Chadian regime propped up despite oil price shock

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Status Quo ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Status ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
History Of ◽  
Military Mission

Significance The news will be welcome to President Idris Deby's government, which relies on oil for over two-thirds of its revenue. Despite its history of rebellions and coups, Chad is in one of its more stable periods, although presidential and parliamentary elections in 2016 could raise tensions. Impacts France will rely on the political status quo in Chad for its regional military mission. Combating perceived threats from Islamist militant groups is becoming critical to building Deby's profile. However, a strong alliance with an authoritarian regime may be a long-term generator of opposition to France's presence in the region.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

New king will shake up the old order in Thailand

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Power Balance ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Status ◽  
Old Order ◽  
The Military ◽  
Constitutional Monarchy ◽  
Draft Constitution

Subject Political outlook for Thailand. Significance King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s response to a draft constitution presented to him in December sparked multiple changes in the shape of Thailand’s constitutional monarchy that were quickly ushered through the military-appointed National Legislative Assembly (NLA). The king’s move raises doubts about his commitment to the political status quo. Impacts Changes in the civilian-military power balance could affect businesses attached to partisan interests. Media restrictions will tighten yet further. That the new US administration is occupied elsewhere allows Thailand more diplomatic room.

Iraq’s converging crises will set back fiscal reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Extra Food ◽  
The Government ◽  
Socioeconomic Crisis

Significance Promised extra food rations have yet to appear, deepening economic pressure on households. Last year’s twin shocks of the pandemic and oil-price collapse contributed to a fiscal and socioeconomic crisis. The revised 2021 budget, signed into law on April 8, avoids structural economic reforms ahead of parliamentary elections due in October. Impacts The government’s lack of policy credibility will make it difficult to secure a reform-linked long-term bailout package from the IMF. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi will offer limited reconstruction assistance, seeking to counterbalance Iranian influence. Service delivery, especially of electricity, will be critically constrained as the government deprioritises capital expenditure.

‘Ill Used by our Government’: The Darien Venture, King William and the Development of Opposition Politics in Scotland, 1695–1701

2019 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachael E. Comunale
Keyword(s):  
Crucial Role ◽  
New World ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Political Status ◽  
The Press ◽  
Public Consciousness ◽  
Political Factions

This article examines the development of political opposition in Scotland from 1695 to 1701 in the context of the Company of Scotland Trading to Africa and the Indies. It is argued that the potency of the political movement inspired by Darien derived from the view that King William was directly implicated in the failure of the colony. Three episodes in the Company's history—the loss of subscriptions in Hamburg, the appearance of memorials in the new world prohibiting English aid to the colony and the imprisonment of Darien sailors by the Spanish authorities—are examined in detail. The ramification of these controversies was increasingly seen as the result not of English interference, but rather the crown's refusal to act on behalf of the Company. Because a significant proportion of the population was invested in the Company, and because the press helped to keep Darien in the forefront of public consciousness, these issues transformed Darien into a major political grievance that united disparate political factions in support of a single cause. Although the alliance inspired by Darien was temporary, it, nonetheless, played a crucial role in disrupting the political status quo.

Jus Tempus in the Magna Carta: The Sovereignty of Time in Modern Politics and Citizenship

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (03) ◽  
pp. 463-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth F. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Early Modern ◽  
The Political ◽  
Place Of Birth ◽  
Political Status ◽  
Modern Politics ◽  
American Tradition ◽  
History Of ◽  
Anglo American ◽  
The Right ◽  
Constitutional Tradition

In the English constitutional tradition, subjecthood has been primarily derived from two circumstances: place of birth and time of birth. People not born in the right place and at the right time are not considered subjects. What political status they hold varies and depends largely on the political history of the territory in which they reside at the exact time of their birth. A genealogy of early modern British subjecthood reveals that law based on dates and temporal durations—what I will call collectivelyjus tempus—creates sovereign boundaries as powerful as territorial borders or bloodlines. This concept has myriad implications for how citizenship comes to be institutionalized in modern politics. In this article, I briefly outline one route through whichjus tempusbecame a constitutive principle within the Anglo-American tradition of citizenship and how this concept works with other principles of membership to create subtle gradations of semi-citizenship beyond the binary of subject and alien. I illustrate two main points aboutjus tempus: first, how specific dates create sovereign boundaries among people and second, how durational time takes on an abstract value in politics that allows certain kinds of attributes, actions, and relationships to be translated into rights-bearing political statuses. I conclude with some remarks about how, once established, the principle ofjus tempusis applied in a diverse array of political contexts.

Election delay will not solve Libya's problems

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
The Core

Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.

