scholarly journals Believing in one's power: a counterfactual heuristic for goal-directed control

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerian Chambon ◽  
Heloise Thero ◽  
Charles Findling ◽  
Etienne Koechlin
Keyword(s):  
Causal Power ◽  
Specific Model ◽  
Task Environment ◽  
Illusory Control ◽  
Difference Making ◽  
Current Action ◽  
Attribution Biases ◽  
The World ◽  
Relative Divergence ◽  
External Causes

Most people envision themselves as operant agents endowed with the capacity to bring about changes in the outside world. This ability to monitor one's own causal power has long been suggested to rest upon a specific model of causal inference, i.e., a model of how our actions causally relate to their consequences. What this model is and how it may explain departures from optimal inference, e.g., illusory control and self-attribution biases, are still conjecture. To address this question, we designed a series of novel experiments requiring participants to continuously monitor their causal influence over the task environment by discriminating changes that were caused by their own actions from changes that were not. Comparing different models of choice, we found that participants' behaviour was best explained by a model deriving the consequences of the forgone action from the current action that was taken and assuming relative divergence between both. Importantly, this model agrees with the intuitive way of construing causal power as "difference-making" in which causally efficacious actions are actions that make a difference to the world. We suggest that our model outperformed all competitors because it closely mirrors people's belief in their causal power - a belief that is well-suited to learning action-outcome associations in controllable environments. We speculate that this belief may be part of the reason why reflecting upon one's own causal power fundamentally differs from reasoning about external causes.

scholarly journals Disability as a result of craniocerebral trauma in Russia: actuality and forecasts

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Ilya V. Borisov ◽  
Valeriya A. Bondar ◽  
M. M. Kanarskiy ◽  
Julia Y. Nekrasova ◽  
Dmitriy S. Yankevich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Traumatic Brain Injury ◽  
Brain Injury ◽  
Head Injuries ◽  
Craniocerebral Trauma ◽  
World Health ◽  
Federal State ◽  
The World ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
External Causes ◽  
Health Organization

According to the World Health Organization, injuries take first place among the causes of death among the population under 40 years of age. In the Russian Federation, in 2019, death from external causes, including injuries, was in third place in all deaths. Among the causes of disability first place. Mortality from severe traumatic brain injury is over 70%. The most common cause of disability and mortality is head injuries. Annually, 1.5 million people die from traumatic brain injury (TBI) in the world, and 2.4 million are disabled. According to the Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution National Institute of Public Health named after N.A. Semashko, the annual damage from the head injury is estimated at 500 billion rubles. This is a serious socio-economic and state problem requiring complex and multidisciplinary intervention.

A Deep Learning Based Methods for Forecasting Gold Price with Respect to Pandemics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahtab Mohtasham Khani ◽  
Sahand Vahidnia ◽  
Alireza Abbasi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Specific Model ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Market Values ◽  
The World ◽  
Proper Estimation ◽  
Validation Set

Abstract The spread of COVID-19 in the world had a devastating impact on the world economy, trade relations, and globalization. As the pandemic advances and new potential pandemics are on the horizon, a precise analysis of recent fluctuations of trade becomes necessary for international decisions and controlling the world in similar crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic made a new pattern of trade in the world and affected how businesses work and trade with each other. It means that every potential pandemic or any unprecedented event in the world can change the market rules. This research develops a novel model to have a proper estimation of the stock market values with respect to COVID-19 dataset using long short-term memory networks (LSTM).The nature of the features in each pandemic is totally different, thus, prediction results for a pandemic by a specific model cannot be applied to other pandemics. Hence, recognising and extracting the features which affect the pandemic is in the highest priorities. In this study, we develop a framework, providing a better understanding of the features and feature selection. This study is based on a preliminary analysis of such features for enhancing forecasting models' performance against fluctuations in the market.Our forecasts are based on the market value data and COVID-19 pandemic daily time-series data (i.e. the number of new cases). In this study, we selected Gold price as a base for our forecasting task which can be replaced by any other markets. We have applied Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) LSTM, Vector Out-put Sequence LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM, and Encoder-Decoder LSTM on our dataset and our results achieved an MSE of 6.0e-4, 8.0e-4, and 2.0e-3 on the validation set respectfully for one day, two days, and 30 days predictions in advance which is outperforming other proposed method in the literature.

