scholarly journals Estimating spatially and temporally complex range dynamics when detection is imperfect

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clark S. Rushing ◽  
J. Andrew Royle ◽  
David J. Ziolkowski ◽  
Keith L. Pardieck
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Range Dynamics

AbstractSpecies distributions are determined by the interaction of multiple biotic and abiotic factors, which produces complex spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence. As habitats and climate change due to anthropogenic activities, there is a need to develop species distribution models that can quantify these complex range dynamics. In this paper, we develop a dynamic occupancy model that uses a spatial generalized additive model to estimate non-linear spatial variation in occupancy not accounted for by environmental covariates. The model is flexible and can accommodate data from a range of sampling designs that provide information about both occupancy and detection probability. Output from the model can be used to create distribution maps and to estimate indices of temporal range dynamics. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by modeling long-term range dynamics of 10 eastern North American birds using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We anticipate this framework will be particularly useful for modeling species’ distributions over large spatial scales and for quantifying range dynamics over long temporal scales.

scholarly journals Predicted distribution of a rare and understudied forest carnivore: Humboldt martens (Martes caurina humboldtensis)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Moriarty ◽  
Joel Thompson ◽  
Matthew Delheimer ◽  
Brent Barry ◽  
Mark Linnell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Mammalian Species ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Shrub Cover ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Management Actions

AbstractBackgroundA suite of mammalian species have experienced range contractions following European settlement and post-settlement development of the North American continent. For example, while North American martens (American marten, Martes americana; Pacific marten, M. caurina) generally have a broad range across northern latitudes, local populations have experienced substantial reductions in distribution and some extant populations are small and geographically isolated. The Humboldt marten (M. c. humboldtensis), a subspecies of Pacific marten that occurs in coastal Oregon and northern California, was recently designated as federally threatened in part due to its reduced distribution. To inform strategic conservation actions, we assessed Humboldt marten occurrence by compiling all known records from their range.MethodsWe compiled Humboldt marten locations since their rediscover to present (1,692 marten locations, 1996-2020). We spatially-thinned locations to 500-m to assess correlations with variables across contemporary Humboldt marten distribution (n=384). Using maximum entropy modeling (Maxent), we created distribution models with variables optimized for spatial scale; pre-selected scales were associated with marten ecology (50 to 1170 m radius). Marten locations were most correlated with abiotic factors (e.g., precipitation), which are unalterable and therefore uninformative within the context of restoration or management actions. Thus, we created variables to focus on hypothesized marten habitat relationships, including understory conditions such as predicted suitability of shrub species.ResultsHumboldt marten locations were positively associated with increased shrub cover (salal (Gautheria shallon), mast producing trees), increased pine (Pinus sp) overstory cover and precipitation at home-range spatial scales, areas with low and high amounts of canopy cover and slope, and cooler August temperatures. Unlike other recent literature on the species, we found little evidence that Humboldt marten locations were associated with old growth structural indices, perhaps because of a potential mismatch in the association between this index and shrub cover. As with any species distribution model, there were gaps in predicted distribution where Humboldt martens have been located during more recent surveys, for instance the southeastern portion of Oregon’s coast range. Conservation efforts and our assessment of potential risks to Humboldt marten populations would benefit from additional information on range extent, population sizes, and fine-scale habitat use. Like many rare and lesser-known species, this case study provides an example of how limited information can provide differing interpretations, emphasizing the need for study-level replication in ecology.

scholarly journals Environmental factors influencing fine-scale distribution of Antarctica’s only endemic insect

Oecologia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 194 (4) ◽  
pp. 529-539
Author(s):  
Leslie J. Potts ◽  
J. D. Gantz ◽  
Yuta Kawarasaki ◽  
Benjamin N. Philip ◽  
David J. Gonthier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Biotic Factors ◽  
Belgica Antarctica ◽  
Abiotic And Biotic Factors ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractSpecies distributions are dependent on interactions with abiotic and biotic factors in the environment. Abiotic factors like temperature, moisture, and soil nutrients, along with biotic interactions within and between species, can all have strong influences on spatial distributions of plants and animals. Terrestrial Antarctic habitats are relatively simple and thus good systems to study ecological factors that drive species distributions and abundance. However, these environments are also sensitive to perturbation, and thus understanding the ecological drivers of species distribution is critical for predicting responses to environmental change. The Antarctic midge, Belgica antarctica, is the only endemic insect on the continent and has a patchy distribution along the Antarctic Peninsula. While its life history and physiology are well studied, factors that underlie variation in population density within its range are unknown. Previous work on Antarctic microfauna indicates that distribution over broad scales is primarily regulated by soil moisture, nitrogen content, and the presence of suitable plant life, but whether these patterns are true over smaller spatial scales has not been investigated. Here we sampled midges across five islands on the Antarctic Peninsula and tested a series of hypotheses to determine the relative influences of abiotic and biotic factors on midge abundance. While historical literature suggests that Antarctic organisms are limited by the abiotic environment, our best-supported hypothesis indicated that abundance is predicted by a combination of abiotic and biotic conditions. Our results are consistent with a growing body of literature that biotic interactions are more important in Antarctic ecosystems than historically appreciated.

