scholarly journals Evolutionary rescue is determined by differential selection on demographic rates and density dependence

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna C Vinton ◽  
David A Vasseur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Selective Pressure ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Density Dependent Selection

Accelerated rates of climate change are expected to either lead to populations adapting and persisting, or suffering extinction. Traditionally ecological models make extinction predictions based on how environmental change alters the intrinsic growth rate (r). However, these often ignore potential for evolutionary rescue, or to avoid extinction via adaptive evolution. Moreover, the environment may impose selective pressure on specific demographic rates (birth and death) rather than directly on r (the difference between the birth and death rates). Therefore, when we consider the potential for evolutionary rescue, populations with the same r can have different abilities to persist amidst environmental change. We can’t adequately understand evolutionary rescue without accounting for demography, and interactions between density dependence and environmental change. Using stochastic birth-death population models, we found evolutionary rescue more likely when environmental change alters birth rather than the death rate. Furthermore, species that evolve via density dependent selection are less vulnerable to extinction than species that undergo selection independent of population density. Resolving the key demographic factors affected by environmental change can lead to an understanding of how populations evolve to avoid extinction. By incorporating these considerations into our models we can better predict how species will respond to climate change.

scholarly journals A STATISTICAL STUDY OF MORTALITY FROM LEUKEMIA

Blood ◽  
1947 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
MILTON S. SACKS ◽  
ISADORE SEEMAN
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Acute Leukemia ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Myeloid Leukemia ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
The Difference

Abstract The recorded death rate from leukemia in the United States has risen continuously since 1900, with an accelerated rate of increase since 1930. The rise from a rate of 1.9 per 100,000 population in 1920 to 3.7 in 1940 represents an increase of 94.7 per cent in this twenty-year period. This increase cannot be accounted for by changes in the age distribution of the population, for the age specific death rates have increased in each age group. The factor of increasing recognition of the disease resulting from improved diagnostic technics and greater use of hospitals with their laboratory facilities must be given adequate consideration in an effort to determine the causes for the rising death rate. White persons are affected at a rate more than twice as great as nonwhites. Some of the difference must be attributed to variations in the availability of diagnostic services. Males experience a rate approximately one-third greater than females. Leukemia affects persons in the older ages, particularly over 55 years, with the greatest frequency, and the population under 5 years of age experiences a mortality rate higher than any other age under 45 years. In the intermediate ages the death rate falls to the lowest point. In 1940 the death rate from leukemia for all ages was 3.7 per 100,000 population. The highest rate, 15.7 per 100,000 occurred in the age group 75-84 years. Under 1 year the rate was 4.9 per 100,000. The lowest rate, 1.5 per 100,000, occurred in the ages from 15 to 2.4 years. Figures for the city of Baltimore for the five-year period 1939-1943 indicate an almost equal incidence of lymphoid and myeloid leukemia. Nearly two-thirds of the deaths studied in Baltimore were reported as acute leukemia. Acute myeloid leukemia appears to be more common than acute lymphoid. After age 45 chronic leukemia is more frequently observed; younger persons experience acute leukemia most commonly. Undoubtedly many deaths result from leukemia in which this disease was neither diagnosed nor recorded on a death certificate. Clinical evidence indicates that the causes in which this failure would occur most commonly are cancer, anemia, and diseases of the spleen. Statistical evidence reveals that these conditions are certified jointly with leukemia in a significant number and proportion of cases. Comparison of the experience of several countries indicates that the general trends of mortality from leukemia in the United States are common to the other communities. The death rates per 100,000 population in 1931 adjusted for differences in age and sex composition of the population were: United States, 3.5; England and Wales, 3.0; Paris 2.5; and Canada 2.3. Each year since 1940 more than 5,000 persons in the United States have died from leukemia.

