ASEAN politicised anti-graft efforts may mar business

Subject The outlook for anti-corruption frameworks in South-east Asia and ASEAN. Significance Over the last two decades, national anti-corruption commissions in the ASEAN-core countries -- Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines -- have become more powerful and capable of coordinating high-profile anti-corruption campaigns against those holding public office. However, such efforts have in some cases become intensely politicised, and some national commissions have struggled to remain autonomous. This will affect governance and business, especially with ASEAN integrating and the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) coming in late 2015. Impacts With elections delayed to late 2016, further corruption probes of Thai opposition figures are likely. Indonesia's anti-corruption commission faces a battle to protect its autonomy, and may see its capacity hindered. The Philippines' presidential transition in mid-2016 will determine the ongoing success of the current anti-corruption drive. Malaysia's anti-corruption commission may gain institutional strength through the '1MDB' investigation. Deepening ASEAN economic integration could increase cross-border and domestic opportunities for political corruption.

Subject Gender inequality, business and economic growth as ASEAN integrates economically. Significance South-east Asian economic ministers agreed at a summit earlier this month in Manila to work towards a more inclusive role for women in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Impacts Institutional changes will be needed for women to realise their full economic potential. Small and medium-sized businesses owned by women will struggle to access financing. Reform of parental leave and childcare would help retain vital skills in the workplace.


Significance The ASEAN Summits will attempt to maintain momentum for greater integration, particularly on the new 2025 ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) blueprint. The EAS will focus on regional tensions on the Korean peninsula and in the South China Sea, and see the first visit of a serving US president to Laos. Impacts Russia will strengthen ties with South-east Asia and ASEAN, but avoid entanglement in maritime disputes. ASEAN could lose international traction in 2017: Duterte is still developing foreign policy experience. Regional economic issues will be considered outside South-east Asia this year also in Peru at the November APEC summit.


Subject Outlook for ASEAN's agenda in 2017. Significance The Philippines begins operating as ASEAN's chair for 2017 in January, the annual position having rotated to Manila, which will preside over ASEAN's 50th year. Political changes in South-east Asia, including Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte's inauguration back in June, call into question ASEAN's future direction on issues including territorial disputes between China and several South-east Asian nations in the South China Sea. Impacts The terrorist threat in South-east Asia and the southern Philippines particularly could grow. AEC integration could help Duterte politically, as his domestic and foreign affairs interests converge in the economic sector. The current Myanmar Rohingya Muslims controversy may spread into ASEAN next year.


Subject Outlook for the ASEAN chairmanship in 2018. Significance Singapore has started chairing ASEAN for 2018 after the Philippines rotated the chair as planned at November's meetings. Manila’s 2017 chairmanship was unsteady at times, partly because Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte changed his foreign secretary mid-year. ASEAN’s slogan for 2018 is “Resilient and Innovative”. Impacts Singapore will seek to further implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community. Counterterrorism will see more ASEAN cooperation, partly given southern Philippine concerns about Islamic State. Singapore will push for greater ASEAN technological connectivity and cybercrime preparedness. While negotiating the RCEP, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam will also eye agreeing an eleven-state Trans-Pacific Partnership.


Subject Electronics and ICT investment outlook in ASEAN states. Significance South-east Asia is removing foreign investment barriers in most electronics industries, attempting to capitalise on closer economic ties with China and digitalisation of services. Changes in supply chains are drawing investment to cheaper production bases, including Vietnam and the Philippines, forcing established manufacturers Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand to compete with China for high-end markets. This trend will intensify ahead of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) free trade area, which will be implemented in late 2015. Impacts Investment markets will be liberalised under the ASEAN Economic Community. Trade liberalisation will require expanded South-east Asian supply chains, and boost electronics industry links with China. ASEAN governments will address skills gaps to provide electronics workers as the industry grows.


Subject Maritime piracy in South-east Asia. Significance Shippers are likely to expand seaborne trade from 2016 following the initiation of the ASEAN Economic Community free trade area at the end of last year, which envisions more integrated and liberalised shipping. However, shippers are threatened by growing regional piracy on the high seas and maritime robbery in territorial waters. Impacts Shipping firms will need to make provision for crew security and training, and may require larger insurance subscriptions. Improved intra-ASEAN intelligence-sharing and judicial cooperation would help to counter piracy. Land-based measures such as building forensic capacity and public education (as Malaysia and others are doing) would be helpful.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Degelsegger-Márquez ◽  
Svend Otto Remøe ◽  
Rudie Trienes

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss the prospects of a Southeast Asian knowledge economy in light of regional integration processes and the participation of Southeast Asia in global innovation networks. Design/methodology/approach The evidence base is a combination of quantitative data on R&D investments, patent applications and publications, with qualitative data from 40 semi-structured expert interviews conducted with innovation experts, research managers and policymakers in six ASEAN Member States. Findings Despite economic growth and increases in R&D inputs and outputs in individual ASEAN Member States, innovation policy at regional ASEAN level remains weak. In addition, the economic integration of the ASEAN Economic Community is progressing slowly. In this environment, evidence is presented for a certain level of regional integration when it comes to the exploitation of knowledge produced within and outside of ASEAN. While a regional market for knowledge exploitation is conceivable, this is not accompanied by the regional integration of knowledge production. Practical implications The main practical implication of this argument is the need for ASEAN policymakers to appreciate the disconnection between regional knowledge production and exploitation. This paper offers conceptual tools to engage in ASEAN-level policy discussions on this issue that can help facilitate the best possible regional outcome. Originality/value Despite several studies on the ASEAN Economic Community process, there has been no contribution so far that combines a discussion of the economic integration process with a look at the regional knowledge economy and innovation systems. This perspective does not only contribute to innovation systems literature, but also entails important policy lessons.


Subject Investment needs in ASEAN's textiles and garments sector. Significance Textiles and garments will be a benchmark for the regional integration of manufacturing as ASEAN edges towards the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) single market in late 2015. However, developing cross-border partnerships in garments production is constrained due to high costs and inadequate supply chains, deterring some investors looking to relocate low-end assembly operations from China. Impacts Integrating supply chains would reduce costs and over-reliance on imports, but infrastructure and transport limits will act as hurdles. Producers will invest in additional capacity and upgrading of operations to meet buyer demands. Emerging trade alliances could offer a competitive lifeline if producing countries commit to tariff reforms. Pressure to reform intra-ASEAN labour mobility regulations may grow.


Significance In recent months, the region has received jabs manufactured in China, India and Russia -- the key practitioners of ‘vaccine diplomacy’ -- as well as shots made in the West. Meanwhile, some South-east Asian governments have assumed emergency powers to deal with the pandemic. Impacts Cancellation of forums such as the Shangri-La Dialogue, which was due to take place in June, will set back regional security cooperation. Singapore’s ban on shipping crews that have travelled to India will significantly slow trade transit through the Strait of Malacca. ASEAN will try to spur post-pandemic economic recovery in the region through the ASEAN Economic Community.


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