scholarly journals Longitudinal analysis of blood markers reveals progressive loss of resilience and predicts ultimate human lifespan limit

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy V. Pyrkov ◽  
Konstantin Avchaciov ◽  
Andrei E. Tarkhov ◽  
Leonid I. Menshikov ◽  
Andrei V. Gudkov ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTWe investigated the dynamic properties of the organism state fluctuations along individual aging trajectories in a large longitudinal database of CBC measurements from a consumer diagnostics laboratory. To simplify the analysis, we used a log-linear mortality estimate from the CBC variables as a single quantitative measure of aging process, henceforth referred to as dynamic organism state index (DOSI). We observed, that the age-dependent population DOSI distribution broadening could be explained by a progressive loss of physiological resilience measured by the DOSI auto-correlation time. Extrapolation of this trend suggested that DOSI recovery time and variance would simultaneously diverge at a critical point of 120 − 150 years of age corresponding to a complete loss of resilience. The observation was immediately confirmed by the independent analysis of correlation properties of intraday physical activity levels fluctuations collected by wearable devices. We conclude that the criticality resulting in the end of life is an intrinsic biological property of an organism that is independent of stress factors and signifies a fundamental or absolute limit of human lifespan.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Pyrkov ◽  
Konstantin Avchaciov ◽  
Andrei Tarkhov ◽  
Leonid Menshikov ◽  
Andrei Gudkov ◽  
...  

Abstract We investigated the dynamic properties of the organism state fluctuations along individual aging trajectories in a large longitudinal database of CBC measurements from a consumer diagnostics laboratory. To simplify the analysis, we used a log-linear mortality estimate from the CBC variables as a single quantitative measure of aging process, henceforth referred to as dynamic organism state index (DOSI). We observed, that the age-dependent population DOSI distribution broadening could be explained by a progressive loss of physiological resilience measured by the DOSI auto-correlation time. Extrapolation of this trend suggested that DOSI recovery time and variance would simultaneously diverge at a critical point of 120-150 years of age corresponding to a complete loss of resilience. The observation was immediately confirmed by the independent analysis of correlation properties of intraday physical activity levels fluctuations collected by wearable devices. We conclude that the criticality resulting in the end of life is an intrinsic biological property of an organism that is independent of stress factors and signifies a fundamental or absolute limit of human lifespan.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy V. Pyrkov ◽  
Konstantin Avchaciov ◽  
Andrei E. Tarkhov ◽  
Leonid I. Menshikov ◽  
Andrei V. Gudkov ◽  
...  

AbstractWe investigated the dynamic properties of the organism state fluctuations along individual aging trajectories in a large longitudinal database of CBC measurements from a consumer diagnostics laboratory. To simplify the analysis, we used a log-linear mortality estimate from the CBC variables as a single quantitative measure of the aging process, henceforth referred to as dynamic organism state indicator (DOSI). We observed, that the age-dependent population DOSI distribution broadening could be explained by a progressive loss of physiological resilience measured by the DOSI auto-correlation time. Extrapolation of this trend suggested that DOSI recovery time and variance would simultaneously diverge at a critical point of 120 − 150 years of age corresponding to a complete loss of resilience. The observation was immediately confirmed by the independent analysis of correlation properties of intraday physical activity levels fluctuations collected by wearable devices. We conclude that the criticality resulting in the end of life is an intrinsic biological property of an organism that is independent of stress factors and signifies a fundamental or absolute limit of human lifespan.


2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 899-905
Author(s):  
Adrián Hernández-Vicente ◽  
Alejandro Santos-Lozano ◽  
Carmen Mayolas-Pi ◽  
Gabriel Rodríguez-Romo ◽  
Helios Pareja-Galeano ◽  
...  

To objectively assess physical activity levels and sedentary behavior in a cohort of Spanish centenarians and their nonagenarian peers. Physical activity and sedentary behavior patterns were objectively measured by an ActiGraph GT3X accelerometer in centenarians (n = 18; 83% women; 100.8 ± 0.8 [100–103] years) and nonagenarians (n = 11; 91% women; 93.3 ± 2.5 [90–98] years). Centenarians showed less counts per minute (17.6 ± 7.1 vs. 46.1 ± 23.7, p = .003, d = 1.851) and steps per day (455 ± 237 vs. 1,249 ± 776, p = .007, d = 1.587) than nonagenarians. The daily number of sedentary breaks was also lower in the former (5.0 ± 1.5 vs. 6.7 ± 2.0, p = .019, d = 0.971). When observing time distribution, the most active day period in both groups was the morning, with a peak between 10:00 and 11:59. This data suggest that the decline in physical activity levels continues to worsen until the end of the human lifespan.