The impact of climate temperature on counts, recovery, and death rates due to SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neven Chetty ◽  
Bamise Adeleye ◽  
Abiola Olawale Ilori
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
Warm Climate ◽  
The South ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Online Resource ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The impact of climate temperature on the counts (number of positive COVID-19 cases reported), recovery, and death rates of COVID-19 cases in South Africa's nine provinces was investigated. The data for confirmed cases of COVID-19 were collected for March 25 and June 30, 2020 (14 weeks) from South Africa's Government COVID-19 online resource, while the daily provincial climate temperatures were collected from the website of the South African Weather Service. Our result indicates that a higher or lower climate temperature does not prevent or delay the spread and death rates but shows significant positive impacts on the recovery rates of COVID-19 patients. Thus, it indicates that the climate temperature is unlikely to impose a strict limit on the spread of COVID-19. There is no correlation between the cases and death rates, an indicator that no particular temperature range is closely associated with a faster or slower death rate of COVID-19 patients. As evidence from our study, a warm climate temperature can only increase the recovery rate of COVID-19 patients, ultimately impacting the death and active case rates and freeing up resources quicker to enable health facilities to deal with those patients' climbing rates who need treatment. OBJECTIVE This study aims to investigate the impact of climate temperature variation on the counts, recovery, and death rates of COVID-19 cases in all South Africa's provinces. The findings were compared with those of countries with comparable climate temperature values. METHODS The data for confirmed cases of COVID-19 were collected for March 25 and June 30 (14 weeks) for South African provinces, including daily counts, death, and recovery rates. The dates were grouped into two, wherein weeks 1-5 represent the periods of total lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa. Weeks 6-14 are periods where the lockdown was eased to various levels 4 and 3. The daily information of COVID-19 count, death, and recovery was obtained from South Africa's Government COVID-19 online resource (https://sacoronavirus.co.za). Daily provincial climate temperatures were collected from the website of the South African Weather Service (https://www.weathersa.co.za). The provinces of South Africa are Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Northern Cape, Limpopo, Northwest, Mpumalanga, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape, and Gauteng. Weekly consideration was given to the daily climate temperature (average minimum and maximum). The recorded values were considered, respectively, to be in the ratio of death-to-count (D/C) and recovery-to-count (R/C). Descriptive statistics were performed for all the data collected for this study. The analyses were performed using the Person’s bivariate correlation to analyze the association between climate temperature, death-to-count, and recovery-to-count ratios of COVID-19. RESULTS The results showed that higher climate temperatures aren't essential to avoid the COVID-19 from being spread. The present results conform to the reports that suggested that COVID-19 is unlike the seasonal flu, which does dissipate as the climate temperature rises [17]. Accordingly, the ratio of counts and death-to-count cannot be concluded to be influenced by variations in the climate temperatures within the study areas. CONCLUSIONS The study investigates the impact of climate temperature on the counts, recovery, and death rates of COVID-19 cases in all South Africa's provinces. The findings were compared with those of countries with comparable climate temperatures as South Africa. Our result indicates that a higher or lower climate temperature does not prevent or delay the spread and death rates but shows significant positive impacts on the recovery rates of COVID-19 patients. Warm climate temperatures seem not to restrict the spread of the COVID-19 as the count rate was substantial at every climate temperatures. Thus, it indicates that the climate temperature is unlikely to impose a strict limit on the spread of COVID-19. There is no correlation between the cases and death rates, an indicator that there is no particular temperature range of the climatic conditions closely associated with a faster or slower death rate of COVID-19 patients. However, other shortcomings in this study's process should not be ignored. Some other factors may have contributed to recovery rates, such as the South African government's timely intervention to announce a national lockout at the early stage of the outbreak, the availability of intensive medical care, and social distancing effects. Nevertheless, this study shows that a warm climate temperature can only help COVID-19 patients recover more quickly, thereby having huge impacts on the death and active case rates.

scholarly journals Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Clark ◽  
Robert Andrus ◽  
Melaine Aubry-Kientz ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Michal Bogdziewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Condition ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The West ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Species Abundances ◽  
Meta Analyses

AbstractIndirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

scholarly journals Turbid Coral Reefs: Past, Present and Future—A Review

Diversity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 251
Author(s):  
Adi Zweifler (Zvifler) ◽  
Michael O’Leary ◽  
Kyle Morgan ◽  
Nicola K. Browne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coral Reef ◽  
Coral Reefs ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Reef Complex ◽  
Sediment Input

Increasing evidence suggests that coral reefs exposed to elevated turbidity may be more resilient to climate change impacts and serve as an important conservation hotspot. However, logistical difficulties in studying turbid environments have led to poor representation of these reef types within the scientific literature, with studies using different methods and definitions to characterize turbid reefs. Here we review the geological origins and growth histories of turbid reefs from the Holocene (past), their current ecological and environmental states (present), and their potential responses and resilience to increasing local and global pressures (future). We classify turbid reefs using new descriptors based on their turbidity regime (persistent, fluctuating, transitional) and sources of sediment input (natural versus anthropogenic). Further, by comparing the composition, function and resilience of two of the most studied turbid reefs, Paluma Shoals Reef Complex, Australia (natural turbidity) and Singapore reefs (anthropogenic turbidity), we found them to be two distinct types of turbid reefs with different conservation status. As the geographic range of turbid reefs is expected to increase due to local and global stressors, improving our understanding of their responses to environmental change will be central to global coral reef conservation efforts.

Climate change, global change: What is the difference?

