New internal hurdles deepen Indonesia's growth strain

Subject Outlook for growth and reform in Indonesia. Significance Indonesia's economic performance over the last year has been a cause for concern for President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo, who had initially targeted 7% growth during his term. The economy is now struggling to achieve growth above 5%. Impacts Indonesia will lose to competitors such as Vietnam that have zero-tariff access to the world's largest markets. Key infrastructure projects will be stalled or delayed, frustrating foreign partners. This year is likely to see GDP growth of 5.0-5.2%.

Significance The claims follow the ANI’s announcement on February 22 that it would cancel the contract of an Odebrecht-led consortium to build the Ruta del Sol 2 highway, linking central Colombia to the Caribbean coast. Impacts The risk of potentially intrusive investigations will remain high for firms with commercial or contractual links to Odebrecht. Delays in completion of infrastructure projects could bring Colombia’s GDP growth rates for 2017 below the current forecasts of 2.7%. Later in the year, new infrastructure investment opportunities will open as corruptly awarded contracts are resubmitted for tender. Allegations that Santos’s 2014 election campaign received Odebrecht funding could harm his Party of the U in the 2018 election.


Significance In a long-awaited move to stimulate the economy and restore investor confidence, Jokowi replaced five ministers and reassigned one. The reshuffle is not surprising given Indonesia's sub-par economic performance (4.7% GDP growth in the second quarter and 4.6% in the first); a precipitous decline of its currency (the rupiah has hit a 15-year low); a stalled infrastructure drive; and the declining popularity of the president. Impacts Central government infrastructure spending is likely to rise, boosting growth by late 2015 and early 2016. Vested interests within government will impede Jokowi's attempt to curb corruption, but future scandals will erode his popularity. Prospects for overhauling military-executive ties are grim despite the military's links to illicit activities in the resource sector.


Subject Chile's economic outlook. Significance On July 23, in an update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF slashed its forecast for economic growth this year in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1.4% to 0.6%, due principally to a sharp cut for Brazil. By contrast, the reduction for Chile, from 3.4% to 3.2%, was small but may err on the side of optimism. Impacts Dependence on copper remains a key challenge for Chile as regards both GDP growth and fiscal revenues. Slower growth particularly worries the new lower-middle class, eager for further gains in living standards. In the foreseeable future, Chile’s economic performance will likely be constrained by external conditions.


Subject Worsening economic prospects in 2015. Significance Georgia has already started to be affected by the substantial deterioration in Russia's economic performance and the steep depreciation of the ruble against major currencies, particularly in the final quarter of 2014. Russia became Georgia's third-most-important trading partner in 2014, and remittance flows from Russia are an important source of foreign exchange. Currencies in the Caucasus and Central Asia have faced depreciation pressures, with Turkmenistan forced to devalue its currency on January 1, followed by Azerbaijan on February 21. Impacts Domestic demand will fall this year, as remittance flows weaken. The devaluation of Azerbaijan's manat in late February will have a negative impact on exports, as it is Georgia's top export market. If Western sanctions against Russia are not lifted in July, as expected, this will worsen the outlook for the Georgian economy.


Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1083-1102
Author(s):  
Georgios N. Aretoulis ◽  
Jason Papathanasiou ◽  
Fani Antoniou

Purpose This paper aims to rank and identify the most efficient project managers (PMs) based on personality traits, using Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) methodology. Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology relies on the five personality traits. These were used as the selection criteria. A questionnaire survey among 82 experienced engineers was used to estimate the required weights per personality trait. A second two-part questionnaire survey aimed at recording the PMs profile and assess the performance of personality traits per PM. PMs with the most years of experience are selected to be ranked through Visual PROMETHEE. Findings The findings suggest that a competent PM is the one that scores low on the “Neuroticism” trait and high especially on the “Conscientiousness” trait. Research limitations/implications The research applied a psychometric test specifically designed for Greek people. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is based on the personality characteristics to rank the PMs and does not consider the technical skills. Furthermore, the type of project is not considered in the process of ranking PMs. Practical implications The findings could contribute in the selection of the best PM that maximizes the project team’s performance. Social implications Improved project team communication and collaboration leading to improved project performance through better communication and collaboration. This is an additional benefit for the society, especially in the delivery of public infrastructure projects. A lot of public infrastructure projects deviate largely as far as cost and schedule is concerned and this is an additional burden for public and society. Proper project management through efficient PMs would save people’s money and time. Originality/value Identification of the best PMbased on a combination of multicriteria decision-making and psychometric tests, which focus on personality traits.


