New king will shake up the old order in Thailand

Subject Political outlook for Thailand. Significance King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s response to a draft constitution presented to him in December sparked multiple changes in the shape of Thailand’s constitutional monarchy that were quickly ushered through the military-appointed National Legislative Assembly (NLA). The king’s move raises doubts about his commitment to the political status quo. Impacts Changes in the civilian-military power balance could affect businesses attached to partisan interests. Media restrictions will tighten yet further. That the new US administration is occupied elsewhere allows Thailand more diplomatic room.

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.


Significance The news will be welcome to President Idris Deby's government, which relies on oil for over two-thirds of its revenue. Despite its history of rebellions and coups, Chad is in one of its more stable periods, although presidential and parliamentary elections in 2016 could raise tensions. Impacts France will rely on the political status quo in Chad for its regional military mission. Combating perceived threats from Islamist militant groups is becoming critical to building Deby's profile. However, a strong alliance with an authoritarian regime may be a long-term generator of opposition to France's presence in the region.


Subject The political outlook for Thailand. Significance Thailand has scheduled a referendum on a new draft constitution on August 7. The pre-referendum period has been marked by a crackdown on political dissent, but also a spike in organised opposition to the junta by student-led bodies as well as new groups such as the Resistant Citizen and New Democracy Movement. Impacts A crackdown on online activism will create reputational and business risks for social media platforms. The military will monopolise politics regardless of the referendum result, further weakening political parties. International observers will maintain their distance from Bangkok but also avoid a direct confrontation.


2019 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachael E. Comunale

This article examines the development of political opposition in Scotland from 1695 to 1701 in the context of the Company of Scotland Trading to Africa and the Indies. It is argued that the potency of the political movement inspired by Darien derived from the view that King William was directly implicated in the failure of the colony. Three episodes in the Company's history—the loss of subscriptions in Hamburg, the appearance of memorials in the new world prohibiting English aid to the colony and the imprisonment of Darien sailors by the Spanish authorities—are examined in detail. The ramification of these controversies was increasingly seen as the result not of English interference, but rather the crown's refusal to act on behalf of the Company. Because a significant proportion of the population was invested in the Company, and because the press helped to keep Darien in the forefront of public consciousness, these issues transformed Darien into a major political grievance that united disparate political factions in support of a single cause. Although the alliance inspired by Darien was temporary, it, nonetheless, played a crucial role in disrupting the political status quo.


Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.


Author(s):  
Jelle J.P. Wouters

This chapter examines how protracted political conflict shapes the ways ordinary Naga men and women ‘see’ the postcolonial state. For most Nagas, long decades of conflict were marked by a dual relation to the state. On the one hand, they experienced the coercive, repressive powers of the state, while, after the enactment of Nagaland in 1963, the state manifested itself as a source of largesse and livelihood, as part of a politically driven policy of ‘seduction’ to tie Nagas to existing state structures and the political status quo. These historical experiences muddled distinctions between the state as a benevolent provider and protector, and that of a dispenser of bodily violence and misery, between the state as a lucrative resource and reservoir of public resentment. The way Naga villagers engage and ‘see’ the state, I argue, is mediated by this historical ambiguity.


2020 ◽  
pp. xxviii-10
Author(s):  
Rory Costello

This chapter begins by describing the scope and main themes of the book, and explaining the rationale for the countries selected for inclusion. It discusses the prevalence of democracy in Europe, and provides an overview of some of the main similarities and differences between European democracies. A number of recent developments that have challenged the political status quo across the continent are highlighted. The chapter also outlines the general approach taken throughout the book, and discusses the importance of comparison in political research. It concludes with an outline of the book and a brief summary of its three main sections.


2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (5) ◽  
pp. 669-685
Author(s):  
Angelos Loukakis ◽  
Martín Portos

The implementation of austerity and neoliberal policies has disrupted everyday life for a significant number of Europeans, especially among young people. Rising tuition fees, labor market reforms, levels of unemployment, precarious working conditions, and discontent toward the political status quo have contributed to increase moral panics and outrage, which have often triggered mass protests. This article analyses whether and to what extent young Europeans express their demands via protest claims across nine European countries ( N = 4,525). We argue that examining political (institutional and discursive) opportunities and claims’ attributes (such as actors, issues, targets) is important to understand whether a youth-related claim takes a protest form or not.


2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
Author(s):  
MARTA PHILP

Resumen: En el trabajo se analizan las intervenciones de los militares que gobernaron la Argentina  durante la dictadura cá­vico-militar en Argentina en el perá­odo 1976-1983, destinadas a lograr una  tarea central de todo régimen polá­tico: la justificación del poder. A partir de la exclusión de la  polá­tica, declamada pero no practicada, se apropiaron de distintos escenarios para construir maneras  de definir el orden polá­tico, nombrado como democracia sustancial, democracia de los mejores en  oposición a la demagogia, causa de su nueva irrupción en la historia polá­tica argentina el 24 de  marzo de 1976. La imperiosa necesidad de concluir con esta democracia desvirtuada era presentada  como eje de su tarea central: reorganizar la nación, tarea que originó su autodenominación como  ”Proceso de Reorganización Nacional”. Esta reconstrucción de los esfuerzos de los militares en el  poder para legitimar su accionar pretende aportar a la comprensión y explicación de las rupturas  institucionales en América Latina, seguidas de la instauración de gobiernos autoritarios.Palabras clave: Dictadura cá­vico-militar, Justificación del poder, Orden polá­tico.  THE POLITICAL ORDER ACCORDING TO THE ARGENTINE CIVIC-MILITARY DICTATORSHIP 1976-1983Abstract: The paper discusses the interventions by the military which ruled the Argentina during  the military dictatorship in Argentina during the 1976-1983, aimed at achieving a central task of any  political regime: the justification of power. From the exclusion of the policy, recited but not  practiced, they appropriated various scenarios to build ways to define the political order, named as  substantial democracy, democracy of the best as opposed to demagoguery, cause of the new  outbreak in Argentine political history on March 24, 1976. The urgent need to conclude with this  democracy undermined was presented as the core of its central task: reorganizing the nation, task  which originated its self-designation as "Proceso de Reorganización Nacional". This reconstruction  of the efforts of the military power to legitimize their actions intended to contribute to the  understanding and explanation of institutional ruptures in Latin America, followed by the  establishment of authoritarian governments.Keyswords: Civic-military dictatorship, Justification of the power, Political order.


Subject The political outlook in Togo. Significance On April 28, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that President Faure Gnassingbe had won re-election in the presidential ballot held on April 25, with 58.75% of the vote. His controversial third term will extend his family's rule to nearly 50 years. Opposition candidate Jean-Pierre Fabre secured 34.95% of the vote. His Combat for Political Change (CAP) alliance rejects the result. Impacts Western donors' effectiveness at pushing for democratic norms will wane as Togo, like other African states, accesses new debt sources. Togo's membership of the West African CFA franc zone, which is backed by the French treasury, will ensure currency stability. A Burkina Faso-style ouster of Gnassingbe is unlikely, for now -- he enjoys the support of the military who first installed him. Despite being spared the Ebola crisis, standards of public health will remain poor, with child mortality rates far above global averages.


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