2001 ◽  
Vol 221 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rainer Winkelmann

SummaryThe common estimator for relative adjusted wage differentials based on dummy variables in loglinear regressions is inconsistent in the presence of group-specific heteroskedasticity. The direction and magnitude of the bias are derived. At the same time, a heteroskedasticity-consistent estimator is proposed. The formulas are exact for normally distributed errors and approximations otherwise. An example on the wage determination in the German labor market shows that ignoring the problem of heteroskedasticity will lead to an underestimation of the relative wage gap between Germans and Immigrants, since the wages of immigrants are relatively less dispersed. Evidence from the literature as well as an independent analysis using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1996 yield a downward bias of up to 25 percent. The importance of these results extend beyond the case of dummy variables to the general problem of Computing expectations of retransformed variables.


1993 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimmo Pahkala ◽  
Sirkka-Liisa Kivelä ◽  
Pekka Laippala

This community-based epidemiological survey concerns relationships between social and health factors and depression in a Finnish population aged 60 years or over. A multivariate analysis based on log-liner models is used in this study.The log-linear model showed five interactions for the depressed men and eight for the depressed women surveyed. These indicated that the depressive persons had experienced detrimental events either of an interpersonal nature or concerning health status more often than those who were not depressed. A positive connection between life stress and depression was found even though no cause-and-effect relationship could be defined. Social stress factors seemed somewhat important prior to the onset of depression in the women studied, whereas stressful health factors played a significant role for the men. Despite this, the log-linear models for the selected variables used here did not point to a combination of interactions between a high incidence of current social stress factors and a high incidence of stressful health factors during the six-month period prior to the onset of depression.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saul Newman ◽  
Easteal Simon

AbstractWe respond to claims by Dong et al. that human lifespan is limited below 125 years. Using the log-linear increase in mortality rates with age to predict the upper limits of human survival we find, in contrast to Dong et al., that the limit to human lifespan is historically flexible and increasing. This discrepancy can be explained by Dong et al.’s use of data with variable sample sizes, age-biased rounding errors, and log(0) instead of log(1) values in linear regressions. Addressing these issues eliminates the proposed 125-year upper limit to human lifespan.


F1000Research ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saul Newman ◽  
Simon Easteal

We respond to claims by Dong et al. that human lifespan is limited below 125 years. Using the log-linear increase in mortality rates with age to predict the upper limits of human survival we find, in contrast to Dong et al., that the limit to human lifespan is historically flexible and increasing. This discrepancy can be explained by Dong et al.’s use of data with variable sample sizes, age-biased rounding errors, and log(0) instead of log(1) values in linear regressions. Addressing these issues eliminates the proposed 125-year upper limit to human lifespan.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Foshch ◽  
S. Pelykh

This study represents the improved mathematical and imitational allocated in space multi-zone model of VVER-1000 which differs from the known one. It allows to take into account the energy release of 235U nuclei fission as well as 239Pu . Moreover, this model includes sub-models of simultaneous control impact of the boric acid concentration in the coolant of the first circuit and the position of 9th group control rods which allows to consider it as the model with allocated parameters and also allows to monitor changes in the mentioned technological parameters by reactor core symmetry sectors, by layers of reactor core height and by fuel assembly group each symmetry sector. Moreover, this model allows to calculate important process-dependent parameters of the reactor (including axial offset) as quantitative measure of its safety. As the mathematical and imitational models were improved, it allows to take into account intrinsic properties of the reactor core (including transient processes of xenon) and thus reduce the error of modelling static and dynamic properties of the reactor.The automated control method of power change of the NPP unit with VVER-1000 was proposed for the first time. It uses three control loops. One of which maintains the regulatory change of reactor power by regulating the concentration of boric acid in the coolant, the second circuit keeps the required value of axial offset by changing the position of control rods, and the third one holds constant the coolant temperature mode by regulating the position of the main turbo generator valves.On the basis of the above obtained method, two control programs were improved. The first one is the improved control program that implements the constant temperature of the coolant in the first circuit and the second one is the improved control program that implements the constant steam pressure in the second circuit.


F1000Research ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 569
Author(s):  
Saul Newman ◽  
Simon Easteal

We respond to claims by Dong et al. that human lifespan is limited below 125 years. Using the log-linear increase in mortality rates with age to predict the upper limits of human survival we find, in contrast to Dong et al., that the limit to human lifespan is historically flexible and increasing. This discrepancy can be explained by Dong et al.’s use of data with variable sample sizes, age-biased rounding errors, and log(0) instead of log(1) values in linear regressions. Addressing these issues eliminates the proposed 125-year upper limit to human lifespan.


Author(s):  
R.F. Stump ◽  
J.R. Pfeiffer ◽  
JC. Seagrave ◽  
D. Huskisson ◽  
J.M. Oliver

In RBL-2H3 rat basophilic leukemia cells, antigen binding to cell surface IgE-receptor complexes stimulates the release of inflammatory mediators and initiates a series of membrane and cytoskeletal events including a transformation of the cell surface from a microvillous to a lamellar topography. It is likely that dynamic properties of the IgE receptor contribute to the activation of these responses. Fewtrell and Metzger have established that limited crosslinking of IgE-receptor complexes is essential to trigger secretion. In addition, Baird and colleagues have reported that antigen binding causes a rapid immobilization of IgE-receptor complexes, and we have demonstrated an apparent increase with time in the affinity of IgE-receptor complexes for antigen.


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