Australian far right could see electoral opening soon

Significance As he departed, Bernardi argued that the governing Liberals "bled" votes to the anti-immigration One Nation party owing to neglect of the party's conservative base by centrists leading the government. With the election of four One Nation senators in last year's election and strong polling ahead of key state elections, the precarious centre-right government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may face a renewed electoral threat from the far right. Impacts Australian prime ministers of all stripes will struggle to implement climate-friendly energy policy in the face of conservative pressure. The growth of non-major parties could empower localist opposition to foreign ownership of Australian assets, such as ports and farmland. US President Donald Trump's back-tracking on Australia's refugee resettlement deal could undercut Turnbull's position domestically.

Subject Political outlook for Malaysia's prime minister. Significance This year's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) general assembly, which concluded on December 12, emphasised unity in the face of some party fragmentation. Party leader and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak used the meeting again to reject criticisms surrounding his government over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state investment fund and political contributions. Despite infighting, the party assembly and some recent parliamentary victories imply Najib is consolidating his political position. Impacts Some UMNO critics of Najib may defect, but with a weak opposition coalition, defectors' influence would be limited. New security council legislation will alienate parts of Malaysian civil society. The government will face international pressure not to 'abuse' this legislation.


Subject Borisov’s third administration. Significance The government approved by parliament on May 4 is Prime Minister Boyko Borisov’s third since 2009. It is the first time his Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) party has joined in formal coalition with United Patriots (OB), a bloc comprising three nationalist parties. Two OB leaders, Krasimir Karakachanov and Valery Simeonov, are deputy prime ministers, but only the former combines this position with a portfolio (defence). OB’s third and most controversial leader -- Ataka party leader Volen Siderov, noted previously for rabid anti-NATO and pro-Putin statements -- has no formal government role. Impacts GERB has reaffirmed its domination of Bulgarian politics with minimal concessions to its formal coalition partners. The spectre of increased Russian influence over Bulgarian politics that worried some EU partners has seemingly dissipated. A firmer line against migration is likely as a sop to OB, but meaningful reform of the judiciary will again be strenuously avoided. Sofia’s worries about Turkey and the Western Balkans and its forthcoming EU presidency may make it more amenable to EU influence and advice.


Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juraj Nemec

PurposeMost media evaluate Slovakia as the most successful European country in the fight against the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Such excellent results have been achieved in a really specific period – the change of the government overlapped the initial days of the outbreak of the pandemic in the country. The goal of this viewpoint paper is to investigate how individual public leaders (Prime Ministers) shaped the governance response, how these key political leaders have helped to make the transition to a new government so seamless in times of crisis.Design/methodology/approachQualitative approach is used to map the situation and to show how key political leaders shaped the governance response to the crisis. The official government COVID-19 web page and core national media were investigated to collect the necessary information for our research.FindingsThe most positive finding of this article is the fact that the departing Prime Minister Pellegrini did not decide to wait till the end of office in a passive or moderate way, but managed during last days of office of “his” government to realize a set of really comprehensive measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Slovakia. Politics has been set a bit aside; coalition and opposition parties prioritized the need to fight COVID-19 instead of the need for permanent political fights.Originality/valueThe article introduces the example of the political “takeover” during the crisis, which has been realized in such positive ways, especially thanks to the fact that Pellegrini behaved as a real national leader just a few days before leaving office.


Subject Coalition stability. Significance One month after October's inconclusive parliamentary elections, the largest party in the new parliament, centre-right Citizens for Bulgaria's European Development (GERB), formed a disparate coalition of four political formations that ranged from centre-left (Alternative for Bulgarian Renaissance -- ABV) to far-right (Patriotic Front -- PF). Four months later, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's greatest achievement is that his unlikely government is surviving and the country's political stability is not seriously threatened either on the streets or in parliament. The downside is that much of the government's energy is spent on ensuring its survival, with little time or effort left for expected reforms. Impacts The reform process may be sacrificed to the needs of stability and electoral gain. The government faces no visible opposition, with BSP largely impotent, and DPS tacitly working with Borisov. Further instability in Ukraine could have an impact on Bulgaria's security and supplies of gas.


Subject Departement elections. Significance President Francois Hollande's administration seems poised to be dealt its fourth electoral defeat in less than three years at the department ('departement') elections, the first round of which takes place on March 22. Following the January terror attacks on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a kosher grocery store, the face of 'post-Charlie France' is much less republican than what many commentators expected or even hoped: Marine Le Pen's National Front (FN) is more than ever empowered and might even reach the historical landmark of 30%. Despite this, Hollande will neither replace Prime Minister Manuel Valls nor change economic policy. Rather, he will try to re-build a presidential majority for 2017 by reshuffling the government and letting in Greens and progressive members of his own majority. Impacts The FN will be empowered by a likely historical result, confirming its status of first party nationally and locally. The UMP will win big in the second round on March 29, consolidating Sarkozy's return to the forefront of French politics. Hollande will not change his prime minister but open up his government to prepare for 2017.


Subject Spanish foreign policy. Significance Spain does not see itself replacing the United Kingdom as one of the ‘Big 3’ in driving EU policymaking and cooperation after Brexit. Instead, the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will seek to prioritise Spanish interests in the Mediterranean and on Brexit, and will become less preoccupied with EU cooperation and integration. Spain is seeking a more balanced and broader relationship with the United States, but there is tension over the political crisis in Venezuela and trade issues. Impacts Relations with the United States will become more difficult, especially if President Donald Trump is re-elected. Although Spain would like to shift its regional emphasis towards Asia, Venezuela and the coronavirus could nullify that ambition. Immigration is now a priority, as further illegal inflows would fuel support for the far-right Vox party.


Significance Meloni has benefited from the declining support for Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s League, and more recently the fact that FdI is the only parliamentary party not supporting Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s technocratic government. Impacts Deepening north-south inequality would play into the hands of FdI, which has stronger roots in southern Italy. Despite declining support in the polls, Salvini is unlikely to withdraw support for the government before 2022. With Draghi in power, Italy’s influence on fiscal reforms at the EU level will be stronger.


Significance The MAS’s national-level appeal tends not to translate into support in localised elections, and a poor choice of candidates, particularly in El Alto, has proved self-defeating. Impacts Second-round gubernatorial elections will probably take place in six out of nine departments. Camacho, a far-right businessman turned politician, will use his newly gained legitimacy to harry the government. The Arce government will seek a modus vivendi with opposition mayors such as those of La Paz and Cochabamba.


Race & Class ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suvendrini Perera

In the week before the attacks in the US 'changed the worldforever', a Norwegian container ship, the MV Tampa, rescued almost four hundred asylum seekers from asinking boat off the Indonesian archipelago. The captain sailed towards Australia, but was refused permission to land by a government declaring that this nation would 'not be held hostage by our own decency'. In the face of UN and international disapproval, the Tampa was boarded by armed troops and forcibly moved out of Australian waters. During the following week, capitalising on widespread general hostility towards Afghanistan and Islam in the wake of the September 11 attacks, the Australian parliament rushed through legislation implementing unprecedented measures to keep out asylum seekers. The Australian government's actions chillingly foreshadowed a wider western reaction. In May 2002, Britain's prime minister Blair proposed a series of initiatives strikingly similar to those adopted by Australia, including the use of the Royal Navy to intercept and turn back asylum seekers and the internment of refugees off-shore on large ships leased by the government. The story of the Tampa, then, is part of an unfolding global story.


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