scholarly journals Comparison of two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV-2 using as case study Yaoundé-Cameroon, 1980-2005

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana M Hendrickx ◽  
João Dinis Sousa ◽  
Pieter J.K. Libin ◽  
Wim Delva ◽  
Jori Liesenborgs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Complexity ◽  
Individual Based Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Hiv Epidemiology ◽  
Hiv Epidemic ◽  
Simplex Virus ◽  
Evidence For Policy ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTModel comparisons have been widely used to guide intervention strategies to control infectious diseases. Agreement between different models is crucial for providing robust evidence for policy-makers because differences in model properties can influence their predictions. In this study, we compared models implemented by two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a population with Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2). For each model simulator, we constructed four models, starting from a simplified basic model and stepwise including more model complexity. For the resulting eight models, the predictions of the impact of behavioural interventions on the HIV epidemic in Yaoundé (Cameroon) were compared. The results show that differences in model assumptions and model complexity can influence the size of the predicted impact of the intervention, as well as the predicted qualitative behaviour of the HIV epidemic after the intervention. Moreover, two models that agree in their predictions of the HIV epidemic in the absence of intervention can have different outputs when predicting the impact of interventions. Without additional data, it is impossible to determine which of these two models is the most reliable. These findings highlight the importance of making more data available for the calibration and validation of epidemiological models.

scholarly journals Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana M. Hendrickx ◽  
João Dinis Sousa ◽  
Pieter J. K. Libin ◽  
Wim Delva ◽  
Jori Liesenborgs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Complexity ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Hiv Epidemiology ◽  
Hiv Epidemic ◽  
Individual Based Models ◽  
Simplex Virus ◽  
Evidence For Policy ◽  
The Impact

AbstractModel comparisons have been widely used to guide intervention strategies to control infectious diseases. Agreement between different models is crucial for providing robust evidence for policy-makers because differences in model properties can influence their predictions. In this study, we compared models implemented by two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a heterosexual population with Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2). For each model simulator, we constructed four models, starting from a simplified basic model and stepwise including more model complexity. For the resulting eight models, the predictions of the impact of behavioural interventions on the HIV epidemic in Yaoundé-Cameroon were compared. The results show that differences in model assumptions and model complexity can influence the size of the predicted impact of the intervention, as well as the predicted qualitative behaviour of the HIV epidemic after the intervention. These differences in predictions of an intervention were also observed for two models that agreed in their predictions of the HIV epidemic in the absence of that intervention. Without additional data, it is impossible to determine which of these two models is the most reliable. These findings highlight the importance of making more data available for the calibration and validation of epidemiological models.

Empowering Women Entrepreneurs Through Microfinance - A Case of Rural Bangladesh

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Saida Parvin
Keyword(s):  
Women's Empowerment ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Women’S Empowerment ◽  
Case Study Method ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Theoretical Contribution ◽  
Donor Agencies ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

Women’s empowerment has been at the centre of research focus for many decades. Extant literature examined the process, outcome and various challenges. Some claimed substantial success, while others contradicted with evidence of failure. But the success remains a matter of debate due to lack of empirical evidence of actual empowerment of women around the world. The current study aimed to address this gap by taking a case study method. The study critically evaluates 20 cases carefully sampled to include representatives from the entire country of Bangladesh. The study demonstrates popular beliefs about microfinance often misguide even the borrowers and they start living in a fabricated feeling of empowerment, facing real challenges to achieve true empowerment in their lives. The impact of this finding is twofold; firstly there is a theoretical contribution, where the definition of women’s empowerment is proposed to be revisited considering findings from these cases. And lastly, the policy makers at governmental and non-governmental organisations, and multinational donor agencies need to revise their assessment tools for funding.

