Prospects for India in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Big Bang ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for India in the second quarter. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered a major defeat in Delhi elections in February, denting the party's perception of electoral invincibility. This has cast a shadow over Modi's economic agenda just when investor pressure is mounting for 'big bang' reforms. Nonetheless, signs of economic recovery -- visible in the uptick in GDP growth, moderating inflation and strengthening balance of payments -- promise the government room for manoeuvre in the second quarter of 2015 (the first quarter of fiscal 2015-16).

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Prospects for India in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for India in 2016. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has accelerated its agenda of piecemeal and sequential reform following his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s defeat in the Bihar elections last month. As difficult state elections approach in the first half of 2016, the government is banking on these reforms and headline growth to secure voter and investor support. In foreign policy, the government is likely to focus on regions of strategic importance, especially Russia and the Middle East.

Prospects for India in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for India in 2018. Significance India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has responded to the recent economic slowdown by drawing up plans to recapitalise public sector banks (PSBs) and invest in infrastructure. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also under pressure to create jobs. The government will be expected to deliver on its promises with elections due in around 18 months’ time.

India’s central bank will be more amenable to Modi

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Consecutive Term ◽  
Indian Banks ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject RBI under new governorship. Significance Shaktikanta Das was last month appointed Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor after Urjit Patel resigned. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had for several months clashed with the RBI over how to foster economic growth. The general election is likely in April or May, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough fight to win a second consecutive term. Impacts In election campaigning, Modi will emphasise India’s mostly robust quarterly GDP growth figures during his term. Indian banks’ level of bad debt could decrease by the end of the fiscal year ending March 2019. India will likely widen its fiscal deficit target for 2018/19 (3.3% of GDP) ahead of the 2019/20 budget.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Thai government infighting may hurt economic recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Legal Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
The Government

Significance Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha remains under pressure to carry out a cabinet reshuffle to contain government infighting. At the same time, the government is trying to spur a recovery from the economic slump caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Impacts The departure of technocratic ministers from the cabinet would set back investor confidence. A COVID-19 state of emergency could be extended beyond end-July, even though Thailand appears to have the pandemic under control. The government will continue to direct legal cases against opposition leaders to hamper their parties.

Bangladesh economy is showing signs of resilience

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Garment Workers ◽  
The Government

Significance The pandemic has badly hit the economically important ready-made garments (RMG) sector, but there are signs that textile exports are picking up. The government targets GDP growth of 8.2% in the fiscal year ending June 2021 -- the same as in 2018/19, and a marked recovery from the slowdown in 2019/20. Impacts Economic recovery will boost support for the government, whose dominance of politics remains formidable. Garment workers who remain out of work may engage in anti-government protests. Supplies of COVID-19 vaccines from India will help consolidate Dhaka-Delhi ties.

India’s economic growth will slow further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject India's macroeconomic problems. Significance Fitch Ratings last week reduced its forecast for Indian GDP growth in fiscal year 2019/20 (April-March) to 5.5%, compared to a projection in June of 6.6%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier this month forecasted 6.1%, compared to a projection in February of 7.4%. Either Fitch’s or the RBI’s latest figure would be India’s lowest full-year growth rate since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Impacts As growth slows further, more foreign portfolio investors will withdraw from Indian equity and debt markets. Plans to merge public sector banks, consolidating their debts, will prompt more protests by bank workers fearing for their jobs. Opposition parties will challenge the nationally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party on its economic record at upcoming state elections.

Prospects for India to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Prospects for India to end-2017. Significance The expected economic scenario over the second half of 2017 is low inflation and a rebound of GDP growth from a slowdown in the first half. Following the triumph of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Uttar Pradesh state elections in March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi can expect a relatively quiet political season until year-end.

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