The political future of Colombia's FARC is bleak

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
The Political ◽  
Civilian Life ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Shifts ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Transition To Civilian Life ◽  
The Government

Significance The meeting has been markedly less militaristic than previous gatherings, with unarmed FARC leaders in civilian clothes, addressing the group on demobilisation and their transition towards becoming a peaceful political movement. It has also been unusually open, with representatives from both the government and the international press being granted unprecedented access. Impacts While FARC leaders will have a quick transition to civilian life, mid- and low-ranking members will struggle. Power shifts in rural, former FARC-dominated areas could be bloody. In the long term, FARC fracturing and political instability in Venezuela could give rise to new cross-border criminal organisations.

Italy's Renzi will face critical tests before year-end

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.

Oreskovic government in Croatia may prove short-lived

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Economic Restructuring ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Conservatism

Significance After protracted negotiations, Croatia, at last, has a government, comprising the conservative Patriotic Coalition -- the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), plus a few small parties -- and the centre-right Bridge ('Most') of Independent Lists. The government is unusual because it is led by a non-partisan figure, Tihomir Oreskovic, a businessman who grew up in Canada and has only a shaky grasp of the Croatian language. In a best-case scenario, the government could deliver important and necessary reforms. Impacts Efforts to cut public spending will reduce the risk of a damaging financing crisis. A programme of economic restructuring will boost Croatia's long-term growth prospects. The election of two right-wing parties will consolidate the drift towards social conservatism. Tensions in the coalition will perpetuate political instability and could precipitate new elections.

Mongolia's stability and growth face external threats

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Political Unity ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Forces

Subject The political and economic outlook for Mongolia. Significance Mongolia is recovering from a largely self-inflicted financial crisis that resulted in an IMF bailout two years ago. Meanwhile, isolationism in the United States and weakened political unity in the EU leave Mongolia with little choice but to slide further towards the neighbouring powers, China and Russia -- an uncomfortable trend for the sole liberal democracy in the region. Mongolia’s return to growth and relative political calm is dampened by external forces including weakness in metals prices and emerging market currencies. Impacts The government will focus on strengthening the economy; the direction of economic policy bodes well for continued growth. Infrastructure needs, such as energy and secure long-term water supplies for the capital, will see significant progress towards resolution. The 'truce' between the two major parties makes political conditions ripe for disruption by a new political movement or politician.

Weak economy compounds Moldovan political instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
The Political ◽  
Substantial Influence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
The Government

Significance Economic weakness plus popular resentment of an elite seen as corrupt creates potential for mass demonstrations by pro- and anti-EU factions. Russia's importance as an economic partner is waning but it retains substantial influence through sympathetic political parties. A presidential election this October will be coloured by the unresolved bank fraud scandal, which has created a gulf between the political establishment and the electorate. Impacts Mainstream politicians will be find it hard to shake off perceived links to corruption. Prominent figures, whether oligarchs or pro-Russian politicians, may therefore avoid standing as presidential candidates. Lack of systemic reforms is a constraint on Moldova's ability to engage with EU economies. Domestic turmoil makes the government less likely to challenge Transnistria, which will remain a conduit for Russian pressure.

Guinea-Bissau deadlock will threaten fragile growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Court Action ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance A month previously, the ECOWAS had reiterated its displeasure over the lack of progress in resolving the ongoing political impasse and issued an ultimatum to political actors to implement the 2016 Conakry Agreement or face sanctions. The UN has also threatened to initiate punitive measures if the political situation deteriorates further between President Jose Mario Vaz and his ruling party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). Impacts Given the risk of a military coup, ECOWAS is likely to retain some of its troops until after the 2018 legislative election. A court action by two banks against the government could endanger IMF loans and donors' budgetary support. Ongoing political instability could lead to increased activities by organised criminal and terrorist networks.

Negative Media Effects and Islamic Remedies (Penyelesaian Kepada Kesan Negatif Media Menurut Perspektif Islam)

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Mohd. Shuhaimi Ishak
Keyword(s):  
Public Relations ◽  
Social Influences ◽  
The Political ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Essential Form ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
Effects Of Media ◽  
Political Economic

 Abstract Generally speaking, media is extensively used as the means to disseminate news and information pertaining to business, social, political and religious concerns. A portion of the time and space of media has now become an important device to generate economic and social activities that include advertising, marketing, recreation and entertainment. The Government regards them as an essential form of relaying news and information to its citizens and at the same time utilizes them as a powerful public relations’ mechanism. The effects of media are many and diverse, which can either be short or long term depending on the news and information. The effects of media can be found on various fronts, ranging from the political, economic and social, to even religious spheres. Some of the negative effects arising from the media are cultural and social influences, crimes and violence, sexual obscenities and pornography as well as liberalistic and extreme ideologies. This paper sheds light on these issues and draws principles from Islam to overcome them. Islam as revealed to humanity contains the necessary guidelines to nurture and mould the personality of individuals and shape them into good servants. Key Words: Media, Negative Effects, Means, Islam and Principles. Abstrak Secara umum, media secara meluas digunakan sebagai sarana untuk menyebarkan berita dan maklumat yang berkaitan dengan perniagaan, kemasyarakatan, pertimbangan politik dan agama. Sebahagian dari ruang dan masa media kini telah menjadi peranti penting untuk menghasilkan kegiatan ekonomi dan sosial yang meliputi pengiklanan, pemasaran, rekreasi dan hiburan. Kerajaan menganggap sarana-sarana ini sebagai wadah penting untuk menyampaikan berita dan maklumat kepada warganya dan pada masa yang sama juga menggunakannya sebagai mekanisme perhubungan awam yang berpengaruh. Pengaruh media sangat banyak dan pelbagai, samada berbentuk jangka pendek atau panjang bergantung kepada berita dan maklumat yang brekenaan. Kesan dari media boleh didapati mempengaruhi pelbagai aspek, bermula dari bidang politik, ekonomi, sosial bahkan juga agama. Beberapa kesan negatif yang timbul dari media ialah pengaruhnya terhadap budaya dan sosial, jenayah dan keganasan, kelucahan seksual dan pornografi serta ideologi yang liberal dan ekstrim. Kertas ini menyoroti isu-isu ini dan cuba mengambil prinsip-prinsip dari ajaran Islam untuk mengatasinya. Tujuan Islam itu sendiri diturunkan kepada umat manusia ialah untuk menjadi pedoman yang diperlukan untuk membina dan membentuk keperibadian individu dan menjadikan manusia hamba yang taat kepada Tuhannya. Kata Kunci: Media, Kesan Negatif, Cara-cara, Islam dan Prinsip-prinsip.

