Russian tourists return to Turkey as others stay away

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Media Freedom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Negative Publicity ◽  
State Group

Significance An informal rapprochement between Turkey and Russia has lifted Moscow's ban on holidays in Turkey, implemented after Turkish jets downed a Russian warplane last November. However, an attack on Istanbul's main airport less than a day after the Russian deal was announced left 45 dead and has been blamed on Islamic State group (ISG). The third attack targeting tourists this year, it has demonstrated that Turkey faces an uphill struggle both in dealing with Islamist extremism, and in convincing foreigners that it is safe to visit. Impacts Russian tourists are rushing to book holidays, but the summer total will be much lower than the 700,000 visitor average of previous years. Unless a new peace initiative with Kurdish separatists is launched, they could focus attacks on the tourism sector. Restrictions on media freedom will make it harder to combat negative publicity about Turkey.

Prospects for the Middle East in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Negotiations ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
The Third ◽  
State Group

Subject Prospects for the Middle East in the third quarter. Significance International negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme are set to culminate in an agreement early in the quarter, reshaping the regional geopolitical map. Meanwhile the new leadership in Saudi Arabia will be tested on multiple fronts, including Yemen, the expanding influence of Islamic State group (ISG), and adjusting its economic policies to a new era of lower oil prices. Libya is looking for agreement on a national unity government.

Turkey's counterterrorism policy risks more violence

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Northern Iraq ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Us ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
State Group ◽  
Counterterrorism Policy

Significance The meeting follows Turkey's launch of military strikes on July 24 against Islamic State group (ISG) in northern Syria and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. Although Ankara says it is pursuing a broader strategy against terrorism, it has two asymmetrical goals. Against ISG, its measures remain largely defensive in nature, including driving ISG from the border and reducing the threat of blowback inside Turkey. Against the PKK, they appear more ambitious and appear designed to crush the organisation and use force rather than dialogue to resolve the demands of Turkey's Kurds for greater cultural and political rights. Impacts The US-led coalition may move the main platform for its air campaign in Syria and Iraq to Turkey, reducing flying times to targets. Ankara is likely to stop short of deploying ground troops in Syria. ISG may retaliate inside Turkey, particularly against its tourism sector. AKP may abandon coalition negotiations and go for the nationalist vote to recover its majority in early elections, possibly in November. Crackdown on ISG activities inside Turkey could weaken the group in Syria.

Harsher grip will speed Turkey's drift to violence

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Islamic Extremism

Significance The latest bombing is the third in the capital since October, taking the total killed to nearly 170. The October incident is attributed to Islamic State group, the February one to ultra-hardline Kurdish terrorists. For many Turks repeated bombings in Ankara and Istanbul -- unprecedented in the country's history -- are the consequence of the ever-more inflexible and rigid rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ratcheting up tensions, particularly among the Kurds, but failing to ensure security for ordinary people or tackle Islamic extremism. Impacts The government says it knows the perpetrators, but has again made informed comment very difficult by immediately imposing a reporting ban. A rising spiral of political violence will weaken business confidence. Kurdish reprisals will continue for the crushing of the insurgency in towns in the south-east.

Caribbean will struggle to address limited ISG threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Location ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Direct And Indirect Impacts ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
State Group

Subject Concerns over Islamic State group (ISG) activities in the Caribbean. Significance Over the past few months concerns have grown over the influence of Islamic State group (ISG) in the Caribbean. This has focused primarily on Caribbean nationals travelling to the Middle East to join ISG, and the vulnerability of the Caribbean to attacks and as a route-way north for ISG members to gain entry into the United States. Thus far the direct and indirect impacts of ISG on the region have been limited, but there are some risks. Impacts Despite relatively small numbers involved, inadequate security and geographical location will raise Caribbean concerns. Social marginalisation and poor prospects may facilitate radicalisation and recruitment to extremist groups. Within the Caribbean, the key tourism sector could be threatened.

Rise of Shia militias will reshape Iraqi politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Subject The rise of Iraq's Shia militias. Significance Shia militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), are the most capable offensive forces at the federal government's disposal in its fight against Islamic State group (ISG). Yet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's cabinet only exercises limited control over these forces, many of which receive backing from Iran. While Iraq's battle against ISG is progressing steadily, the emergence of these powerful Shia militias could represent a larger medium-term challenge to state stability. Impacts Shia militias will probably be less effective in Sunni-only areas. Iraq boasts insufficient offensive forces to attack Mosul in the first half of 2015. The National Guard initiative will take months to be ratified in parliament. Politics in the oil-rich south will be complicated by a power struggle between Shia politicians and militia leaders.

Libya beheadings strengthen anti-Islamist agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
State Group

Significance The strikes were in response to a video released by the Islamic State group (ISG) yesterday showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts who had been kidnapped from Sirte on two separate occasions on December 31 and January 3. Brigadier Saqer al-Joroushi, who commands the air force for the armed group of former General Khalifa Haftar, said the strikes were carried out in coordination between them and Egypt. He added that further strikes were going to take place. Impacts The beheadings are sharpening divisions within the moderate Islamist Libya Dawn camp. This might trigger a confrontation between its more moderate elements and the more radical ones. The killings will reinforce popular Egyptian support for Sisi and his anti-Islamist agenda.

Jihadi groups will compete for support in the Maghreb

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
International Action ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
State Group

Significance Instability in Libya has exacerbated an already fraught security environment in the Maghreb and the Sahel. Several militant groups co-exist in these parts, usually in competition with each other. The Islamic State group (ISG) has taken centre stage, but despite high profile attacks in Libya, it has failed to establish a foothold in other Maghreb countries. Impacts ISG encroachment in Libya will strengthen calls for international action to address Libya's crisis. Sporadic attacks are expected against security forces and government targets in Tunisia and Algeria. Government pressure and expanded counterterrorism operations could cause more widespread abuses of human rights. Fighters returning from jihad in Syria and Iraq could bolster the capabilities of local jihadist cells.

Turkey's Kurds will be angry if HDP is not re-elected

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Religious Elements

Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.

Mosul will test US efforts to rebuild Iraqi army

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
And Training

Subject US Iraqi Train and Equip Fund. Significance The US Department of Defense has requested an additional 630 million dollars for the Iraqi Train and Equip Fund (ITEF) in the 2016-17 fiscal year. This fund, hurriedly brought into existence in the summer of 2014, was developed to provide assistance and training to the Iraqi army in the wake of its disastrous performance against Islamic State group (ISG) forces. Forces trained under the ITEF will be a key component of the planned offensive to retake the ISG stronghold of Mosul later this year. Impacts The programme is unlikely to continue once Mosul has been retaken -- although other funding streams will continue. Its success would strengthen the Iraqi army, thereby empowering central government against pro-Iran, hardline militias. Its failure would strengthen these militias and increase the prospects of a semi-permanent fragmentation of the Iraqi state.

Yemen campaign raises Saudi stability risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
State Group ◽  
At Home

Significance The Saudi-led campaign against the Huthi movement in Yemen looks set to continue well into 2016. At the end of 2015 there were signs that the length and scale of the coalition effort had weakened the Huthis, but not yet to a point where the group is ready for serious negotiations. Impacts The war will enable both al-Qaida and Islamic State group (ISG) to expand in Yemen and potentially threaten Saudi Arabia. The conflict will intensify anti-Shia rhetoric in Saudi Arabia, further straining the loyalty of the Saudi Shia minority. Fiscal pressures at home will increase Saudi Arabia's incentive to draw the conflict to a close. Progress in Yemen could boost the succession prospects of the war's key architect, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

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