Contentious mining reform could boost Panama's economy

Subject The outlook for mining reform. Significance In June, the government of Panama announced the completion of the environmental impact assessment for the Cerro Quema gold mining project. This means that it may go ahead by the end of the year, despite uncertainty surrounding legislation in the mining sector and ongoing discussions regarding a number of potential framework reforms. Impacts New legislation could lead to renewed protests, particularly in areas with major deposits. Greater certainty in the mining sector could encourage renewed foreign investment. Mining could help diversify Panama's economy and stimulate economic growth over the medium term.

Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.


Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.


Subject Outlook for the mining sector. Significance Encouraged by this year’s price increases for most of Peru’s mineral exports, the government is seeking to push ahead with plans to attract much-needed foreign investment into the mining industry. This will involve politically contentious moves to deregulate some of the cumbersome procedures that affect investors. Impacts Next year’s growth target of 4% is probably over-optimistic. Social and environmental protests will add to the costs of mining investment in Peru. Once opposition has emerged to projects, it will prove difficult to reverse. Climate change will accentuate problems of water shortage for mining operations.


Subject The mining outlook in Ecuador. Significance The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government of President Rafael Correa to search for new sources of public revenue and foreign investment. The mining sector, which remains underdeveloped, has the potential to make significant contributions on both of these fronts. Reflecting the growing importance of the sector, the government has a created a Mining Ministry and appointed a mining minister. While numerous challenges continue to face the industry, it has shown signs of increased activity in the opening six months of the year. Impacts Opponents of mining development will attempt to impede medium and large-scale projects, through the courts and on the streets. Changes to water laws and policies will face opposition due to fears they may facilitate mine development and threaten water supplies. While investment in the mining sector will boost economic activity, the economy will expand more slowly than expected in 2015.


Significance The government is prioritising expansion of the mining sector, including attracting foreign investment, after many years of neglect. However, the military's increasing dominance of parts of the economy, including the mining sector, creates risks, especially for foreign investors. Impacts The Egyptian bureaucracy and lack of specialist service providers will create obstacles for private sector investors. There is no immediate prospect of a legal framework to govern business relations between the military and international mining companies. Investors will not face the same credit risk in the mining sector as operators in the petroleum sector face.


Significance This chokes off an unexpectedly strong economic recovery in the first half of 2021. Meanwhile, unemployment has hit a record high at 35%, or 47% according to the expanded definition which includes people who have given up looking for work. Impacts Without higher economic growth, the unemployment rate will not substantially improve. The combination of low growth and high unemployment heightens the chance of further violent unrest. The government will have difficulty sticking with debt reduction plans without further dampening growth. Planned reforms in the energy sector could ease some of the country’s electricity woes in the medium term.


Subject The controversial plan for a ship canal bypassing the Bosphorus. Significance The ruling party's proposal to build a new canal for shipping has attracted widespread criticism, most pointedly that it is the president’s ‘vanity project’ and is neither necessary nor financially viable. An environmental impact assessment will need to be prepared and approved before construction can start. Impacts If commercial lenders cannot be found, the government may use Turkey’s new sovereign wealth fund. Equity or income from leading state companies might have to be used as collateral to build the canal. Developers would enjoy treasury revenue guarantees, despite the face that public finances are already under strain.


Significance Preliminary results suggest that President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has won re-election with 91% of the vote. Western media and diplomats estimate turnout hovered around 20%, though Egyptian site Youm7 reported yesterday that 23 million of 59 million eligible voters cast their ballot, bringing turnout to 39%. After the formality of his re-election for a second term is completed, Sisi is looking to his cabinet to set the conditions for a surge in economic growth over the next four years. Impacts Further cuts to subsidies are in the pipeline; inflation and interest rates remain high, although they have passed their peaks. Foreign exchange reserves are at record levels, but increased borrowing made a major contribution, and heavy debt repayments are now due. The government seeks more foreign investment in projects and equities to replace external borrowing as the main source of capital inflows.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Xiangbai He

Abstract There are two general pathways towards climate change litigation in China: tort-based litigation to hold carbon emitters accountable in civil law, and administrative litigation against the government to demand better climate regulation. While the first pathway is gaining momentum among Chinese scholars, this article argues that legal barriers to applying tort-based rules to climate change should be fairly acknowledged. The article argues that China's legal framework for environmental impact assessment (EIA) provides more openness and flexibility for the resolution of climate change disputes. Therefore, EIA-based climate lawsuits, which challenge environmental authorities for not adequately taking climate change factors into account in decision-making processes, encounter relatively fewer legal barriers, require less radical legal or institutional reform, and have greater potential to maintain existing legal orders. The regulatory effects produced by EIA-based litigation suggest that the scholarship on climate change litigation in China should take such litigation seriously because it could influence both governments and emitters in undertaking more proactive efforts. This China-based study, with a special focus on judicial practice in the largest developing country, will shine a light on China's contribution to transnational climate litigation.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


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