Sarkozy may ride FN strength to win presidency in 2017

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Grocery Store ◽  
French Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Electoral Defeat ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
Charlie Hebdo

Subject Departement elections. Significance President Francois Hollande's administration seems poised to be dealt its fourth electoral defeat in less than three years at the department ('departement') elections, the first round of which takes place on March 22. Following the January terror attacks on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a kosher grocery store, the face of 'post-Charlie France' is much less republican than what many commentators expected or even hoped: Marine Le Pen's National Front (FN) is more than ever empowered and might even reach the historical landmark of 30%. Despite this, Hollande will neither replace Prime Minister Manuel Valls nor change economic policy. Rather, he will try to re-build a presidential majority for 2017 by reshuffling the government and letting in Greens and progressive members of his own majority. Impacts The FN will be empowered by a likely historical result, confirming its status of first party nationally and locally. The UMP will win big in the second round on March 29, consolidating Sarkozy's return to the forefront of French politics. Hollande will not change his prime minister but open up his government to prepare for 2017.

Malaysia's Najib will be stronger in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Political Contributions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
The Face ◽  
State Investment ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Political outlook for Malaysia's prime minister. Significance This year's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) general assembly, which concluded on December 12, emphasised unity in the face of some party fragmentation. Party leader and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak used the meeting again to reject criticisms surrounding his government over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state investment fund and political contributions. Despite infighting, the party assembly and some recent parliamentary victories imply Najib is consolidating his political position. Impacts Some UMNO critics of Najib may defect, but with a weak opposition coalition, defectors' influence would be limited. New security council legislation will alienate parts of Malaysian civil society. The government will face international pressure not to 'abuse' this legislation.

Australian far right could see electoral opening soon

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Ownership ◽  
Refugee Resettlement ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government

Significance As he departed, Bernardi argued that the governing Liberals "bled" votes to the anti-immigration One Nation party owing to neglect of the party's conservative base by centrists leading the government. With the election of four One Nation senators in last year's election and strong polling ahead of key state elections, the precarious centre-right government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may face a renewed electoral threat from the far right. Impacts Australian prime ministers of all stripes will struggle to implement climate-friendly energy policy in the face of conservative pressure. The growth of non-major parties could empower localist opposition to foreign ownership of Australian assets, such as ports and farmland. US President Donald Trump's back-tracking on Australia's refugee resettlement deal could undercut Turnbull's position domestically.

Low growth may undermine Abe's policy promises

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
House Election ◽  
Strategic Goals ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come

Subject The Abe government's economic policies. Significance The passage of unpopular defence legislation overshadowed the Abe government for most of 2015 and caused its popularity to sink to record lows. Now, ahead of an upper house election in July this year, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has sought to return attention to economic policy -- the source of his government's original popularity. His 'three new arrows' of Abenomics indicate a reconsideration of the government's economic policy priorities. Impacts The government will increasingly focus on specific demography-related problems, setting numerical targets to make achievements visible. Raising fertility and preventing depopulation will emerge as the major strategic goals for any Japanese cabinet for decades to come. Immigration on a large enough scale to address demographic pressures has negligible public support and is not seriously considered.

A Line in the Sea

Race & Class ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suvendrini Perera
Keyword(s):  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
September 11 ◽  
Container Ship ◽  
Royal Navy ◽  
Indonesian Archipelago ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face ◽  
September 11 Attacks ◽  
The Government

In the week before the attacks in the US 'changed the worldforever', a Norwegian container ship, the MV Tampa, rescued almost four hundred asylum seekers from asinking boat off the Indonesian archipelago. The captain sailed towards Australia, but was refused permission to land by a government declaring that this nation would 'not be held hostage by our own decency'. In the face of UN and international disapproval, the Tampa was boarded by armed troops and forcibly moved out of Australian waters. During the following week, capitalising on widespread general hostility towards Afghanistan and Islam in the wake of the September 11 attacks, the Australian parliament rushed through legislation implementing unprecedented measures to keep out asylum seekers. The Australian government's actions chillingly foreshadowed a wider western reaction. In May 2002, Britain's prime minister Blair proposed a series of initiatives strikingly similar to those adopted by Australia, including the use of the Royal Navy to intercept and turn back asylum seekers and the internment of refugees off-shore on large ships leased by the government. The story of the Tampa, then, is part of an unfolding global story.

