Mexico's police reform will be weakly implemented

Subject Police reform. Significance On May 6, the 2016 World Internal Security and Police Reform Index was published, ranking Mexico's security apparatus 118th out of 126 countries. The government has long been aware of the problem and in November 2014, after the high-profile disappearance of 43 students, allegedly at the hands of local police in Guerrero, President Enrique Pena Nieto submitted to the Senate a programme for security reform. Having faced delays and many difficulties, it has regained salience this year. Impacts Disagreements among political parties will hinder reform, undermining the government's security record. Government reliance on voluntary unified police command agreements will undermine security improvements. Local security fears will increase, potentially influencing June's gubernatorial elections.

Significance The announcement was part of a cabinet reshuffle on May 14, which saw changes to several important portfolios, including energy, finance and interior. Bouteflika's intervention reflects concern about the impact of cheap oil on the economy. It also comes amid mounting popular discontent about economic and social issues, several high-profile corruption trials and intense infighting within the main political parties. Impacts The reshuffle will not change the perception that the government lacks direction due to Bouteflika's illness. Confusion over the stewardship of foreign policy reinforces the impression that the ruling system is riven with factionalism. Sellal is secure for a few months, but this could change amid upheavals in the main political parties.


Significance The MAS’s national-level appeal tends not to translate into support in localised elections, and a poor choice of candidates, particularly in El Alto, has proved self-defeating. Impacts Second-round gubernatorial elections will probably take place in six out of nine departments. Camacho, a far-right businessman turned politician, will use his newly gained legitimacy to harry the government. The Arce government will seek a modus vivendi with opposition mayors such as those of La Paz and Cochabamba.


2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 118-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Pace

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that cyberattacks are having on organizations and the growing need these create for H.R. departments to collaborate more closely with IT departments. Design/methodology/approach Current thinking regarding managing cybersecurity suggests that it should be managed holistically, i.e. by the human resources (HR) department and information technology (IT) department working together more closely. This sees the IT department providing the IT security tools and the HR department providing the appropriate processes and procedures that need to be followed, as well as creating a necessarily more “vigilant” culture. Findings Several practical steps are outlined that will help HR departments protect themselves against a data breach. Originality/value Cyberthreats are amongst the top threats to UK business, according to the government. Managing cybersecurity has long been left almost solely to the technology experts. The continuing number of high-profile data breaches suggests that cybersecurity tools alone will not stop information leaking from companies. There is an important role for HR teams in encouraging and enforcing a more proactive, vigilant culture amongst the workforce and working more closely with IT to improve security practices.


Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.


Significance This follows former Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa’s announcement on March 29 of a new, non-ideological party that includes technocrats and former ministers -- the Alternative Party. Six years after the 2011 Arab uprisings, Tunisian politics is still in flux -- facing serious social and economic challenges. Impacts Protests and industrial strikes will continue in the months ahead as the government tries to reduce public spending. Political parties are losing the trust of the population. Further cabinet reshuffles are likely, but political leaders are wary of making bold structural reforms.


Subject The recapture of the world's most-wanted drug trafficker. Significance On January 8, federal police detained fugitive drug trafficker Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman Loera, following his high-profile escape from the maximum-security Altiplano prison on July 11. Both his escape and his recapture have generated considerable media attention, and could have ramifications for organised crime, the government of President Enrique Pena Nieto and US-Mexican relations. Impacts Another escape, though possible, is extremely unlikely. El Chapo's extradition may not take place until after the end of Pena Nieto's term. Any popularity increase for Pena Nieto resulting from the recapture will be short lived. While the Sinaloa cartel is relatively cohesive, it may splinter in the medium-to-long term.


Significance Another field, Chouech Essaida, has been shut since February 28 because of labour unrest. Demonstrations extend beyond the oil and gas sector. Months of protests across Tunisia are beginning to exact a toll on the coalition government as demonstrators return to the streets of the capital to challenge the latest effort to pass a controversial ‘economic reconciliation’ bill that would in effect give amnesty to businessmen who engaged in corrupt practices under the former regime. Impacts The unity of the coalition government will come under further pressure as ministers struggle to respond to demonstrations. Political parties risk becoming more isolated from the electorate without major internal reforms. The government will be tempted to return to more authoritarian techniques of rule as protests deepen.


Subject Fiscal reform protests. Significance President Carlos Alvarado is facing his most severe test since taking office in May, with his efforts to pass a long-awaited fiscal reform sparking strikes and protests across the country. Although the government has initiated a dialogue with trade unions, sustained opposition means that the fiscal reform is likely to be watered down substantially. Impacts Transport disruption will affect regional trade, compounding the transit problems caused by unrest in Nicaragua. The national strike’s success may encourage more such actions in future, potentially over public-sector wage increases. Alvarado’s weakness will increase the dominance of rival political parties in the legislature.


Subject Outlook for presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau. Significance Controversial outgoing President Jose Mario Vaz is among twelve candidates vying for the presidency on November 24. While the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)-backed elections are set to go ahead as planned, fears linger that they will not end recurring political turmoil. Impacts If Pereira wins, he will likely try drafting a new constitution to give greater clarity to the current ambiguous semi-presidential system. Ongoing political instability will exacerbate border insecurity and long-standing narco-trafficking. A more active, internationally backed civil society will ensure added scrutiny of political parties and the government over the long term.


Significance The government has locked the country down for four weeks and legislated to borrow up 52 million dollars (30.7 million US dollars), equivalent to 17% of GDP. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is using several monetary policy tools to meet its inflation and employment targets, keep interest rates low and support financial market liquidity. Impacts Tourism, the largest export-earner, and high-earners logging and education, will suffer. Dairy, meat and horticultural exports will be shielded by continuing global demand, aided by a weak New Zealand dollar. The country heads into the COVID-19 crisis with low debt-to-GDP, but debt taken out now will take a future toll. Opposition and minor political parties will get reduced media coverage, while the September general election may be delayed.


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