2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 1422-1442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janet Godsell ◽  
Donato Masi ◽  
Antonios Karatzas ◽  
Timothy Mark Brady

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the applicability and utility of supply chain (SC) segmentation through demand profiling to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of infrastructure projects by identifying different types of project demand profiles. Design/methodology/approach A three-stage abductive research design was adopted. Stage 1 explored the applicability of SC segmentation, through demand profiling, to the portfolio of infrastructure projects in a utility company. Stage 2 was an iterative process of “theory matching”, to the portfolio, programme and project management literature. In stage 3, theoretical saturation was reached and “theory suggestions” were made through four propositions. Findings Four propositions outline how SC segmentation through project demand profiling could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of infrastructure projects. P1: the ability to recognise the different demand profiles of individual projects, and groups thereof, is a portfolio management necessity. P2: projects that contribute to the strategic upgrade of a capital asset should be considered a potential programme of inter-related repeatable projects whose delivery would benefit from economies of repetition. P3: the greater the ability to identify different demand profiles of individual/groups of projects, the greater the delivery efficiency. P4: economies of repetition developed through efficient delivery of programmes of repeatable projects can foster greater efficiency in the delivery of innovative projects through economies of recombination. Originality/value This work fills a gap in the portfolio management literature, suggesting that the initial screening, selection and prioritisation of project proposals should be expanded to recognise not only the project type, but also each project’s demand profile.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-171
Author(s):  
Ganesh R. ◽  
Naresh Gopal ◽  
Thiyagarajan S.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine industry herding among the institutional investors and to find whether their herding behaviour is intentional or unintentional. Design/methodology/approach The study uses Lakonishok et al. (1992) model to examine the presence of industry herding behaviour among institutional investors. To determine whether the herding observed is intentional or unintentional, herding measure is regressed with volatility, volume, beta and return. The period of the study is from 1 April 2005-31 March 2015. Findings The findings of the study showed that though institutional investors have herding tendency towards most of the industries, in the overall period industry herding was not significant. The herding found in some industrial sectors was linked to economic performance of those sectors in India during the period of study and hence the herding was unintentional in nature. Research limitations/implications This is the first attempt to study industry herding among institutional investors and their intent in Indian market ever since the country opened its market to foreign investors in a big way. Present study is limited to the use of only bulk/block data instead of the entire trading data for the period. Originality/value This study is the first attempt to investigate industry herding behaviour of institutional investors in the market using their bulk and block trading data. The herding observed in well performing industries has been shown to be unintentional and hence rational. The results indicate that the entry of big institutional investors, including foreign institutions into the Indian market has not destabilised the market by irrational herding.


Significance Meanwhile, its programme to vaccinate the population against the coronavirus is proceeding slowly: fewer than 160,000 of its roughly 98 million people are fully inoculated. The only COVID-19 vaccine administered by the authorities to date is the UK-Swedish AstraZeneca shot, but Hanoi has received and ordered doses of other jabs as well. Impacts The authorities will keep use of Chinese vaccines limited. Quickly widening vaccination coverage will be key to realising the targeted average annual GDP growth of 6.5-7.0% in 2021-25. Vietnam will aim to become a key manufacturing hub for global vaccine supply chains.


Significance Since taking office last June, Ndayishimiye has taken small steps in this direction, but the progress and outlook remain mixed. Impacts Ndayishimiye’s attempts to mend ties with neighbouring Rwanda may enjoy the most success among his new initiatives. Burundi hopes a planned new rail link with Tanzania can help boost mining exports, but funding the USD1.9bn project may prove challenging. New infrastructure projects will be crucial for Burundi’s economy after years of anaemic growth, now exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.


Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


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