Japan's foreign policy caution will not last

Subject Recent developments in Japanese foreign policy. Significance This month has seen a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has visited Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the United Kingdom and Russia. Over the same period, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida visited China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam. Impacts Except for Washington, G7 governments have more interest in economic ties with Beijing than in Tokyo's concerns about territorial issues. Japan's willingness to engage Russia may draw the West's ire in due course. The process of relocating the Futenma airbase may drag on for another decade. TPP ratification will be slower than Abe wanted, but US politics is the greatest obstacle. A weakened South Korean administration could find itself pushed into a more hostile approach to Tokyo.

1957 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 546-547 ◽  

The Council of the Baghdad Pact held its annual meeting in Karachi from June 3 through 6, 1957. Representatives were present from the five member countries—Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and the United Kingdom—and the United States was represented by an observer delegation. The Council had been scheduled to meet months earlier, but Iraq originally refused to meet with the United Kingdom. At the opening session, presided over by Mr. Suhrawardy, Prime Minister of Pakistan, the Prime Minister of Iraq, Nuri es Said, was reported to have spoken forcefully about the dangers implicit in the problems of Israel, Algeria, Kashmir and Cyprus. Mr. Lloyd, Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom, was reported to have followed Mr. Nuri es Said's remarks with a speech in which he announced his government's offer of a contribution of £500,000 a year in cash and in kind for building up the minimum military infra-structure in member countries. The speeches of other delegates were reported to be noteworthy for their frank recognition of past weaknesses in the Baghdad Pact organization and the need to give it new effectiveness. In the course of the first session the United States formally accepted an invitation to join the Pact's Military Committee; and a United States military delegation headed by General Nathan F. Twining started participating in a separate concurrent meeting of the Military Committee. The United States thus became a member of the Pact's three main committees, but had still not become a formal member of the Pact.


Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.


Subject Anglo-French agreement to fund the next phase of their collaborative drone programme. Significance The accord announced at the Amiens summit on March 3 between French President Francois Hollande and UK Prime Minister David Cameron commits the two countries to investing 1.9 billion euros (2.1 billion dollars) in the production of Europe's most advanced combat drone. A sophisticated drone programme will be vital to both countries' industrial bases, especially as neither currently has plans to develop a next generation fighter aircraft to replace the Typhoon or Rafale. Impacts Closer industrial cooperation between Europe's most advanced defence powers will strengthen European capabilities. The project will underpin growing cooperation in the defence and security field between the United Kingdom and France. A possible Brexit could affect the relationship, and the United Kingdom might lose out on an increasing EU R&D budget devoted to defence.


Significance However, member states have the dominant foreign policy role in the EU. After Brexit, that will be France and Germany despite the United Kingdom insisting that it wants to maintain as close a relationship with the EU as possible. Impacts EU reformers will light on foreign policy as an area to drive forwarded integration. However, the EEAS lacks the competencies and institutional horsepower to be a force for integration. The strategic needs of the 27 post-Brexit EU members will be various, thus acting as a drag on integration. Smaller EU member states will see more advantage than larger ones in collectively pursuing foreign policy goals through Brussels. Larger member states will be unwilling to submit their national defence policies to greater EU authority.


Significance Prime Minister Boris Johnson talks of a “calibrated” China policy that combines toughness in particular areas with continued engagement in others. Impacts Migration of Hongkongers to the United Kingdom in large numbers would invigorate anti-Beijing activism. Chinese investments in UK nuclear power are unlikely to proceed as planned. Beijing’s extraterritorial attempts to suppress dissent in the United Kingdom will intensify. Universities and researchers should expect a push for government-mandated reviews of UK-China research and educational partnerships. Beijing may target particular firms or economic sectors to ‘punish’ London, but most bilateral trade will continue.


Significance The French-led maritime escort operation in the Gulf is running alongside a similar US-led effort, in which the United Kingdom is a partner, as well as smaller Japanese and South Korean operations. They are a response to increased Iranian threats to shipping during the course of 2019. Impacts Increased international monitoring in the Gulf may reduce smuggling, including Iranian sanctions-busting and arms shipments. Tehran could increase its focus on more deniable cyber-attacks, seeking vulnerable US-allied targets. Reinforced US assets will deploy across the Gulf in readiness to respond to any Iranian provocation through 2020. The economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak could reduce Gulf shipping volumes.


Subject EU direction post-Brexit. Significance Some Europhiles believe that the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU removes a veto-wielding disruptor, thereby enabling the EU to achieve deeper political and economic integration. However, opposition to integration will remain strong, with former UK policy allies in the EU now looking to occupy the ground left by the United Kingdom. Impacts German-French hopes to create European champion firms to bolster EU competition will strengthen following Brexit. The relative weight in the EU of countries opposed to using sanctions as a foreign policy tool, such as Italy and Hungary, will now grow. Future defence and security initiatives could be established outside EU structures in order to accommodate the United Kingdom.


1938 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 467-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert B. Stewart

The British Dominions prior to the World War had already achieved practically unrestricted freedom with respect to technical and commercial treaties. They had not attained any comparable freedom with respect to “political” treaties. They were, with rare exceptions, excluded from participation in the conclusion of such treaties but were, nevertheless, bound automatically by the obligations undertaken by the mother country. The Government of the United Kingdom, subject to its responsibility to the Imperial Parliament at Westminster, exercised sole authority in all matters relating to the conduct of foreign policy, the maintenance of peace, and the declaration of war. That authority, Prime Minister Asquith declared at the Imperial Conference of 1911, could not be shared with the Dominions. Yet at the close of the War the Dominions were given separate representation at the Paris Peace Conference.


Author(s):  
Ananieva Elena

Prime Minister T. May has put forward the concept of "Global Britain". After the United Kingdom had left the EU, the concept was formalized under the government of Boris Johnson in the document “Integrated Review of Security, Defense, Development and Foreign Policy "Global Britain in a Competitive Age"”. The article presents an analysis of its goals, methods and practical implementation. Britain, realizing itself as a "middle power", intends to build a system of alliances to counter China and Russia, the latter designated as an ”acute direct threat” to the UK.


Subject North Korean politics. Significance Choe Ryong-hae, once supreme leader Kim Jong-un's leading aide and his emissary to China, was unlisted on the funeral committee for Ri Ul-sol, a veteran general, and absent from the funeral itself on November 11. Seoul sources claim he is undergoing 're-education'. Separately, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported yesterday that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a former South Korean foreign minister, plans to visit Pyongyang this week. This would be Ban's first visit to North Korea. Impacts An upcoming Workers' Party Congress, the first since 1980, will bring further personnel changes, not least generational. Fence-mending with Seoul and Beijing is insubstantial and easily reversed. The economic situation is obscure, but does not seem precarious. Economic ties with China will remain unaffected by the vicissitudes of politics. A long-range rocket launch is more likely than a nuclear test, and would attract less opprobrium from Beijing.


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