Trump deportation moves threaten Central America

Significance His trip followed the US government’s announcement, on February 21, of plans for a migrant crackdown that could see the number of Mexican and Central American deportees skyrocket. The region already receives a steady flow of deportees. However, if the US deportation rate increases, the countries of origin could experience far greater challenges in terms of pressure on public services, social dislocation and crime. Impacts Increased deportations may be accompanied by reduced US funding to Central America. Central America and Mexico may seek to build on existing cooperation mechanisms to protect migrants. Large-scale migration will continue in the short term as migrants attempt to reach the US border before the wall is built.

Subject Regional migration issues. Significance Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) on October 3 said US President Donald Trump “looks favourably” on his plans to stem northward migration by promoting economic development in Central America. The remarks followed a call between the leaders that Trump described as “great”, with the US president adding that “we will work well together”. Whether such goodwill will last is doubtful, particularly regarding the issue of migration, on which the leaders have thus far taken diametrically opposed stances. Impacts Increased migration from Nicaragua and Venezuela could test stability in Costa Rica and Panama. Global warming will hit Central America hard, with droughts and flooding affecting food security, fuelling migration. Toughened security on the US-Mexico border will make people smuggling highly profitable for crime cartels.


Subject With the dollar strengthening against many local currencies, remittances are on the rise. Significance The strengthening of the dollar has seen remittance figures in Mexico and Central America rise recently. While the weight of remittances varies greatly across Latin America, Mexico is by far the most important recipient in the region. However, the weight of remittance transfers in the Mexican economy only has a significant impact in certain areas, while in several Central American countries, notably El Salvador, they are vital to overall private consumption. Impacts As the US economy gathers strength, remittances should continue to grow, albeit at single-digit rates. While the economic relevance of remittances should decline in Mexico, it will continue increasing in Central America. Governments are faced with the challenge of redirecting the use of remittances from spending to investment.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Khan ◽  
Muhammad Yar Khan ◽  
Abdul Qayyum Khan ◽  
Majid Jamal Khan ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman

Purpose By testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) this study aims to forecast the short-term stock prices of the US Dow and Jones environmental socially responsible index (SRI) and Shariah compliance index (SCI). Design/methodology/approach This study checks the validity of the weak form of EMH for both SCI and SRI prices by using different parametric and non-parametric tests, i.e. augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Philip-Perron test, runs test and variance ratio test. If the EMH is invalid, the research further forecasts short-term stock prices by applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using daily price data from 2010 to 2018. Findings The research confirms that a weak form of EMH is not valid in the US SRI and SCI. The historical data can predict short-term future price movements by using technical ARIMA model. Research limitations/implications This study provides better guidance to risk-averse national and international investors to earn higher returns in the US SRI and SCI. This study can be extended to test the EMH of Islamic equity in the Middle East and North Africa region and other top Islamic indexes in the world. Originality/value This study is a new addition to the existing literature of equity investment and price forecasting by comparing and investigating the market efficiency of two interrelated US SRI and SCI.


2003 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 863-871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emad N. Eskandar ◽  
Alice Flaherty ◽  
G. Rees Cosgrove ◽  
Leslie A. Shinobu ◽  
Fred G. Barker

Object. The surgical treatment of Parkinson disease (PD) has undergone a dramatic shift, from stereotactic ablative procedures toward deep brain stimulaion (DBS). The authors studied this process by investigating practice patterns, mortality and morbidity rates, and hospital charges as reflected in the records of a representative sample of US hospitals between 1996 and 2000. Methods. The authors conducted a retrospective cohort study by using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database; 1761 operations at 71 hospitals were studied. Projected to the US population, there were 1650 inpatient procedures performed for PD per year (pallidotomies, thalamotomies, and DBS), with no significant change in the annual number of procedures during the study period. The in-hospital mortality rate was 0.2%, discharge other than to home was 8.1%, and the rate of neurological complications was 1.8%, with no significant differences between procedures. In multivariate analyses, hospitals with larger annual caseloads had lower mortality rates (p = 0.002) and better outcomes at hospital discharge (p = 0.007). Placement of deep brain stimulators comprised 0% of operations in 1996 and 88% in 2000. Factors predicting placement of these devices in analyses adjusted for year of surgery included younger age, Caucasian race, private insurance, residence in higher-income areas, hospital teaching status, and smaller annual hospital caseload. In multivariate analysis, total hospital charges were 2.2 times higher for DBS (median $36,000 compared with $12,000, p < 0.001), whereas charges were lower at higher-volume hospitals (p < 0.001). Conclusions. Surgical treatment of PD in the US changed significantly between 1996 and 2000. Larger-volume hospitals had superior short-term outcomes and lower charges. Future studies should address long-term functional end points, cost/benefit comparisons, and inequities in access to care.


