Close vote will bring instability to Montenegro

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
The Government ◽  
Marked Drop ◽  
Public Opposition ◽  
Coup Attempt ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Djukanovic has dominated Montenegrin politics since the first multiparty elections in 1990. Standing aside may be calculated to ease post-election coalition-building negotiations, since Djukanovic is a divisive figure. However, he is likely to influence the government behind the scenes as DPS president. The elections, the most closely contested since independence in 2006, revealed a deeply divided electorate. Opposition parties have alleged a manufactured crisis after the chief of police announced the arrest of 20 Serbian nationals accused of plotting to destabilise the country. Impacts Belgrade's support for Podgorica's allegations of a coup attempt will continue the close relations between the DPS and Serbia's government. Relations with Moscow will remain cool after the government blamed pro-Russian elements opposed to Montenegro joining NATO for the 'coup'. However, a marked drop in Russian tourism or sudden pull-out of Russian investors, whose presence is highly visible, is unlikely. NATO membership is likely to go ahead, with a discernible weakening of public opposition even in quarters previously strongly opposed. Increased instability would slow European integration, which might lose pace further should the opposition unexpectedly form a government.

Uganda’s opposition will gain ground despite poll loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.

Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.

Nicaragua pandemic downplaying is a political gamble

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Social Impacts ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Economic And Social Impacts ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Some initiatives have been introduced to help counter the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, but the government’s actions appear to be driven less by the need to address the health crisis than by a desire to shore up political support ahead of elections next year. Impacts Opposition parties are beginning to forge electoral alliances in the hope of benefitting from popular frustration with the government. Trade and investment into Nicaragua will remain minimal, with external firms wary about the potential prevalence of COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will affect the potential for US aid and investment.

Oromo coalition will trouble Ethiopia’s ruling party

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Home State ◽  
Democratic Dialogue ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Coalition-building ahead of Ethiopia's 2020 elections. Significance Following months of negotiations, the leaders of the three biggest Oromo opposition parties -- the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo National Party (ONP) -- on January 3 announced the formation of the Coalition for Democratic Federalism (CDF). This new platform will pose a serious electoral challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s newly formed Prosperity Party (formerly the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)) in Oromia, Abiy’s home state. Impacts As the OFC is already a member of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia (MEDREK) opposition alliance, the CDF may also join. Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post electoral system will encourage further coalition-building, especially among opposition parties. If the CDF pushes claims of Oromo ‘ownership’ over Addis Ababa, this would complicate relations with other actors.

Reforms will strengthen Singapore opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Constitutional Changes ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Constitutional reform in Singapore. Significance Parliament is expected in August to receive recommendations on electoral and constitutional changes that will affect opposition politics and executive powers. The government raised the initiatives in parliament in January; Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said they would be beneficial to Singapore and its government. However, the measures are also likely to benefit the People's Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965. Impacts Presidential elections are unlikely to become more competitive. Opposition parties would gain parliamentary exposure if the reform recommendations are enacted. Government scrutiny of corporations' activities in the community and local politics will intensify.

Balance of power in East Africa is shifting

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Stage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ugandan Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Kiir's ally, the Ugandan government, yesterday publicly urged him to sign. However, Kampala's credibility among regional neighbours is under strain given the presence of its troops supporting the Juba government. Elsewhere, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has played an unconvincing role in the thwarted mediation process in Burundi between the government and opposition parties. These two crises have highlighted Uganda's dwindling effectiveness on the regional stage. At the same time, Kenya, supported by its relationship with Ethiopia, has begun to take on the leadership mantle. Impacts Rwanda's government will continue to enjoy a more productive relationship with Kenya than Uganda. However, Burundi's crisis keeps complicating regional ties, with Tanzania and Burundi suspecting that Rwanda had a role in the failed coup. Rwanda's poor relations with Tanzania may be healed when the latter's current president steps down ahead of October polls.

Land sale scandal in Japan will have broader impact

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private School ◽  
Civil Service ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Land Sale ◽  
Political Scandal ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The 'Moritomo Gakuen' scandal. Significance A political scandal has re-emerged concerning the sale of government land at a heavy discount to a nationalist private school operator reportedly linked to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife, Akie. The latest revelation is that the finance ministry falsified documents to conceal Akie's involvement. The opposition parties are divided and weak in terms of their numbers in parliament, but they have managed to use the events of recent days to destabilise Abe. Impacts This and other cases of misrepresentation will further shake public trust in the government. Trust in the political impartiality of the civil service will also be damaged. Even if Abe survives and is re-elected, damage to his ‘brand’ could undermine his campaign to revise Japan's constitution.

Algerian reforms will struggle to convince sceptics

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
New Order ◽  
Foreign Missions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
Political Act ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Situation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The initiative is the president’s first major political act and will set the course for intra-elite relations, foreign policy and his administration’s relationship with the protest movement that precipitated the removal of Tebboune’s predecessor last year. Impacts The timing of any referendum will be determined by both the health situation and an assessment of the popular mood. A small number of opposition parties will likely endorse the amendments, seeking access to state resources in the new order. The government will hope that allowing the army to partake in foreign missions can help boost regional and international ties.

Thai military will try to avoid launching a coup

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Police Chief ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Protest Activity ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Beyond calling for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s resignation, protesters have been challenging the military’s influence on politics and demanding reform of the monarchy. King Maha Vajiralongkorn and the army chief, Narongpan Jitkaewthae, have been silent on the protests since the decree was issued, while the police chief, Suwat Changyodsuk, has effectively been acting as a spokesman for the government. Impacts Continuing protests could set back plans to revive the tourism sector following its pandemic-related shutdown. Thai communities abroad will step up protest activity in solidarity with demonstrators in Thailand. Prayut will try to strengthen his governing coalition by encouraging defections from opposition parties.

Executive-judicial tensions will rise in Argentina

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
The Other ◽  
Supreme Court Justice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Justice Reform ◽  
Judicial Appointments ◽  
Procedure Code ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance While initial reports suggest a suicide, the case highlights tensions between the executive on the one hand, and the judicial branch and opposition parties on the other -- tensions already rekindled by the recent resignation of Supreme Court Justice Eugenio Raul Zaffaroni. Disputes over the government-backed criminal justice reform, as well as serious accusations -- including impeachment requests -- against Procurator General Alejandra Gils Carbo, suggest executive-judicial relations will be uneasy at least until the presidential hand-over in December. Impacts The president, who has as yet appointed no Supreme Court judges, may attempt to negotiate unilaterally with some opposition parties. The executive faces several court defeats, particularly over the Criminal Procedure Code and temporary judicial appointments. The government will use the Secretariat of Intelligence to try to mitigate the judicial offensive against allies.

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