An Analytical Approach to Cruise Tourism As an Option For Development: a Case Study of the Sultanate of Oman

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-109
Author(s):  
Heba Aziz ◽  
Osman El-Said ◽  
Marike Bontenbal
Keyword(s):  
Capital City ◽  
Sultanate Of Oman ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Cruise Tourism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Average Expenditure ◽  
Return Intention

The objective of this study was to measure the level of cruise tourists' satisfaction as well as the relationship between satisfaction, recommendation, return intention, and expenditure. Also, the impact of factors such as nationality, length of the visit, and age on the level of expenditure was measured. An empirical approach for data collection was followed and a total of 152 questionnaires were collected from cruise tourists visiting the capital city of Oman, Muscat, as cruise liners anchor at Sultan Qaboos Port. Results of the regression analysis supported the existence of a causal relationship between satisfaction with destination attributes, overall satisfaction, recommendation, return intention, and expenditure. It was found that the average expenditure varies according to age and length of the visit. Recommendations for policy makers were suggested on how to increase the role of cruise tourism in strengthening the economy.

scholarly journals Analysis of Emergency Evacuation Modal Choice Behavior with Spatial Indicators: Case Study in Xi’an, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7023
Author(s):  
Zhihao Duan ◽  
Jinliang Xu ◽  
Han Ru ◽  
Yaping Dong ◽  
Xingliang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Modal Choice ◽  
Emergency Events ◽  
Spatial Indicators ◽  
The Impact

To reduce the impact of a natural or man-made disaster, an evacuation is often implemented to transfer the population in the potentially impacted area to a safe zone. Evacuation is an effective measure for dealing with emergency events. This paper presents a multinomial logit model for modal choice behavior in a short-notice emergency evacuation, which incorporates spatial indicators into the utility function. The study examined the determinants of evacuees’ modal choice for three evacuation distances and analyzed determinants impacting the mechanism of the modal choice decision process. The data collected in Xi’an was used to provide empirical evidence for the relationship between spatial indicators and modal choice behavior. The findings of this study will help emergency planners and policy-makers develop strategies for evacuation planning and will enable a better understanding of emergency modal choice behaviors.

scholarly journals Predicting Dynamic Patterns of Short-Term Movement

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S26-S34
Author(s):  
Sveta Milusheva
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Population Movement ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Important Health ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Short-term human mobility has important health consequences, but measuring short-term movement using survey data is difficult and costly, and use of mobile phone data to study short-term movement is only possible in locations that can access the data. Combining several accessible data sources, Senegal is used as a case study to predict short-term movement within the country. The focus is on two main drivers of movement—economic and social—which explain almost 70 percent of the variation in short-term movement. Comparing real and predicted short-term movement to measure the impact of population movement on the spread of malaria in Senegal, the predictions generated by the model provide estimates for the effect that are not significantly different from the estimates using the real data. Given that the data used in this paper are often accessible in other country settings, this paper demonstrates how predictive modeling can be used by policy makers to estimate short-term mobility.

The Impact of Perceptions of Tribalism and Ethnicity on Public Administration in South Africa: A Case Study of the Vuwani in the Vhembe District

Politeia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mavhungu Elias Musitha ◽  
Mavhungu Abel Mafukata
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Local Municipality ◽  
Vhembe District ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of perceptions of ethnicity and tribalism on public administration in South Africa with reference to the protests of Vuwani communities in 2016 against their area being re-demarcated to fall under the LIM 345 municipality (later named the Collins Chabane Local Municipality) dominated by Xitsonga speakers. The study adopted qualitative and exploration designs and used a literature review and key informant interviews in order to obtain secondary and primary data respectively. This study revealed that Vuwani communities feared domination by the Xitsonga-speaking majority in the proposed new municipality. The council of the proposed new municipality consisted of 72 councillors, 74 per cent of which were Xitsonga-speaking councillors and a mere 26 per cent were Tshivenda-speaking councillors. It also found that perceptions of ethnicity and tribalism in Vuwani had rendered public administration ineffective, thus bringing service delivery to a halt for several months. The study recommended that policy-makers should abolish majority representation based solely on regionalism and should seek to forge national unity. It concluded that the establishment of public institutions based on ethnic homogeneity had the potential of bringing about peace and stability in areas characterised by ethnic disparities.

