US-Gulf rifts set to widen over Syria and Iran

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Nuclear Policy ◽  
Gulf States

Significance While the rift between Washington and its Gulf allies is not as wide as it was at the height of the 2011 Arab uprisings, Gulf states do not particularly trust Washington's commitment to their security. This rift will only widen if the United States and Iran reach a settlement on nuclear policy, although the change in Saudi leadership offers a chance to boost relations. Impacts Washington will struggle to improve direct relations between Riyadh and Tehran. Divisions between Saudi Arabia and Gulf states more willing to engage Iran, namely Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, are likely to rise. A centre-left victory in the Israeli elections may lead to a US-supported regional framework for a peace process with Palestinians.

Russian build-up raises geopolitical stakes in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Russian Military

Significance US officials estimate that Russia has dispatched tanks and artillery to Syria in recent weeks in a reported military build-up, raising concerns that Moscow is embarking upon an extensive mission to bolster President Bashar al-Assad's embattled regime and establish a substantial Russian military presence in the Middle East. The build-up comes amid an intensive Russian diplomatic drive in Syria. Impacts Recent attempts to revive the UN-backed Geneva peace process will stumble due to the lack of US-Russian and Saudi-Iranian unanimity. Russia will use its influence over Assad as a bargaining chip in its stand-off with the United States and Europe. Hezbollah and Tehran will be emboldened by Moscow's solid backing of the Assad regime. However, this may also complicate Russia's ties with the Gulf states, Turkey and Israel.

Oman-Iran relations will survive pressures

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Gulf Crisis ◽  
Formal Relations ◽  
The One

Subject Oman-Iran relations Significance Oman is the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member that maintains formal relations with all states in the region, including Iran, which has fallen out with the two most powerful GCC states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Oman’s diplomatic channel to Tehran enables it to play the role of mediator between the United States and its Arab allies on the one side and Iran on the other. Indeed, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called Sultan Qaboos on May 16 to discuss alleged Iranian threats. Impacts An outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran would leave Oman isolated from other GCC states. Oman would reap economic benefits as a transshipment centre for Gulf states if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fight with Iran. A worsening Gulf crisis would increase smuggling between Iran and Oman, with Tehran eager to keep supplying Huthi rebels in Yemen.

Religious tolerance aids the Gulf’s expats and rulers

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Religious Freedom ◽  
The United States ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Religious Tolerance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Good For

Significance The pope’s trip highlights the efforts of several Gulf countries to brand themselves as religiously tolerant. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are also hoping that the promotion of tolerance will be good for their relations with the United States and Europe, changing perceptions that they have fostered radicalism. Impacts Saudi Arabia will make its moves more slowly and cautiously than other Gulf states. Saudi religious conservatives may object to visits by priests, although their objections are unlikely to be loudly voiced. Abu Dhabi and Riyadh will highlight progress on religious freedom to distract from the Yemen war and (for the latter) the Khashoggi affair.

Jordan’s economic stability will hinge on foreign aid

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Arab States

Significance This comes as an austerity drive, including a controversial law to expand income tax coverage, has sparked the most serious protests the kingdom has faced since the 2011 Arab uprisings. Impacts Other Arab states facing fiscal problems and protests, such as Tunisia and Morocco, may look for similar Gulf support. Jordan may reciprocate with security support for the Gulf states in an 'Arab NATO' initiative, which the United States backs. Jordan will try to balance relations carefully with Qatar and the other Gulf states to maximise its benefits.

Ties with India depend on Iran's normalisation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Trade Relationships ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.

Gulf rivals will likely increase US lobbying efforts

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Influence ◽  
Gulf States

Subject Gulf states lobbying in the United States. Significance The Gulf states have long been among the largest spenders on lobbying initiatives in the United States, promoting their economic interests and perspectives on regional geopolitics. This has intensified since 2017 as the Qatar dispute has polarised the region and both sides have sought to win over crucial US decision-makers. These efforts have often backfired and drawn accusations of improper behaviour that could damage bilateral relationships and may affect US domestic politics. Impacts Others considering influencing US policy will look carefully at the successes but also the controversies this lobbying has generated. There is a risk of long-term damage to some Gulf-US relationships amid growing suspicion of foreign influence. Robert Mueller’s probe into the Trump campaign and Russia, which may conclude this year, may also implicate some Gulf states.

Iran is set to become a formidable cyber actor

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyber Warfare ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Sector

Subject Iran's cyber capabilities. Significance Tehran has invested in its technology sector in recent years to become one of the world’s most cyber-capable nations. Though perhaps not on the same level as China and Russia, it is not far behind. Iranian hackers have carried out successful attacks in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States. Impacts Saudi Arabia is Iran’s primary target for cyber operations, followed by Saudi supporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran will augment its own cyber warfare capabilities through proxies such as the 'Syrian Electronic Army'. US reversals over the nuclear deal may lead Iran to unleash a new wave of cyberattacks against US interests.

Israel will strengthen its ties with the Gulf

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Opportunities ◽  
The Past ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Middle East Policy

Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.

Israeli diplomacy will fail to quash Iran-Syria threat

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Southern Zone ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Post War

Significance Israel sees rising risks from developments in Syria, especially the implementation of four ‘de-escalation zones’ agreed on May 6 by Russia, Iran and Turkey after talks in Astana. Netanyahu is concerned that these -- especially the southern zone, implemented in cooperation with the United States and Jordan -- will entrench an Iranian military presence in post-war Syria, including in areas close to the Israeli border. Impacts Rising Iranian spending on its ballistic missile programme will exacerbate Israeli concerns. The eighth round of UN-mandated Syrian peace talks in Geneva this month will assume implementation of the de-escalation zones. Shared concerns over Iran will boost Israel’s ties with some Sunni Arab governments, especially Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s enhanced coordination with Iran will not undermine growing economic and energy ties with Israel.

Elections will sharpen US focus on Libya

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Relative Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Actors

Subject The Trump administration's policy on the Libya conflict. Significance In recent weeks, the United States has pursued a more active foreign policy towards Libya. This is a departure from its position of the past eight years of ‘leading from the back’ on Libya and comes as US President Donald Trump faces an impeachment investigation and elections in November 2020. With the vote approaching, Trump's opponents have increasingly criticised his position on Moscow, drawing attention to the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya. Impacts Ties with Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the relative influence Russia has with them, will weigh on the administration’s thinking. The State Department may push more actively for a ceasefire when a conference of external actors in Libya takes place in Berlin. A ceasefire could fragment the forces fighting Haftar without robust external guarantees that his forces would not violate it.

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