Prospects for Latin America in the second quarter

Subject Prospects for Latin America in the second quarter. Significance Despite some improvement in the global economic outlook, primarily in the United States, most of Latin America's largest economies will perform relatively poorly in the second quarter, with Venezuela and Argentina in particular likely to remain in recession. The deteriorating situation in Brazil may generate wider ripple effects.

Significance The GCC imports around 85% of the food its member countries consume domestically, and the share of Latin American products as a proportion of the GCC’s total food imports has increased from 10% in 2015 to almost 14% in 2019. Impacts Pandemic-induced adoption of innovations such as e-commerce will provide opportunities to expand food exports. Post-pandemic recovery in tourism may eventually boost the GCC’s need for food imports. Growth in other markets will be crucial to help reduce LAC’s dependence on key markets such as China and the United States.


2020 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 625-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jairo Buitrago Ciro ◽  
Lynne Bowker

PurposeThis is a comparative investigation of how university libraries in the United States, Canada and Spanish-speaking Latin America are responding to predatory publishing.Design/methodology/approachThe Times Higher Education World University Rankings was used to identify the top ten universities from each of the US and Canada, as well as the top 20 Spanish-language universities in Latin America. Each university library's website was scrutinized to discover whether the libraries employed scholarly communication librarians, whether they offered scholarly communication workshops, or whether they shared information about scholarly communication on their websites. This information was further examined to determine if it discussed predatory publishing specifically.FindingsMost libraries in the US/Canada sample employ scholarly communication librarians and nearly half offer workshops on predatory publishing. No library in the Latin America sample employed a scholarly communication specialist and just one offered a workshop addressing predatory publishing. The websites of the libraries in the US and Canada addressed predatory publishing both indirectly and directly, with US libraries favoring the former approach and Canadian libraries tending towards the latter. Predatory publishing was rarely addressed directly by the libraries in the Latin America sample; however, all discussed self-archiving and/or Open Access.Research limitations/implicationsBrazilian universities were excluded owing to the researchers' language limitations. Data were collected between September 15 and 30, 2019, so it represents a snapshot of information available at that time. The study was limited to an analysis of library websites using a fixed set of keywords, and it did not investigate whether other campus units were involved or whether other methods of informing researchers about predatory publishing were being used.Originality/valueThe study reveals some best practices leading to recommendations to help academic libraries combat predatory publishing and improve scholarly publishing literacy among researchers.


Significance On her return from the United States and Russia, President Dilma Rousseff's problems have not changed; indeed, most worsened during her absence. Brazil's economic outlook is bleaker, the governing political coalition weaker and the scope of the corruption scandal has widened. Impacts Congress will push back more strongly against spending cuts as the government's situation weakens. The PMDB as a whole is unlikely to follow Cunha's lead, at least in the short term. Lula's fate will have major longer-term implications for the future of the PT.


Subject Growing remittances to Latin America. Significance Family remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have been growing strongly in a year when immigration has become a central and controversial election issue in the United States. Impacts Strong remittance growth will have a positive impact on millions of low-income families in the region. A Trump presidency could lead to reduced LAC-US migration and a tax on remittances, probably slowing growth in 2017-18. LAC migrants and their families are set to benefit further from an expected continuing fall in sending costs.


Subject The spread of media regulation initiatives. Significance Unlike in Europe or the United States, there is an increasingly consolidated trend in Latin America towards media regulation: various governments have pushed for the adoption of new anti-trust rules and the strengthening of executive control over the media. However, there are significant differences in approach across the region. Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil all face challenges in this context. Impacts Disputes between the Argentine government and media may become more raucous as October elections approach. Uruguay's good reputation in terms of media freedom will not be undermined by its new broadcasting law. Brazil needs a new regulatory framework, but doubts over the risk of content controls have delayed it before and may do so again.


Subject The informal sector in Latin America. Significance The scale of informality in Latin American labour markets is widely seen as the main reason for the region's low levels of labour productivity; consequently, policymakers seek ways to induce a transfer of labour towards the formal sector where, in addition, workers come within the tax net. However, in spite of a decade of growth in the region, levels of informality have remained stubbornly high. Impacts A reduction in informality could increase the number of taxpayers and thus revenues. Tighter migration policies in the United States could limit options for surplus labour to relocate elsewhere. Lower birth rates will slow the number of new entrants into the labour market overall.


Subject Chinese opportunities in Latin America. Significance US retrenchment from global economic institutions would create a vacuum that China is well-positioned to fill. In Latin America, this would accelerate trends underway since the turn of the century that have seen China eclipse the United States as the main trade partner and source of financing for several countries. The potential realignment would be greatest in the region’s traditional US allies and enthusiastic participants in US-led institutions: Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Impacts A less globally engaged United States creates an opportunity for China to promote its financial institutions and trade integration projects. China stands to gain the most in strategic terms in countries hitherto aligned with the United States. This appears propitious for a Chinese strategy of diversification of its ties away from high-risk settings such as Ecuador and Venezuela.


Subject Spain's political and economic involvement in Latin America. Significance In the two decades leading up to the 2008 crisis, Spain saw its economic presence in Latin America grow rapidly as a result of investments in sectors such as banking, telecoms and public utilities. However, the crisis resulted in Spanish investment stagnating along with its political influence. With China having pledged as much as 250 billion dollars in investment by 2025, it is unlikely that Spain will maintain its position as the region’s second most important economic partner after the United States into the medium term. Impacts The unlikelihood of major divestments by Spanish companies will limit opportunities for domestic firms to acquire profitable assets. More market-friendly regional governments than in previous decades will help mitigate the risk of renationalisations. China’s abundant capital for state-to-state financing will give it significant political leverage which Spain will be unable to match. The scope of Chinese financing is likely to broaden beyond its currently limited destinations.


Significance The European Commission has upped its contribution to 1 billion euros, with Germany next at 428 million, and Italy fourth at 225 million, after securing agreement that it would be counted against its budget deficit. The facility fulfils an EU pledge of assistance to Turkey made in November, amid growing signs that the United States may distance itself openly from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) over internal freedom of expression issues. Impacts US-Turkish differences compound unresolved tensions in other areas such as Syria and Iraq. Such differences may well be skated round at Erdogan's face-to-face meeting with Obama at the Washington nuclear security summit in March. Erdogan's trip to Latin America may broaden Ankara's alliances and reduce its sense of isolation. but will have little practical result.


Subject The economic outlook for China. Significance Downward pressure on economic growth is growing amid trade tension with the United States and the effects of a campaign to deleverage the domestic economy. The central government has made a clear shift towards looser monetary and fiscal policy to provide liquidity and stimulate business activity, implying that authorities' concerns about slowing growth are serious. Impacts Interest rate cuts and further credit injections are likely before year-end if trade tensions with the United States persist. Investments in infrastructure will facilitate technological development such as 5G adoption, with a wider impact on other industries. Infrastructure investment is back in favour in Beijing, so the Belt and Road Initiative could receive another boost abroad.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document