scholarly journals Climate change and local host availability drive the northern range boundary in the rapid northward expansion of the eastern giant swallowtail butterfly

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Keaton Wilson ◽  
Nicolas Casajus ◽  
Rebecca A. Hutchinson ◽  
Kent P. McFarland ◽  
Jeremy T. Kerr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Host Plants ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Swallowtail Butterfly ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

ABSTRACTAimsSpecies distributions result from both biotic and abiotic interactions across large spatial scales. The interplay of these interactions as climate changes quickly has been understudied, particularly in herbivorous insects. Here, we investigate the relative impacts these influences on the putative northern range expansion of the giant swallowtail butterfly in North America.LocationNorth America.Time period1959-2018.Major taxa studiedEastern Giant swallowtail, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae); common hop tree, Ptelea trifoliata; common prickly ash, Zanthoxylum americanum; southern prickly ash, Zanthoxylum clava-herculis (Saphidales: Rutaceae).MethodsWe used data from museum collections and citizen science repositories to generate species distribution models. Distribution models were built for each species over two time periods (T1 = 1959-1999; T2 = 2000-2018).ResultsModels for P. cresphontes and associated host plants had high predictive accuracy on spatially-explicit test data (AUC 0.810-0.996). Occurrence data align with model outputs, providing strong evidence for a northward range expansion in the last 19 years (T2) by P. cresphontes. Host plants have shifted in more complex ways, and result in a change in suitable habitat for P. cresphontes in its historic range. P. cresphontes has a northern range which now closely aligns with its most northern host plant - continued expansion northward is unlikely, and historic northern range limits were likely determined by abiotic, not biotic, factors.Main conclusionsBiotic and abiotic factors have driven the rapid northern range expansion in the giant swallowtail butterfly across North America in the last 20 years. A number of bioclimatic variables are correlated with this expansion, notably an increase in mean annual temperature and minimum winter temperature. We predict a slowing of northward range expansion in the next 20-50 years as butterflies are now limited by the range of host plants, rather than abiotic factors.

scholarly journals Predicting open-water thermal regimes of temperate North American lakes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel P. Gillis ◽  
Charles K. Minns ◽  
Brian J. Shuter
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Thermal Habitat ◽  
Linear Mixed Effects ◽  
Lake Temperature ◽  
Regional Estimates ◽  
Good Agreement

Temperature profoundly affects the physical, chemical, and biological attributes of lakes, and is influenced by several abiotic factors. Lake temperature modelling permits regional estimates of seasonal fish thermal habitat availability; however, this requires models that are accurate across large spatial scales. To address this, we fit a semi-mechanistic seasonal temperature-profile model (STM) to 369 morphometrically diverse North American lakes with data spanning 1971-2016. STM with a fixed-depth thermocline formula accurately modelled lake temperature (median pseudo <i>R</i><sup>2</sup>: 0.95, median lake-year-specific RMSE: 1.13 ºC). We used random forests to select candidate predictors, then used linear mixed-effects modelling, based on these predictors, to create empirical equations to predict STM parameters from lake-specific morphometric and climate measures. We tested the accuracy of our equations by predicting thermal profiles in 776 Ontario lakes, finding good agreement between predicted and observed temperatures (median lake-year-specific RMSE: 2.38 ºC) and stratification occurrence (91.7%). These findings enhance our understanding of the factors that influence lake temperatures and can be used to identify lake types and regions that may be especially susceptible to climate change.

scholarly journals Exploring the Interplay Between Local and Regional Drivers of Distribution of a Subterranean Organism

Diversity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Mammola ◽  
Shlomi Aharon ◽  
Merav Seifan ◽  
Yael Lubin ◽  
Efrat Gavish-Regev
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Distribution Models

