rally populist sentiment on the back of foreign policy successes in Crimea and Syria. A possible rapprochement with the United States would restrict the national narrative of ‘Russia encircled’. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist candidates will criticise the government but will not run opposition campaigns.


Subject The implications of Shinzo Abe's re-election for another term as party leader. Significance Shinzo Abe’s re-election to the post of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president on September 20 makes it likely that he will continue to serve as prime minister until September 2021. In November 2019 he will become the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history. Impacts Promotions to the new cabinet will give indications of who might run for party leader next time round. If Washington imposes tariffs, Japan will probably retaliate. Japan will try to strengthen relations with the other two members of the ‘Quad’ (India and Australia).


Subject A profile of Shigeru Ishiba. Significance Ishiba was runner-up to Abe in the 2012 leadership contest for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and since then has positioned himself to replace Abe as party leader and prime minister should Abe's popularity falter. A poll last month showed that 20.4% of the public wanted Ishiba as prime minister compared with Abe's 19.7%, a dramatic swing since December, when Abe had 34.5% and Ishiba just 10.9%. Impacts Security policy is Ishiba's strength; he has well-developed views and a good sense of what is realistic. Ishiba's critique of Abenomics is lucid, but he has yet to offer a clear alternative. Washington would likely welcome an Ishiba government since he has good connections in the US defence establishment. Ishiba's Christianity may also win him points in Washington.


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