Subject The US election impact in Latin America. Significance Donald Trump's victory in the US elections was received with concern in Latin America, where most governments informally supported Hillary Clinton's campaign and were expecting continuity in US foreign policy. Trump's positions on migration are particularly worrying for Mexico and Central America. His agenda in other areas is not clear: during the campaign, he made few statements about the region and maintained some contradictory positions on several issues, including relations with Cuba. Impacts Trump's victory will have an impact on domestic policy debates in many countries. Backpedalling on climate change would represent a major regional concern. Already weak support for economic orthodoxy and reduced trade barriers will decline further.


Subject Djibouti port management Significance Djibouti on February 22 unilaterally terminated Dubai Ports World (DP World)’s contract to manage Djibouti’s main economic asset, the Doraleh Container Terminal (DCT), the port that handles almost all of land-locked Ethiopia’s foreign trade. The port’s seizure brings a bitter, six-year legal and commercial dispute between the Emirati-owned DP World and Djibouti’s President Ismael Omar Guelleh to a climactic end, reconfiguring alliances in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. Singapore-based Pacific International Lines (PIL) will now manage the port, as Djibouti eyes a long-term future aligned towards the Far East. Impacts The de facto nationalisation of DCT will not significantly disrupt Ethiopia’s economy or transit trade in the short term. Despite US unease over Chinese maritime ambitions, Western diplomats will be wary of involvement in the Djibouti-UAE dispute. Given Djibouti's strategic location, the US will not downsize its military base absent a wider change in its regional strategic priorities. PIL will aim to boost transhipments via Djibouti, potentially bolstering French and Chinese links within the Ocean Alliance consortium.


Subject Quantitative easing and GDP. Significance The US Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and ECB have all conducted quantitative easing (QE) programmes since 2008, purchasing assets from commercial banks on a large scale and without predefined repurchase agreements. These purchases have swollen the balance sheets of the three largest central banks and provided commercial banks with large liquidity buffers. Impacts The pace of the Fed withdrawing liquidity may slow; if US-China conflict worsens or another shock occurs, the Fed may consider reversing. In the euro-area, there are no new liquidity provisions, at a time when German GDP is weakening and Brexit threatens EU growth. New liquidity-provision plans may be hard for the euro-area to agree; if this is off the table, so are liquidity-withdrawing measures. The BoJ may stop scaling back its bond and ETF holdings if markets suffer; the upcoming sales tax rise will also hit spending.


Subject Oil drilling in Alaska and the energy sector under the new US tax laws. Significance Speaking to reporters on January 16, Senator Lisa Murkowski (Republican, Alaska), said that she wants to seek a new bill that would promote further environmental protections in what is known as the 1002 Area. The 1002 Area is in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and was opened for oil and gas exploration and drilling when President Donald Trump signed into law the Republicans’ tax reform bill on December 22 last year. Impacts Shareholders in refiners could see strong returns as the tax cut windfall is funnelled into higher dividends and share buybacks. If the tax cuts spur stronger short-term economic growth, US oil demand should accelerate, a bullish indicator for oil prices. If the tax cuts increase the US budget deficit, subsidies for the energy sector could be revisited.


Significance He leaves office having failed to achieve his ambition to reform Japan’s constitution, and is widely seen as having mismanaged the most serious public health crisis in decades. Impacts New foreign policy initiatives are unlikely until after the US presidential election. Abe could make a decision before leaving office on whether Japan should acquire pre-emptive strike capabilities. No moves on constitution revision are likely for the next twelve months at least. Japan would be at a disadvantage if a foreign policy crisis were to occur in the next twelve months, and the next few weeks in particular. Whether the Olympics next summer go well will have some influence on whether Suga stays on as leader.


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