Ciolos will aim to tackle Romania's developmental lag

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Tax Collection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Party Government ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
The Government

Significance The non-party government of former EU Commissioner Dacian Ciolos took office on November 17 after the Ponta government stood down. Much of the previous administration's budget projections have been carried over, but the new draft also raises spending on investment, education and health, widening the projected deficit to 2.95% of 2016 GDP from 1.8% in 2015. Impacts PSD could insist on the budget including a rise in the minimum wage, but the government wants to assess its impact first. Parliamentary parties back the government publicly, but are manoeuvring for advantage with an eye to elections in late 2016. Key economic policies include infrastructure investment, improved administrative standards and tax collection, and absorption of EU funds.

Taiwan infrastructure plan risks corruption and waste

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Regional Competitiveness ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Plan ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Government

Subject The Taiwanese government's infrastructure investment plan. Significance The legislature on July 5 passed the eight-year 840-billion-Taiwan-dollar (27.5-billion-US-dollar) infrastructure bill that is the centrepiece of President Tsai Ing-wen's economic policies. Fears of corruption and wasteful spending, and accusations of partisan patronage in relation to the plan give the opposition many opportunities to attack the government and undermine its already-low public support. Impacts Infrastructure spending will boost Taiwan's regional competitiveness, which has declined relative to other Asian economies. Green energy and digital infrastructure will create high-paying jobs for the highly skilled workforce, a major goal of recent governments. The flood of government spending will increase opportunities for corruption among officials and private contractors. Land seizures will lead to public anger and boost support for the opposition.

Dominican Republic tourism begins fragile recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Programme

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

Rural protests could quickly snowball in Colombia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous People ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Tens of thousands of farmers and indigenous people have taken part in demonstrations since May 30 in protest at the government's economic policies. At least three people are reported to have been killed and some 200 injured in clashes with police. The protesters claim that promises made following similar protests in 2013 have not been honoured and that the government's free trade policies harm Colombian workers. Impacts While protests are unlikely to threaten the government or the peace process, they could complicate and draw out talks. In guerrilla-controlled areas, the government will strive to show it is capable of providing order and prosperity. Colombian protests will have no direct impact on TPP talks but may be an indicator of trouble ahead in countries that are party to the deal.

Vietnam eyes PPPs to plug infrastructure gap

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Private Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Infrastructural Development ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
New Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Asean Economic Community

Subject The emerging infrastructure investment framework in Vietnam. Significance Vietnamese infrastructure lags some regional competitors; Hanoi estimates that investing 500 billion dollars could resolve this, but needs 300 billion of this to come from public-private partnerships (PPP). Following problems with Vietnam's PPP regulatory framework, a new framework was introduced in April and a new public investment law in January, among other measures seeking to attract private capital into national infrastructure. Such measures are timely: the ASEAN Economic Community is coming in late 2015, while Vietnam signed a free trade deal on May 29 with the Eurasian Economic Union; capitalising on both requires Vietnamese infrastructural development. Impacts The government may need to delay some projects while private capital comes online. As government and industry adapt to the new infrastructure investment framework, updates to planning instructions may be needed. A concerted anti-corruption campaign would support efficiency drives in infrastructural development, but progress will be slow.

Bolivia's business elites have shifted to Morales

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Groups ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Business Elites ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Collaborative Working ◽  
The Government

Subject Government-business relations. Significance President Evo Morales’s government has established a collaborative working relationship with the country’s most powerful business elites that belies its leftist rhetoric. This is based on an understanding that while government offers large corporate interests favourable economic conditions, business groups will refrain from conspiring against the government in the political sphere. Thus, the government has managed to minimise the sort of pro-regional tensions that characterised its first term in office (2006-10), driving a wedge between economic and political elites. Impacts The economic policies pursued by the Morales administration will continue to prove, broadly, good for business. Smaller-scale businesses have been less beneficially treated, but lack political lobbying power. Avoidance of strife with the more powerful business groups will continue to help underpin political stability.

Egyptian wage rises will increase economic disparities

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Informal Economy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Employees ◽  
The Government ◽  
Poverty Levels

Subject Planned pay increases in Egypt. Significance President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi in late March announced rises to the minimum wage, pensions and bonuses, which will be effective from July. This is intended to offset the inflationary effects of the 2016 currency devaluation, as well as austerity measures undertaken by the government in compliance with the terms of a 12-billion-dollar IMF loan. The wage reforms, however, target formal and public-sector employees and offer no benefit to more than 50% of the workforce employed in the informal economy. At the same time, the ambitious fiscal reform programme that Cairo has pursued over the past three years has increased poverty levels. Impacts Raising the minimum wage will in turn reduce spending on social protection programmes. Wage reforms will stimulate consumer spending and boost economic growth. The rising minimum wage will increase operating costs for small firms, which may evade paying the legal minimum through informal employment. Despite being intended to counter price rises, the changes risk fuelling cost-push inflation. Planned public sector pay rises risk increasing the budget deficit.

Mexico tourism plan rides on success of Maya Train

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Quintana Roo ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Healthy Growth ◽  
Tourism Potential

Significance The news follows years of healthy growth in the sector and comes as the government launches a new tourism plan. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) announced the National Tourism Strategy 2019-24 in Chetumal on February 24, highlighting the government’s intention to use the sector as a vehicle for regional development, job creation, social inclusion and equality. Within this framework, the construction of a ‘Maya Train’ in the relatively poor south of the country will be the sector’s priority. Impacts The lack of a formal environmental impact assessment for the Maya Train puts the environment, and its long-term tourism potential, at risk. Business’s mistrust of AMLO, and the potential downgrading of Mexico’s sovereign ratings, threaten infrastructure investment hopes. SECTUR’s move to Quintana Roo feeds into the government’s decentralisation rhetoric but will not necessarily help boost sectoral growth. Plans to incentivise domestic travel by the poor may increase tourism numbers and quality of life but will bring few economic benefits.

South Africa’s PIC faces major overhaul

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Pension Fund ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Government Employees ◽  
Major Overhaul ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Economic ◽  
Black Economic Empowerment ◽  
The Government

Significance The PIC oversees approximately 142 billion dollars, mostly on behalf of the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF). While the GEPF’s assets are still comfortably greater than its liabilities, its surplus has been falling in recent years, with several questionable investments coming to light. Impacts Inquiry revelations could weaken support for government economic policies, such as prescribed assets, from traditional allies. The GEPF’s push to invest more funds overseas could have major implications for how much money the PIC manages and its future investments. The Commission's major long-term impacts could include a serious rethink of the ANC's black economic empowerment (BEE) economic policies.

Candidates promise continuity, not change in Peru

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Media ◽  
Party System ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Main Thrust ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Executives ◽  
Voter Preferences ◽  
The Government

Significance The leading candidates for the presidential contest set out their agendas at the annual meeting of business executives (CADE) on December 3-4. The campaign, aggressive and personalised, had so far lacked policy substance. With each candidate supporting the continuance of business-friendly economic policies and backing measures to clamp down on public insecurity and corruption, they were at pains to distinguish themselves one from another. The dispersion of parties and candidates still makes a second round likely. Impacts With the political focus increasingly on the election, support for the government may recover slightly over the next six months. The main thrust of campaigning will remain highly personalised. The lack of any strong party system means that the mass media will play a decisive role in shaping voter preferences. The left, lacking funding and organisation, is unlikely to flourish.

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