Using system dynamics to evaluate renewable electricity development in Malaysia

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmad ◽  
Razman bin Mat Tahar
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Targets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of Malaysia's renewable capacity target. Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation. To diversify the fuel-mix, a technology-specific target has been set by the government in 2010. Considering the complexity in generation expansion, there is a dire need for an assessment model that can evaluate policy in a feedback fashion. The study also aims to expand policy evaluation literature in electricity domain by taking a dynamic systems approach. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics modelling and simulation approach is used in this study. The model variables, selected from literature, are constituted into casual loop diagram. Later, a stock and flow diagram is developed by integrating planning, construction, operation, and decision making sub-models. The dynamic interactions between the sub-sectors are analysed based on the short-, medium- and long-term policy targets. Findings – Annual capacity constructions fail to achieve short-, medium- and long-term targets. However, the difference in operational capacity and medium- and long-term target are small. In terms of technology, solar photovoltaic (PV) attains the highest level of capacity followed by biomass. Research limitations/implications – While financial calculations are crucial for capacity expansion decisions, currently they are not being modelled; this study primarily focuses on system delays and exogenous components only. Practical implications – A useful model that offers regulators and investors insights on system characteristics and policy targets simultaneously. Originality/value – This paper provides a model for evaluating policy for renewable capacity expansion development in a dynamic context, for Malaysia.

Pandemic may drive new wealth taxes in Latin America

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Latin Americans ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Wealth Tax ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Tax Cuts

Significance The region’s current tax and spending policies redistribute very little. The COVID-19 pandemic brought a deep and persistent recession, despite new spending, tax cuts and monetary easing aimed at limiting the damage. In December, the government of Argentina, which was particularly hard hit, passed a temporary (and additional) net wealth tax on the very richest households. Impacts OECD-led transparency efforts offer the long-sought possibility of taxing the foreign assets of wealthy Latin Americans. The pandemic will increase both existing inequalities and the need for tax revenues to finance social welfare and stimulus spending. Efforts to strengthen tax collection more broadly will likely be undertaken by governments across the political spectrum.

Import obstacles will slow Argentine economic rebound

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Luxury Goods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Product Availability ◽  
Regulatory Changes ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Red Tape ◽  
The Government

Significance In January, the Central Bank of Argentina restricted access to the official exchange market for imports of some luxury goods, while the government asked companies to present their foreign trade estimates for 2021 and suggested that it would not approve any rise in imports unless this was offset with higher exports. Importers are facing mounting delays, which raise costs and hamper domestic production by restricting access to inputs. Impacts Higher import costs due to red-tape delays and shortages of product availability will fuel already high inflation. Frequent regulatory changes will discourage long-term investments and damage importers’ relations with foreign suppliers. Import controls will hit the auto sector hard, with a negative spillover effect in manufacturing more broadly.

Tourism public-private partnership (PPP) projects: an exploratory-sequential approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marwa Ghanem ◽  
Ibrahim Elshaer ◽  
Samar Saad
Keyword(s):  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Stakeholder Management ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Sequential Approach ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This study aims to address the absence of a thorough understanding of commitment in tourism public-private partnerships (PPP) by exploring antecedents of PPP commitment and their underpinning relationships in regard to the destination management system (DMS). Design/methodology/approach An empirical investigation of the case of the Egyptian DMS, a PPP which was forsaken by the government partner and which subsequently failed. Qualitative and quantitative approaches are used for a comprehensive overview of the researched phenomena pertaining to external and internal stakeholders. Findings The results indicated that stakeholder management, relational capital, perceived benefits and stakeholder capabilities could influence intentions to commit to a tourism PPP project. Also, the latter three factors were found to mediate the relationship between stakeholder management and long-term PPP commitment. The results also shed light on the important aspects of non-contractual, interpersonal relationships between internal and external PPP stakeholders. Originality/value This research pioneers inquiries on the commitment of Tourism PPP/DMS projects and its possible drivers in a non-Western context. Also, this study contributes to knowledge by exploring the relationship within and between internal (partners) and external (e.g. local service providers) stakeholder groups and provided evidence on the crucial role of both on long-term PPP commitment and success. The current study has a few significant contributions to the PPP literature regarding the commitment and success of PPP in the complicated environments in which tourism PPP projects are operated. Moreover, this study offers essential information and practices for improving partner relationships with external stakeholders.

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