Local buy-in divides East Africa anti-terror efforts

Significance Kenya has experienced far more militant violence than neighbouring Ethiopia or Uganda, although the militant group has targeted all three countries, and all three engage in military operations in Somalia against it. However, each has different security structures and approaches to countering terrorism and insurgency. Impacts Blowback from the Kenyan intervention damages prospects for large-scale infrastructure projects across the north. However, government and donor appetite on these projects will persist. The more authoritarian political systems in Uganda and Ethiopia give governments a stronger hand in security operations compared to Kenya.

Subject Regional infrastructure ambitions. Significance Plans for large-scale regional infrastructure projects have become vehicles for economic cooperation in East Africa over the past several years. However, behind the rhetoric of regional solidarity, such ventures have become a critical arena for power rivalries to play out. Impacts Infrastructure plans are exacerbating local conflicts in northern Kenya and driving new dynamics. Land grabbing is a trend across areas where new infrastructure is meant to be, tying political and business elites to original plans. Despite its ambitions to reduce reliance on Khartoum, South Sudan is not going to be a secure infrastructure partner for some time.


Significance The win secures Conde a second five-year term. However, opposition parties allege widespread fraud. They refuse to recognise the result and threaten large-scale protests. Impacts New Ebola cases will set back the country's eradication timeline, possibly pushing the crisis into a third year. Mining firms could cite this as a reason further to delay infrastructure projects while they await better commodity prices. News that Ebola persists in semen for up to nine months means men could be carriers even after they are proclaimed cured. The state is likely to increase its use of traditional healers to treat Ebola -- to help overcome primary healthcare deficits.


Significance The announcement comes as neighbouring Ethiopia moves toward completing a rail link with Djibouti to increase access to the Red Sea port. Ethiopia's rail expansion is part of a rail building spree across East Africa -- a region attempting to improve economic linkages. Impacts Rwanda's renewed relationship with Tanzania will strengthen as economic linkages grow. The trucking industry may attempt to disrupt economic activity if the new railways erode their business. Ethiopia's economic ties with Djibouti will grow as the Red Sea port becomes more accessible. Kenya may need to rethink other large-scale development projects following Ugandan and Rwandan preferences for Tanzanian options.


Significance They face trial for “complicity in acts of terrorism, insurrection, rebellion and the propagation of false information”. Anglophone Cameroonians in the Northwest and Southwest regions have been staging strikes and protests against discrimination as a linguistic minority in the past months. This prompted a government shutdown of the internet in January, which was restored in April. Although large-scale protests have stopped, many schools remain closed, the larger cities in the region continue weekly ‘ghost town’ strikes and several high-profile protesters are still under arrest. Impacts Pre-election government spending will likely increase, specifically targeted at the Northwest and Southwest regions. Attacks in the north by Boko Haram will persist and pose a growing threat to Lake Chad counterterrorism efforts. Diplomatic tensions could grow between Cameroon and Nigeria over the resettlement of refugees.


2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Earnest

Purpose – Rehabilitation and reconstruction of social and economic infrastructure in a post-conflict environment are complex, long-debated issues in development cooperation. In addition to war creating large-scale human suffering, generating refugees, displacing populations, engendering psychological distress, obliterating infrastructure and transforming the economy, in post-conflict situations, deepening chaos and disorder can be found at the highest social, economic and political levels; serious developmental challenges remain insufficiently addressed. Repairing war-damaged infrastructure in order to reactivate the local economy is a challenge for all post-conflict countries. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The study was designed to examine planning and execution of post-conflict reconstruction (PCR). The use of a mixed-method research approach combining both quantitative and qualitative data collection was used to explore planning and implementation of PCR infrastructure projects in Kosovo. The data collection in the field was undertaken for a period of eight weeks, from July to September 2008. A total of 420 respondents were involved in the study process, as follows: key informants (four), pilot test (12), semi-structured interviews (36), project manager/engineers survey (231), chief of mission/country director survey (117), and focus group (20). To meet the needs of the society and recognise the required functional components of project management, the overall contexts of managing projects in a post-conflict environment have been discussed in the study. Findings – Planning and implementing reconstruction projects in areas affected by conflict have proven to be far more challenging than expected and responses by practitioners, aid agencies, and government regarded as inadequate. The changing political, economic, and social factors in Kosovo after the war in 1999 have had a significant influence on the limited adoption of a project management methodology in development and reconstruction projects. The findings from the exploratory study were aimed at improving understanding of the planning, pre-designing, and implementation of infrastructure projects. The findings indicated a need to promote a better understanding of how projects are undertaken at all levels of the organisation, and to describe processes, procedures, and tools used for the actual application of projects. The findings of the study identified a poor quality of planning and implementation of reconstruction projects in an environment of complexity, change, and uncertainty. The study also raised some very significant findings for a broader approach to community involvement in project identification, planning, and implementation. Infrastructure projects implemented in Kosovo were used to develop a conceptual framework for designing projects and programmes more likely to yield positive outcomes for post-conflict society. Originality/value – The study was done by the researcher in Kosovo.