Caves are excellent model systems to study the effects of abiotic factors on species distributions due to their selective conditions. Different ecological factors have been shown to affect species distribution depending on the scale of analysis, whether regional or local. The interplay between local and regional factors in explaining the spatial distribution of cave-dwelling organisms is poorly understood. Using the troglophilic subterranean spider Artema nephilit (Araneae: Pholcidae) as a model organism, we investigated whether similar environmental predictors drive the species distribution at these two spatial scales. At the local scale, we monitored the abundance of the spiders and measured relevant environmental features in 33 caves along the Jordan Rift Valley. We then extended the analysis to a regional scale, investigating the drivers of the distribution using species distribution models. We found that similar ecological factors determined the distribution at both local and regional scales for A. nephilit. At a local scale, the species was found to preferentially occupy the outermost, illuminated, and warmer sectors of caves. Similarly, mean annual temperature, annual temperature range, and solar radiation were the most important drivers of its regional distribution. By investigating these two spatial scales simultaneously, we showed that it was possible to achieve an in-depth understanding of the environmental conditions that governs subterranean species distribution.

scholarly journals Responses of Vertebrate Wildlife to Oil and Natural Gas Development: Patterns and Frontiers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Chalfoun
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Habitat Type ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Natural Gas Development ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas

Abstract Purpose of Review Anthropogenic activities can lead to the loss, fragmentation, and alteration of wildlife habitats. I reviewed the recent literature (2014–2019) focused on the responses of avian, mammalian, and herpetofaunal species to oil and natural gas development, a widespread and still-expanding land use worldwide. My primary goals were to identify any generalities in species’ responses to development and summarize remaining gaps in knowledge. To do so, I evaluated the directionality of a wide variety of responses in relation to taxon, location, development type, development metric, habitat type, and spatiotemporal aspects. Recent Findings Studies (n = 70) were restricted to the USA and Canada, and taxonomically biased towards birds and mammals. Longer studies, but not those incorporating multiple spatial scales, were more likely to detect significant responses. Negative responses of all types were present in relatively low frequencies across all taxa, locations, development types, and development metrics but were context-dependent. The directionality of responses by the same species often varied across studies or development metrics. Summary The state of knowledge about wildlife responses to oil and natural gas development has developed considerably, though many biases and gaps remain. Studies outside of North America and that focus on herpetofauna are lacking. Tests of mechanistic hypotheses for effects, long-term studies, assessment of response thresholds, and experimental designs that isolate the effects of different stimuli associated with development, remain critical. Moreover, tests of the efficacy of habitat mitigation efforts have been rare. Finally, investigations of the demographic effects of development across the full annual cycle were absent for non-game species and are critical for the estimation of population-level effects.

scholarly journals Repeated surveying over 6 years reveals that fine-scale habitat variables are key to tropical mountain ant assemblage composition and functional diversity

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulalo M. Muluvhahothe ◽  
Grant S. Joseph ◽  
Colleen L. Seymour ◽  
Thinandavha C. Munyai ◽  
Stefan H. Foord
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Functional Diversity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Composition Analysis ◽  
Fine Scale

AbstractHigh-altitude-adapted ectotherms can escape competition from dominant species by tolerating low temperatures at cooler elevations, but climate change is eroding such advantages. Studies evaluating broad-scale impacts of global change for high-altitude organisms often overlook the mitigating role of biotic factors. Yet, at fine spatial-scales, vegetation-associated microclimates provide refuges from climatic extremes. Using one of the largest standardised data sets collected to date, we tested how ant species composition and functional diversity (i.e., the range and value of species traits found within assemblages) respond to large-scale abiotic factors (altitude, aspect), and fine-scale factors (vegetation, soil structure) along an elevational gradient in tropical Africa. Altitude emerged as the principal factor explaining species composition. Analysis of nestedness and turnover components of beta diversity indicated that ant assemblages are specific to each elevation, so species are not filtered out but replaced with new species as elevation increases. Similarity of assemblages over time (assessed using beta decay) did not change significantly at low and mid elevations but declined at the highest elevations. Assemblages also differed between northern and southern mountain aspects, although at highest elevations, composition was restricted to a set of species found on both aspects. Functional diversity was not explained by large scale variables like elevation, but by factors associated with elevation that operate at fine scales (i.e., temperature and habitat structure). Our findings highlight the significance of fine-scale variables in predicting organisms’ responses to changing temperature, offering management possibilities that might dilute climate change impacts, and caution when predicting assemblage responses using climate models, alone.

scholarly journals An updated understanding of Texas bumble bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) species presence and potential distributions in Texas, USA

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e3612 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica L. Beckham ◽  
Samuel Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
Citizen Science ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bumble Bee ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Species List ◽  
Central Texas ◽  
Declining Species