Eos ◽  
1988 ◽  
Vol 69 (25) ◽  
pp. 668
Author(s):  
S.I. Rasool
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Change ◽  
The Difference

scholarly journals Towards Sustainable Development: Building’s Retrofitting with PCMs to Enhance the Indoor Thermal Comfort in Tropical Climate, Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3614
Author(s):  
Zeyad Amin Al-Absi ◽  
Mohd Isa Mohd Hafizal ◽  
Mazran Ismail ◽  
Azhar Ghazali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Phase Change Materials ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Transition Temperatures ◽  
Indoor Thermal Environment ◽  
Adaptive Thermal Comfort ◽  
The Difference

Building sector is associated with high energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change. Sustainable development emphasizes any actions to reduce climate change and its effect. In Malaysia, half of the energy utilized in buildings goes towards building cooling. Thermal comfort studies and adaptive thermal comfort models reflect the high comfort temperatures for Malaysians in naturally conditioned buildings, which make it possible to tackle the difference between buildings’ indoor temperature and the required comfort temperature by using proper passive measures. This study investigates the effectiveness of building’s retrofitting with phase change materials (PCMs) as a passive cooling technology to improve the indoor thermal environment for more comfortable conditions. PCM sheets were numerically investigated below the internal finishing of the walls. The investigation involved an optimization study for the PCMs transition temperatures and quantities. The results showed significant improvement in the indoor thermal environment, especially when using lower transition temperatures and higher quantities of PCMs. Therefore, the monthly thermal discomfort time has decreased completely, while the thermal comfort time has increased to as high as 98%. The PCM was effective year-round and the optimum performance for the investigated conditions was achieved when using 18mm layer of PCM27-26.

scholarly journals Analysis of livestock breeders’ perceptions and their adaptation measures to climate change in Morocco‘s arid rangelands

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Wadii Snaibi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Eastern Morocco ◽  
Climate Analysis

AbstractThe high plateaus of eastern Morocco are already suffering from the adverse impacts of climate change (CC), as the local populations’ livelihoods depend mainly on extensive sheep farming and therefore on natural resources. This research identifies breeders’ perceptions about CC, examines whether they correspond to the recorded climate data and analyses endogenous adaptation practices taking into account the agroecological characteristics of the studied sites and the difference between breeders’ categories based on the size of owned sheep herd. Data on perceptions and adaptation were analyzed using the Chi-square independence and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Climate data were investigated through Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and Buishand tests.Herders’ perceptions are in line with the climate analysis in term of nature and direction of observed climate variations (downward trend in rainfall and upward in temperature). In addition, there is a significant difference in the adoption frequency of adaptive strategies between the studied agroecological sub-zones (χ2 = 14.525, p <.05) due to their contrasting biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, as well as among breeders’ categories (χ2 = 10.568, p < .05) which attributed mainly to the size of sheep flock. Policy options aimed to enhance local-level adaptation should formulate site-specific adaptation programs and prioritise the small-scale herders.

Evidence of river flow regulation loss over time in the Magdalena river basin 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diver E. Marín ◽  
Juan F. Salazar ◽  
José A. Posada-Marín
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Scaling Theory ◽  
Scaling Properties ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Magdalena River

&lt;p&gt;Some of the main problems in hydrological sciences are related to how and why river flows change as a result of environmental change, and what are the corresponding implications for society. This has been described as the Panta Rhei context, which refers to the challenge of understanding and quantifying hydrological dynamics in a changing environment, i.e. under the influence of non-stationary effects. The river flow regime in a basin is the result of a complex aggregation process that has been studied by the scaling theory, which allows river basins to be classified as regulated or unregulated and to identify a critical threshold between these states. Regulation is defined here as the basin&amp;#8217;s capacity to either dampen high flows or to enhance low flows. This capacity depends on how basins store and release water through time, which in turn depends on many processes that are highly dynamic and sensitive to environmental change. Here we focus on the Magdalena river basin in northwestern South America, which is the main basin for water and energy security in Colombia, and at the same time, it has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Building upon some of our previous studies, here we use data analysis to study the evolution of regulation in the Magdalena basin for 1992-2015 based on the scaling theory for extreme flows. In contrast to most previous studies, here we focus on the scaling properties of events rather than on long term averages. We discuss possible relations between changes in the scaling properties and environmental factors such as climate variability, climate change, and land use/land cover change, as well as the potential implications for water security in the country. Our results show that, during the last few decades, the Magdalena river basin has maintained its capacity to regulate low flows (i.e. amplification) whereas it has been losing its capacity to regulate high flows (i.e. dampening), which could be associated with the occurrence of the extremes phases of&amp;#160; El Ni&amp;#241;o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and anthropogenic effects, mainly deforestation. These results provide foundations for using the scaling laws as empirical tools for understanding temporal changes of hydrological regulation and simultaneously generate useful scientific evidence that allows stakeholders to take decisions related to water management in the Magdalena river basin in the context of environmental change.&lt;/p&gt;

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