Deportations signal new era of China-Taiwan tension

Significance The incident sparked a diplomatic row between China, which is thought to have pressured the Kenyan government to deport the Taiwanese nationals to the mainland, and Taiwan, which accused China of "extrajudicial abduction" and demanded their immediate release. Impacts The incident represents a display of China's sway in the international community with a pointed political message. Public distrust of China, already high in Taiwan, will rise further. China's handling of the incident will fuel a trend toward greater reluctance among Taiwanese to work in mainland China. The Democratic Progressive Party will use the incident to further its Sino-sceptic agenda in parliament, which it now controls. Cross-Strait cooperation on cross-border crime is likely to see modest progress following the incident.

Subject The outlook for Taiwan under the new administration. Significance Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was sworn in on May 20 as Taiwan's first female president and only its second leader not from the Kuomintang party, which has governed the island for all but eight years since 1945. In her inaugural address, Tsai outlined a five-point plan focused on reviving a stagnant economy, increasing social services for a rapidly aging population, and moving the export-driven economy away from a reliance on mainland China, Taiwan's largest market. Impacts Restructuring the economy will take time, and public pressure will build if global demand for exports does not rise quickly. Taiwan's bids to join regional trade blocs will meet resistance from China, which will press other countries to block it. Initiatives on judicial reform and 'truth and reconciliation' that discredit the Kuomintang will make domestic politics more acrimonious.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lianlian Liu

Purpose The issue of concurrent jurisdiction over cross-border crimes has become common in a globalizing world, while the rigid compliance with territoriality and active personality jurisdiction has created a legal vacuum for cross-border crimes in many situations. The jurisdiction dispute between mainland China and Taiwan over cross-border telecom fraud crimes is a good example. In recent years, the Ministry of Public Security of the People’s Republic of China cracked down a series of cross-border telecom fraud crimes against mainland residents and extradited suspects to mainland China. Given a certain proportion of Taiwan residents in criminal gangs, the Taiwan side raised jurisdiction objections, arguing that mainland China had no right to exercise jurisdiction over Taiwanese criminals. The essence of the jurisdiction dispute between two sides is the concurrence of Taiwan’s right to exercise active personality jurisdiction and the mainland’s right to exercise passive personality jurisdiction. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the connotation of different jurisdiction principles (namely, territorial, active personality, protective and passive personality jurisdiction) and reinterpret their prioritization of applicability from a jurisprudential perspective, and thus, enhance the theoretical basis for resolving the issue of concurrent jurisdiction over cross-border crimes. Design/methodology/approach By reviewing the historical trajectory of major jurisdiction principles since the 1920s, and studying the specificities of the case in this context, this paper argues that territorial jurisdiction and active personality jurisdiction have presumed priority but not an absolute priority for resolving the issue of concurrent jurisdiction. The applicability of protective and passive personality jurisdiction could precede the former provided the jurisdictions of territoriality or active personality are inadequate, incompetent or lack of motivation to combat crimes, which harm other jurisdictions. Findings The developmental trajectory and contemporary connotation of major jurisdiction principles suggests that the legitimacy of the mainland’s exercise of passive personality jurisdiction over Taiwan criminal suspects lies in the urgent need to recover mainland victims’ significant property loss, the incompetence of Taiwan in detecting and prosecuting telecom fraud crimes committed by Taiwanese residents and targeting mainland victims and that the mainland has guaranteed the Taiwan side’s right to be timely informed and fully participate in its exercise of criminal jurisdiction over crimes involving Taiwan suspects. Originality/value Current literature on jurisdiction doctrines mainly uses a historical or descriptive approach to reveal the attitudes of different countries toward jurisdiction principles, which helps little in resolving the issue of concurrent jurisdiction over cross-border crimes in an era of globalization. This paper uses an interpretative approach, reinterprets the contemporary connotation of different jurisdiction principles and redefines the criteria for determining their prioritization in the context of the specificities of a case. It is expected to update the academic literature for resolving concurrent jurisdiction, fill the legal vacuum for combating cross-border crimes created by rigid compliance with territorial jurisdiction, and meanwhile relieve concerns about abuse of extraterritorial jurisdiction as it provides concrete standards for weighting the applicability of jurisdiction principles.


Significance Eric Chu, the party chairman, was nominated to replace Hung Hsiu-chu, whose candidacy failed to rally support within the party. He will run against Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. Impacts Cross-Strait relations will once again play the central role in the 2016 presidential and legislative elections. The Kuomintang's diplomatic stance will shift toward the DPP's in an attempt to assuage concerns over cross-Strait policy. Although Tsai has promised not to undo trade agreements with China, she is unlikely to press ahead with new ones. China will remain largely silent on the Taiwanese elections, to avoid reinforcing anti-China sentiment that is widespread in Taiwan.