Texas is the second largest state in the United States of America, and the largest state in the contiguous USA at nearly 700,000 sq. km. Several Texas bumble bee species have shown evidence of declines in portions of their continental ranges, and conservation initiatives targeting these species will be most effective if species distributions are well established. To date, statewide bumble bee distributions for Texas have been inferred primarily from specimen records housed in natural history collections. To improve upon these maps, and help inform conservation decisions, this research aimed to (1) update existing Texas bumble bee presence databases to include recent (2007–2016) data from citizen science repositories and targeted field studies, (2) model statewide species distributions of the most common bumble bee species in Texas using MaxEnt, and (3) identify conservation target areas for the state that are most likely to contain habitat suitable for multiple declining species. The resulting Texas bumble bee database is comprised of 3,580 records, to include previously compiled museum records dating from 1897, recent field survey data, and vetted records from citizen science repositories. These data yielded an updated state species list that includes 11 species, as well as species distribution models (SDMs) for the most common Texas bumble bee species, including two that have shown evidence of range-wide declines: B. fraternus (Smith, 1854) and B. pensylvanicus (DeGeer, 1773). Based on analyses of these models, we have identified conservation priority areas within the Texas Cross Timbers, Texas Blackland Prairies, and East Central Texas Plains ecoregions where suitable habitat for both B. fraternus and B. pensylvanicus are highly likely to co-occur.

Diversity and distribution of Phanaeini (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae) in Mexico

Zootaxa ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 4358 (2) ◽  
pp. 271 ◽  
Author(s):  
VIRIDIANA LIZARDO ◽  
FEDERICO ESCOBAR ◽  
OCTAVIO ROJAS-SOTO
Keyword(s):  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Volcanic Belt ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Biological Databases ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Sierra Madre

In this study, we systematized available distribution data, obtained from biological databases and relevant literature, for Mexican species belonging to the tribe Phanaeini. The main objectives were to provide an overall description of the distribution records in biological collections, to detect potential sampling biases, to describe the seasonality of collections and to obtain species distribution models using the Desktop GARP algorithm. A total of 5,562 records, corresponding to 32 species in Mexico, were compiled, including the recently described Phanaeus zoque Moctezuma & Halffter, 2017. This compilation includes 784 unique collection records at 325 localities. These records were mainly distributed along the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, the Sierra Madre Oriental and Sierra Madre Occidental mountain ranges and throughout the states of Chiapas and Veracruz. The Mexican High Plateau, the state of Tlaxcala and the Yucatan Peninsula are lacking in records. Distribution maps were created for species of three genera (Phanaeus MacLeay, 1819, Coprophanaeus Olsoufieff, 1924, and Sulcophanaeus Olsoufieff, 1924) and for 29 species present in Mexico. These species distributions are largely delimited by geomorphological features and vegetation types and coincide with expert descriptions of this tribe; some species show expanded distribution ranges. These maps provide a starting point for further analyses, the planning of future field studies, and the verification of possible new species in the Mexican territory. 

scholarly journals Multi-scale data on intertidal macrobenthic biodiversity and environmental features in three New Zealand harbours

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casper Kraan ◽  
Barry L. Greenfield ◽  
Simon F. Thrush
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Spatial Organization ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Sediment Grain Size ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Grain Size Distributions ◽  
Patterns And Processes

Abstract. Understanding how the plants and animals that live in the seafloor vary in their spatial patterns of diversity and abundance is fundamental to gaining insight in the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecosystem functioning in coastal ecosystems, as well as advancing the modelling of species distributions under realistic assumptions. Yet, it is virtually unknown how the relationships between abundance patterns and different biotic and environmental processes change depending on spatial scales, which is mainly due to a lack of data. Within the project Spatial Organization of Species Distributions: Hierarchical and Scale-Dependent Patterns and Processes in Coastal Seascapes at the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand we collected multi-scale and high-resolution data on macrobenthic biodiversity. We found 146 species, i.e. bivalves, polychaetes and crustaceans (> 500 μm) that live hidden in marine sandflats, and collected point measurements of important environmental variables (sediment grain-size distributions, chlorophyll a concentration, and visible sandflat parameters) in three large intertidal Harbours (Kaipara, Tauranga and Manukau). In each Harbour we sampled 400 points for macrobenthic community composition and abundances, as well as the full set of environmental variables. Using an elaborate sampling design, we were able to cover scales from 30 centimetres to a maximal extent of 1 km. All data and extensive metadata are available from the data publisher PANGAEA via the persistent identifier https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.903448.

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