UK freeports agenda may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Central Component ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Government

Significance The government vows that freeports will represent “hubs of enterprise which will allow places to carry out business inside a country’s land border but where different customs rules apply”. The creation of freeports are a central component of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to facilitate global trade and promote regional regeneration in the post-Brexit era. Impacts With Brexit, London will have more flexibility regarding the concessions it can offer businesses operating in freeports. The government vows to create freeports in the devolved regions but faces the difficult task of cooperating with the devolved governments. Some poorer regions will miss out on freeports, which could leave them even more deprived and stoke local resentment against London.

Five-party Czech government must compromise on policy

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Uncertainty

Significance The five-party coalition enters office at a time of intense economic and social uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, rising debt and soaring energy prices. Prime Minister Petr Fiala's greatest challenges involve negotiating between the five coalition partners and restoring respectability to Czech politics. Impacts The new government will be less sceptical about closer EU integration, given the upcoming Czech EU presidency from mid-2022. The government will try to reopen EU Green Deal chapters to renegotiate compensation for highly industrialised member states. Former Prime Minister Andrej Babis may run for president in 2023. Babis will strive to avoid losing parliamentary immunity from prosecution relating to the Stork’s Nest affair and alleged EU subsidy fraud.

Kazakh election raises questions about leadership

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Face ◽  
Territorial Rights

Significance The governing Nur Otan party won most seats and two tame allies were awarded a few. The importance of this election is that it offers pointers to how much power President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev wields. None of his promises of political liberalisation has been realised and it is unclear how serious he is about change. Impacts Askar Mamin's reappointment as prime minister points to general continuity -- or stasis. Tokayev will defend Kazakh nationhood in the face of Russian politicians casting doubt on its territorial rights. Trends as regards civil liberties and freedom of expression are retrograde in both the real and virtual spheres. The OPEC+ bloc's special deal allowing Kazakh oil output to rise by 10,000 barrels per day in February-March offers some economic relief.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Economic demise set to continue, but farming is a hope

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The hryvnia crisis, which has seen the currency's value plummet, has deepened. However, as reported by Reuters, the NBU decision was suddenly reversed following heavy criticism from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who said the move was bad for the economy. Overall, Ukraine's economy continues to be weak and vulnerable to shocks. The local economy had already been struggling for most of 2012-13, owing largely to weak external demand and deteriorating trade relations with Russia. However, the political turmoil that the country found itself in soon after the February 2014 change of power exacerbated these troubles significantly. Impacts Continued economic decline will prompt the government to take new unpopular belt-tightening measures in order to get international aid. Rapid economic reforms increase the risk of mass social discontent with far-reaching political implications. Should key merchandise exports fall further, producers could face an effective loss of their main markets.

Fast growth may avert foreign banks' exit from Hungary

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Government Relations ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for the banking sector. Significance The government is buying a 30% stake in the Austrian lender Erste Bank under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The MoU signifies a volte-face by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose relationship with foreign-owned banks has been fraught with difficulties since the imposition of a levy on financial institutions in 2010 that drove down earnings and achieved notoriety as one of the highest taxes of its kind in Europe. The government has pledged to reduce the bank tax during 2016-19. Impacts The MoU may not redefine government relations with foreign banks, but could mean more activity on the market by institutional investors. Banks will clean up balance sheets, adopting a 'wait and see' strategy until FX debt relief peters out and the bank tax starts to fall. A return to profitability is unlikely before 2016; much depends on an uptake in corporate and household loans denominated in local currency.

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