Subject Relations between sub-national governments in Taiwan and China. Significance China is attempting to bypass Taiwan’s central government -- with which it has severed formal ties -- and forge better relations with major municipalities and locally elected leaders. These efforts have found greater success since recent local elections that dealt major setbacks to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Impacts Politicians from both parties will be emboldened to turn to Chinese investment to stimulate local economies. Han Kuo-yu, newly elected mayor of Kaohsiung city, could lead the main opposition party’s comeback at the national level. Relations with China are likely to play a decisive role once again in Taiwan’s 2020 national elections.


Significance Incumbent President Peter Mutharika of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) narrowly won re-election, ahead of the main opposition candidates, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and former Vice-President Saulos Chilima of the United Transformation Movement (UTM). The elections were marred by accusations of rigging, and both Chakwera and Chilima have launched court cases to overturn the result amid sizable post-poll protests. Impacts The opposition has ruled out power-sharing, but this may re-emerge as a compromise option should legal challenges fail. Opposition and civil society groups will increase calls for an amendment to the electoral system, with likely increased public backing. International donors will maintain pressure on the government over persistent budget overruns and elite-level corruption.


Subject Pressured Malawian president Significance Recurring corruption crises over the past year have seen President Peter Mutharika and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s popularity decline. Despite such travails, the DPP has recently attempted to consolidate its hold on parliament by co-opting members of the opposition People’s Party (PP). This comes soon after rebel PP members controversially supported DPP efforts to defeat an electoral reform bill that would have weakened Mutharika’s 2019 re-election hopes. Impacts The opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) will receive intensified overtures from the main parties ahead of the 2019 poll. Despite the recent parliamentary setbacks, a civil society push for electoral reform is unlikely to subside. Failure properly to combat a cholera outbreak in the Central and Northern regions would put further pressure on the government.


Subject Taiwan's 'diplomatic contest' with China. Significance Panama announced on June 12 that it was switching diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China, reducing the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic partners to 20. Panama is the second country to sever relations with Taipei since Tsai Ing-wen of the China-sceptic Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became Taiwanese president in May last year. In late December, the small African island state of Sao Tome and Principe also switched recognition. Impacts Attitudes toward China in Taiwan will harden, but economic necessity will require Taipei to seek some common ground. As the next election approaches in 2020, the government will feel more pressure to be pragmatic towards China. China will be disinclined to cooperate, hoping that the China-friendly opposition will oust the current China-sceptic government.


Subject Taiwan's defence policy. Significance Taiwan's new president, Tsai Ing-wen, has signalled a major shift in national defence policy. She aims to boost the overall defence budget to 3% of GDP (from 2% currently) and strengthen the domestic arms industry. Tsai hails from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which traditionally favours permanent de jure independence from mainland China. Impacts Tsai will tread carefully on sensitive sovereignty issues, trying to avoid provoking China even while raising defence spending. Chinese pressure will constrain Taiwan's ability to secure investment and cooperation on defence projects (except from the United States). Washington will press Taiwan for higher defence budgets and offer access to advanced technologies and weapons. The military balance in the Taiwan Strait will shift further in China's favour. Taiwan will find more support in Washington and Tokyo for inclusion in regional defence architecture.


Subject Electoral politics in Taiwan. Significance At the party congress of the ruling Kuomintang on June 19, Hung Hsiu-chu, deputy speaker of the Legislative Yuan, was formally recommended to represent the party in the presidential election on January 16, 2016. Hung will face Tsai Ing-wen, the chairwoman and presidential nominee of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2012. Barring a strong showing by an independent candidate, Taiwan will elect its first female president in 2016. Impacts Cross-strait agreements will stall during the election season and are unlikely to progress quickly under a DPP administration. Taiwan-US relations will improve as a result of Washington's growing frustration with Beijing. Unlike last time, Tsai will not face the perception that Washington favours the Kuomintang. A Tsai presidency would mean less business-friendly economic policies and moves toward decommissioning Taiwan's nuclear power plants. However, the Kuomintang is likely to retain control of the legislature, which would curtail Tsai's power considerably.


Subject Public sector pension reform in Taiwan. Significance Sweeping public service pension reforms took effect this month after years of contentious debate and failed attempts by successive governments. The reforms affect civil servants, teachers and military personnel. Public sector pension liabilities over the next three decades had risen to 18 trillion Taiwan dollars (590 billion US dollars). Government projections predicted bankruptcy for the military pension fund by 2020, the teachers’ pension fund by 2030 and the civil servant pension fund by 2031. The reforms will affect about 333,000 people. Impacts The reform will remain in the spotlight as parties campaign for local elections in November, probably to Tsai's benefit. Achieving this reform will help Tsai brand her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as the 'party of the future'. Rapid demographic ageing in the decades ahead will place other strains on fiscal resources.


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