The Activity of the Cluj County Branch of the Romanian National Party in the Spring of 1920 as Reflected in the Newspaper Patria

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-63
Author(s):  
Marin Pop ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
National Party ◽  
Old Kingdom ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Draft Resolution ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

"This study aims to highlight the activity of the Cluj County Branch of the Romanian National Party (hereafter abbreviated as RNP) in the spring of 1920, covering the events from the fall of the government led by Alexandru Vaida–Voevod until the end of the parliamentary elections of May–June 1920. After the Great Union, the city of Cluj became the political capital of Transylvania, especially after the Ruling Council, which was the provisional executive body of Transylvania, moved its headquarters from Sibiu to Cluj. Iuliu Maniu, the President of the Ruling Council and of the R.N.P, who was elected at the Sibiu Conference of 9–10 August 1919, had settled in Cluj as well. Moreover, at the head of Cluj County Branch of the RNP were personalities with a rich history of struggle for the cause of National Liberation of the Romanians in Transylvania: Iuliu Coroianu, Emil Hațieganu, Aurel Socol, Sever Dan, Alexandru Rusu, Ioan Giurgiu, the Archpriest Ioan Pop of Morlaca, and the Priest‑Martyr Aurel Muntean from Huedin. After the dismissal of the Vaida government, the Central Executive Committee of the RNP convened a party congress for 24 April 1920, in Alba Iulia. Just before the congress, the Cluj County organization had started the election campaign. Meetings were organized in every town and village, aiming to elect representatives for the Congress in Alba Iulia. On 21 April 1920, a large assembly was held in Cluj, during which the deputies of Cluj presented their work in Parliament. Simultaneously, delegates were elected for the Congress of Alba Iulia. The RNP Congress adopted a draft resolution and the governing bodies were elected. Iuliu Maniu was re‑elected as President. Based on the decisions adopted at the Great National Assembly of Alba Iulia on 1 December 1918, he adopted a working program, which was summarized in thirteen chapters. During the electoral campaign of 1920 two major political groups became polar opposites: the one around the People’s Party, which was in power, and the parties that formed the Parliamentary Bloc and had governed before. On the list of candidates of the Cluj County Branch of the RNP we can mostly find the former MPs of the party, as well as those who had filled various leadership positions within the Ruling Council. Following the electoral process, despite all the efforts of the People’s Party, in power at that time – especially those of Octavian Goga – to dispel the propaganda conducted by the RNP, the latter party managed to obtain 27 seats in the House and 14 in the Senate. This placed the RNP in second place among Romania’s political parties. The Cluj County Branch of the RNP was able to win two of the five electoral districts in the Chamber, as well as two in the Senate, out of the three allocated to the county. Another conclusion would be that, starting from these parliamentary elections, more and more parties from the Old Kingdom penetrated into Transylvania and Banat. They would achieve some success with the voters only when they came to hold power in the state and organize elections. Still, the RNP remained the party with the largest grip on the electorate of Transylvania and Banat, and Cluj became the political capital of Transylvania."

Financing shortfall will push Oman to uneasy austerity

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Project Financing ◽  
Wage Bill ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Year ◽  
Gas Fields

Significance A fiscal crunch exacerbated by the pandemic and associated oil-price crash has forced the authorities to step up long-term ‘Omanisation’ efforts, ultimately taking pressure off the bloated public sector wage bill. This comes as Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, one year into his reign, launches a raft of new political, military and economic initiatives. Impacts Oman will remain compliant with OPEC+ oil production cuts. The sultanate will boost output at its competitive giant Ghazeer and Khazzan gas fields in Block 61 to benefit from high prices. Muscat will prioritise agriculture, fisheries and logistics for non-oil growth but struggle to secure project financing post-pandemic.

South Sudan may struggle to attract oil investment

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
Almost All

Significance Crude oil is central to South Sudan’s economy, providing between 80% and 90% of government revenue and almost all export earnings. Last year’s oil price shock hit the economy hard and prompted two disbursements by the IMF under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) in November 2020 and April 2021. Impacts Net foreign direct investment (FDI) will turn positive in fiscal year (FY) 2020/21, following three years of outflows. The central bank’s weekly foreign exchange auctions will continue to reduce the gap between the official and parallel market rates. Following a contraction of around 4%, GDP is expected to grow modestly at 2-3% in FY 2021/22 and FY 2022/23.

The macroeconomic effects of increase and decrease in oil prices: evidences of asymmetric effects from India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anver Chittangadan Sadath ◽  
Rajesh Herolli Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess whether oil price shocks emanating from oil price increase and decrease have a different impact on the macroeconomic activity. Design/methodology/approach This study conducts the empirical analysis using structural vector auto-regressive model on Indian data for the period from 1996 to 2017. This paper uses four key macroeconomic variables, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), the real rate of interest, real money supply, wholesale price index inflation and various linear and non-linear measures of oil price shock. Findings Empirical results confirm that oil price shock has a significant impact on various macroeconomic variables used in the study. Specifically, shocks emanating from a decline in oil price have a stronger positive impact on real GDP, whereas, a shock due to the rise in oil price has a weaker negative impact on real GDP. Impulse responses confirm that shocks due to a decline in oil prices are long-lasting compared to similar shocks due to a rise in oil prices. Therefore, this study concludes that the macroeconomic impact of oil price shock is asymmetric in India. Originality/value This paper adds the following new insights: First, this paper presents a distinct relationship between the growth rate of oil price and GDP during increasing and decreasing phases of oil price to drive home the case for this study. Second, India has adopted crucial administrative initiatives such as deregulation of the market for petroleum products and the promotion of renewable energy during the study period. Finally, previous studies have revealed specific behavioral and economic features of people in India with respect to the demand for petroleum products. In light of these factors, this paper based on Indian experience would be justified.

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