Subject Bukele and congress. Significance Salvadoran troops on February 9 occupied the Legislative Assembly at the invitation of President Nayib Bukele. The occupation was intended as a high-profile stunt to pressure legislators into approving Bukele’s request for extra security funding. In reality, it revived memories of the country’s brutal civil war, sparking domestic and international criticism, undermining Bukele’s domestic and international image and probably bringing his honeymoon period to an abrupt end. Impacts The military is now less likely to take part in large-scale security operations given concerns raised by its visible presence. Bukele’s new anti-corruption body is set to receive less funding and powers via congressional grant. Bukele will maintain his antagonistic stance ahead of the 2021 elections, where he hopes to boost his party’s legislative presence.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jon Unruh ◽  
Matthew Pritchard ◽  
Emily Savage ◽  
Chris Wade ◽  
Priya Nair ◽  
...  

With the rapid increase in the number of mega-infrastructure projects underway across East Africa, how the social, economic, political and environmental repercussions of these projects intersect with ongoing conflict dynamics is a poorly understood topic. Although recent interest in large-scale land acquisitions has led to a number of detailed investigations into specific projects and trends, there has not yet been a broad, systematic review of how large-scale infrastructure developments in East Africa interact with previous, ongoing and potential conflict in their areas of operation. The objective of this article is to report on an analysis of 26 mega-infrastructure projects across Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Uganda, with an explicit focus on the common tension points that contribute to security dynamics. The methodology used involved two composite indicators of risk—a conflict risk score and a project impact score. The study found seven common tensions across all projects: in-migration, population displacement and relocation, a negative history of community relations with previous or follow-on developments, land rights, securitisation, environmental degradation and expectations of the local population relative to benefits delivered by the project. The study recommends increased attention on prior assessments that focus on the broader and more interconnected impacts in addition to those confined to the immediate project location, as well as in-depth examination of possible mitigation measures. JEL Classification: O1, O2, Q2, Q3, Q4, R1, R4


2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 325-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Maniatopoulos ◽  
David J. Hunter ◽  
Jonathan Erskine ◽  
Bob Hudson

PurposeFollowing publication of a new vision for the English National Health Service (NHS) in 2014, known as the NHS Five-Year Forward View, a Vanguard programme was introduced by NHS England charged with the task of designing and delivering a range of new care models (NCMs) aimed at tackling deep-seated problems of a type facing all health systems to a greater or lesser degree. Drawing upon recent theoretical developments on the multilevel nature of context, we explore factors shaping the implementation of five NCM initiatives in the North East of England.Design/methodology/approachData collection was based on semi-structured interviews (66 in total) between December 2016 and May 2017 with key informants at each site and a detailed review of Trusts' internal documents and policies related to the implementation of each NCM. Our analysis explores factors shaping the implementation of five NCM pilot sites as they touched on the multiple levels of context ranging from the macro policy level to the micro-level setting of workforce redesign.FindingsIt is far too early to conclude with any confidence that a successful outcome for the NCM programme will be forthcoming although the NHS Long-Term Plan seeks to build on the earlier vision set out in the Five-Year Forward View. Early indications show some signs of promise, especially where there is evidence of the ground having been prepared and changes already being put in place prior to the official launch of NCM initiatives. At the same time our findings demonstrate that all five pilot sites experienced, and were subject to, unrealistic pressure placed upon them to deliver outcomes.Originality/valueOur findings demonstrate the need for a deeper understanding of the multilevel nature of context by exploring factors shaping the implementation of five NCMs in the North East of England. Exploring the wider national policy context is desirable as well as understanding the perceptions of front-line staff and service users in order to establish the degree of alignment or, conversely, to identify where policy and practice are at risk of pushing and pulling against each other.


2021 ◽  
pp. SP494-2020-236
Author(s):  
David G. Quirk ◽  
John R. Underhill ◽  
Jon G. Gluyas ◽  
Matthew J. Howe ◽  
Hamish A. M. Wilson ◽  
...  

AbstractHuman emissions of greenhouse gases have caused a predictable rise of 1.2°C in global temperatures. Over the last 70 years, the rise has occurred at a geologically unprecedented speed and scale. To avoid a worsening situation, most developed nations are turning to renewable sources of power to meet their climate commitments, including UK, Norway, Denmark and The Netherlands. The North Sea basin offers many advantages in the transition from fossil fuels by virtue of its natural resources, physical setting, offshore infrastructure and skilled workforce. Nonetheless, the magnitude of the up-front costs and the areas required to achieve net zero emissions are rarely acknowledged. In addition, some of the technologies being planned are commercially immature. In particular, the current cost of capture, transport and disposal of carbon dioxide is problematic, if it is to be applied as a large-scale solution to industrial emissions. To repurpose the North Sea to meet a low-carbon future will require substantial collaboration between governments and industrial sectors. There are nonetheless significant opportunities for companies prepared to switch from the traditional oil and gas business.Supplementary material at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5684641


Significance Ansar al-Islam is part of ‘Be Steadfast’ (Fathbutu), a coalition of al-Qaida-linked groups formed in June. Meanwhile, the dominant rebel force in the north, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has moved away from its al-Qaida roots, is seeking to prevent the new alliance from conducting independent military operations. Impacts Damascus’s next offensive could potentially push towards Idlib’s provincial capital, threatening HTS’s ‘Salvation Government’. Renewed fighting in Idlib would result in significant casualties and wide-scale displacement. Future US airstrikes will target Be Steadfast commanders and largely ignore HTS.


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