The Impact of Financial Inclusion on Monetary Policy: A Case Study in Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huong Thi Truc Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Pca Method ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Aid Policy

This paper examines the impact of financial inclusion (FI) on monetary policy (MP) – a case study in Vietnam. The PCA method is used to construct a FI index- considered as a comprehensive measure of FI. To answer the main research questions, OLS and GLS models are used to analyze and to overcome the phenomenon of heteroskedasticity. Data is collected through secondary sources including World Bank and IMF reports (for the period 2004-2015). The results of empirical research indicate that there is a negative impact of FI on MP. Accordingly, FI transmits to more successful MP, making efficient financial intermediation and balances, contributing to a stable and sustainable economy. This study concludes that FI will enable monetary policy to extend its reach to the financially excluded and aid policy makers to make better predictions of movements in inflation.

Conclusion: local social innovation and welfare reform

2019 ◽  
pp. 217-228
Author(s):  
Stijn Oosterlynck ◽  
Andreas Novy ◽  
Yuri Kazepov
Keyword(s):  
Welfare Reform ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Social Innovation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Innovations ◽  
Institutional Contexts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In this chapter, we draw a range of overall conclusions from our case-study based investigation of how local social innovations operate as vehicles of welfare reform. We reflect on the impact of the increased interest of policy-makers in social innovation and on the relationship between social innovation and other social policy paradigms, notably the established paradigm of social protection and its main contender, the social investment paradigm. We also discuss our main findings with regard to the mix of actors, resources and instruments supporting localized social innovations, the multi-scalar nature social innovations, its empowerment dimension and relationship with knowledge. Finally, we look at the consolidation of social innovation in specific welfare-institutional contexts.

A bioeconomic approach to assess the impact of an alien invasive insect on timber supply and harvesting: a case study with Sirex noctilio in eastern Canada

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denys Yemshanov ◽  
Daniel W. McKenney ◽  
Peter de Groot ◽  
Dennis Haugen ◽  
Derek Sidders ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Sirex Noctilio ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Potential Losses ◽  
Alien Insect ◽  
The Impact

This study presents a model that assesses the potential impact of a new alien insect species, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, on pine timber supply and harvest activities in eastern Canada. We integrate the spread of S. noctilio with a broad-scale growth and harvest allocation model. Projections of pine mortality range between 25 × 106 and 115 × 106 m3 over 20 years depending on S. noctilio spread and impact assumptions. Our model suggests Ontario could experience the highest, most immediate losses (78% of the potential losses across eastern Canada), with Quebec sustaining most of the rest of the losses over the next 20 years. Potential losses of $86 to $254 million per year are simulated after 20 years. The net present value of total harvest losses after 28 years of outbreak ranges between $0.7 to $2.1 billion. Adaptation policies decrease short-term losses by 46%–55% and delay larger harvest failures by 9–11 years. Without harvest adaptation, failures to maintain annual allowable cut levels may occur once the total area infested exceeds 15 × 106 ha. While better understanding and representing S. noctilio behaviour will involve a significant effort, there is a strong demand by policy makers for this kind of information.

scholarly journals Public Acceptability of Low Emission Zones: The Case of “Madrid Central”

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3251
Author(s):  
Javier Tarriño-Ortiz ◽  
Julio A. Soria-Lara ◽  
Juan Gómez ◽  
José Manuel Vassallo
Keyword(s):  
Political Ideology ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
Social Controversy ◽  
Public Acceptability ◽  
Low Emission ◽  
Personal Attitudes ◽  
The Impact

Cities have intensified the adoption of Low Emission Zones (LEZs) to improve urban livability. Despite the high social controversy caused by LEZs in many cities, the scientific literature has paid little attention to study their public acceptability. This paper conducts a modelling approach exploring the impact of four groups of variables on the public acceptability of LEZs: (i) socio-economic and demographic characteristics; (ii) personal attitudes; (iii) travel-related variables; and (iv) perceptions and mobility habits linked to LEZs. The city of Madrid, Spain, is a case study of great interest because a LEZ called “Madrid Central” has been recently implemented. A total of 799 individual questionnaires were used to calibrate an ordered logit model. Results indicate that socio-economic and demographic variables are weakly related to the level of public acceptability towards the LEZ. On the contrary, the political ideology of individuals, their environmental awareness, their primary transport mode, the use of shared mobility systems, and the frequency of access to “Madrid Central” have a higher explanatory power. The results may be useful for policy-makers to understand the factors that increase the public acceptability of LEZs.

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