Russia will prioritise economic stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister

Significance The event typically serves as a barometer of economic confidence in Russia. Last year, few significant deals were announced, and foreign delegates were fewer in number than usual. This year, the message was that the Kremlin will focus on ensuring economic stability in a time of geopolitical turbulence rather than wide-ranging reforms. Impacts Kremlin will continue to hope and gamble on a return to high oil prices. Russia will retaliate against the continuation of EU sanctions decided on June 22 with an agriculture import ban. Speculation will grow over former finance minister Alexei Kudrin's possible return to politics as prime minister.

Algeria aims to put its finances on a sustainable path

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Investment Law ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Significance The prime minister and finance minister, Aymane Benabderrahmane, has loaded some substantive policy reforms into the 2022 budget law, including a provision for reform of the subsidy system, revisions to the investment law and changes to income tax. Impacts There is a high risk that within the next five years there will be a slump in oil and gas prices. Algeria’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons makes it particularly vulnerable once momentum builds up for global decarbonisation. Subsidy reform will entail price increases, even if they are gradually applied.

Budget gains may mask Serbia's slow structural reform

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Just In Time ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
To Come ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance The cabinet enters office just in time to host a fresh visit from the IMF, expected later this month. Despite another landslide victory in parliamentary elections on April 24, Prime Minister and Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) leader Aleksandar Vucic has been in no rush to form his next government. With parliament dissolved in early March, this has been a wasted year for reforms, economic or other. The next government must start working effectively if it is to make up for this, even partly. Impacts Dusan Vujovic, confirmed as finance minister, will remain the focal point for implementing the SBA. A new law on financing local government is likely to be adopted in late August or early September. This will transfer a portion of revenues from income tax from local authorities to the central government. The new government will need to come up with a less ambitious plan for public sector redundancies in 2016 and 2017.

Sonangol reform will extend Angola leader's power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Business Experience ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Offshore Oil

Significance Fund officials praised the government's efforts to rein in spending in response to low oil prices but said further steps were needed to ensure economic stability and improve transparency in public finances. The restructuring of state oil firm Sonangol, announced in April, will be critical for this process. Impacts Sonangol's reforms will shape business cross-regionally, given its multi-sector interests and status as one of Africa's largest companies. If certain of the firm's operations are streamlined, it could affect the livelihoods of some of its approximately 10,000 employees. The 16-billion-dollar Kaombo offshore oil project, led by Total, will prove fundamental for sustaining Angola's future oil output. Angola's status as the region's largest oil producer will persist as long as Nigerian output is reduced by Niger delta militant attacks. Isabel dos Santos's extensive business experience will bolster the investor credibility of the oil sector reforms.

Confrontation with Iraq’s militias may come to a head

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Double Hit ◽  
Will Force

Significance This followed five rocket attacks on the US-led coalition in the last two weeks, which killed two US and one UK citizen. It also came two days after Kurdish President Barham Salih named Adnan al-Zurfi, a US-linked Shia nationalist politician, as the new prime minister-designate. Impacts Washington may hold back its response to attacks in order to further Zurfi’s ratification. A massive double hit from low oil prices and COVID-19 will force Iraq to seek more international aid. A Zurfi government could improve Iraq’s chances of gaining Western and Gulf financial assistance.

Malaysia will be main test for Singapore’s leaders

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War

Subject Singapore's political challenges. Significance The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) has begun what will be a lengthy leadership handover from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to Heng Swee Keat, currently finance minister and the PAP’s first assistant secretary-general. Speculation is mounting that Lee could bring forward the general election due by January 2021. In recent months, Singapore’s relations with Malaysia have soured. Impacts Turbulent relations with Malaysia will have no impact on the PAP’s leadership handover. Malaysia-Singapore ministerial ties will mitigate the effects of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s erratic foreign policy. Judicial verdicts against legislators from the opposition Workers’ Party (WP) could worsen the WP’s already weak position in parliament. A prolonged US-China trade war would lead to a further decline in exports to China from Singapore.

Kazakhstan poll will be about stability not succession

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Assembly

Significance The vote comes amid an unprecedented economic downturn caused by a combination of factors: low oil prices, recession in Russia and slowdown in China. President Nursultan Nazarbayev called early elections in January in a bid to maintain social stability until oil prices stabilise or increase. His personal credibility is less at risk than that of government members directly in charge of the economy, and one way of deflecting criticism would be to get the new parliament to dismiss Prime Minister Karim Massimov. Impacts The Majilis will play a marginal role in decision-making, and despite its apparent dominance, Nur Otan will have little say. The few remaining opposition groups will be subjected to harassment and prosecution to prevent them mobilising public support. Nur Otan will win local assembly elections taking place simultaneously.

New Ethiopian cabinet gears up for next economic plan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Middle Income Country ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Enterprises

Subject Ethiopia's new government line-up. Significance Following his re-election for a five-year term in early October, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced a cabinet reshuffle. The changes come amid final preparations for the second phase of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), an ambitious development strategy that seeks to turn Ethiopia into a middle-income country by 2025. Impacts Ethiopia is likely to issue a new euro-bond to mobilise additional funds for GTP II. Sovereign debt levels are manageable, but off-budget loans to state enterprises may cause future distress. Low oil prices are beneficial for managing balance-of-payments and foreign-exchange strains.

Moroccans face more political and economic stagnation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Working Conditions ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Better Than

Significance Although the economy is still faring better than others in North Africa, public discontent has increased. Significant segments of the population, especially in rural areas, are economically marginalised and development favours the upper middle class. Protestors blame politicians for democratic stalling, economic hardship and unequal development; the authorities attempt to address these demands with superficial reforms mostly aimed at specific economic sectors. Impacts A consumer boycott aimed at figures close to the Palace, such as Agriculture Minister Aziz Akhannouch, could intensify. Endemic economic and political instability may deter foreign investment in 2018-19. The new finance minister will seek to reduce corruption and improve working conditions, with mixed success. Former Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane is unlikely to weaken his party by standing against the current premier.

Malaysia will struggle to foster economic growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Finance Minister

Subject Malaysia's 2019 budget. Significance Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng’s 314.5-billion-ringgit (75-billion-dollar) budget for 2019, tabled earlier this month, will likely be approved in parliament before year-end. The first budget under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad anticipates a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP. Shortly after coming to power this May, Mahathir said he would give way to Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition partner Anwar Ibrahim within two years. Impacts The PH’s fiscal management will bolster confidence among foreign investors and credit ratings agencies. The lack of budget handouts to rural Malay constituencies could weaken political support for the PH in the short term. Government borrowing will likely become more expensive through 2019. The digital economy tax introduced in the budget will come into effect in 2020. Corruption investigations into missing revenues could result in further legal charges against members of the former government.

Election could erode New Zealand budget repair

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
National Party ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
National Rule ◽  
Productivity Commission ◽  
Commission Report ◽  
Consecutive Term

Significance Increased economic optimism will be welcomed by Prime Minister Bill English, who is hoping that his National Party will win a fourth consecutive term in government this September. Finance Minister Steven Joyce presented a confident budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year in May that focused principally on low-to-middle-income taxpayers, laying out the government’s economic agenda. Impacts A tight labour market will push up wages and paint a positive picture of National rule for the electorate. High levels of household debt could undercut consumer confidence once monetary policy begins to tighten. No shifts in climate policy are anticipated until a June 2018 Productivity Commission report is released.

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