Marriage Data as Indicators of Urban Prosperity

Urban History ◽  
1978 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 68-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Brown
Keyword(s):  
Annual Report ◽  
Money Market ◽  
The Other ◽  
Close Connection ◽  
Registrar General ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
Great Body ◽  
External Causes ◽  
The One

‘The number of marriages in a nation perhaps fluctuates independently of external causes, but it is a fair deduction from the facts, that the Marriage Returns in England point out periods of prosperity little less distinctly than the funds measure the hopes and fears of the money market. If the one is the barometer of credit, the other is the barometer of prosperity, present in part, but future, expected, anticipated, in still greater part.’ This view was expressed by George Graham, the Registrar-General, in his 8th Annual Report for 1845, published in 1848. He argued that the fluctuatiòns in the marriages of a country expressed the views which the great body of the people took of their prospects in the world and noted that the fluctuation could be clearly seen in the towns even when the variations of the annual marriage totals were not considerable in the kingdom as a whole. D. V. Glass, in his study of marriage frequency and economic fluctuations also found that ‘the whole period, 1856 to 1932, showed a close connection between marriage and prosperity’.

scholarly journals A Deep Learning Based Method for Forecasting Gold Price with Respect to Pandemics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahtab Mohtasham Khani ◽  
Sahand Vahidnia ◽  
Alireza Abbasi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Specific Model ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Market Values ◽  
The World ◽  
Proper Estimation ◽  
Validation Set

Abstract The spread of COVID-19 in the world had a devastating impact on the world economy, trade relations, and globalization. As the pandemic advances and new potential pandemics are on the horizon, a precise analysis of recent fluctuations of trade becomes necessary for international decisions and controlling the world in a similar crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic made a new pattern of trade in the world and affected how businesses work and trade with each other. It means that every potential pandemic or any unprecedented event in the world can change the market rules. This research develops a novel model to have a proper estimation of the stock market values with respect to the COVID-19 dataset using long short-term memory networks (LSTM).The nature of the features in each pandemic is totally different, thus, prediction results for a pandemic by a specific model cannot be applied to other pandemics. Hence, recognizing and extracting the features which affect the pandemic is the highest priority. In this study, we develop a framework, providing a better understanding of the features and feature selection. This study is based on a preliminary analysis of such features for enhancing forecasting models' performance against fluctuations in the market.Our forecasts are based on the market value data and COVID-19 pandemic daily time-series data (i.e. the number of new cases). In this study, we selected Gold price as a base for our forecasting task which can be replaced by any other markets. We have applied Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) LSTM, Vector Output Sequence LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM, and Encoder-Decoder LSTM on our dataset, and our results achieved an MSE of 6.0e-4, 8.0e-4, and 2.0e-3 on the validation set respectfully for one day, two days, and 30 days predictions in advance which are outperforming other proposed method in the literature.

Later Malebranche

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Ott
Keyword(s):  
Causal Power ◽  
Causal Connection ◽  
George Berkeley ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
The World ◽  
Its Regions

This chapter looks at two of Malebranche’s later innovations. I argue that the first (imbuing ideas with causal power) is of no help in explaining perception, for a causal connection is insufficiently fine-grained. The doctrine of intelligible extension exacerbates these problems, since it is uniform; any differences among its ‘regions’ is due to the activity of human minds. The chapter shows that Malebranche’s later work, in his exchanges with Arnauld and Régis, departs from the entire Cartesian picture. Malebranche’s subject does not use an idea to think about the world of extension, for the simple reason that intelligible extension is not a Cartesian idea and plays none of the roles the Cartesians assign to it. Intelligible extension is not a representation; it is not ‘of’ anything. The chapter concludes by arguing that Malebranche’s ‘flattening’ of ideas influenced George Berkeley, who also denies that the immediate objects of experience are representations.

The crises and economic cycles : الأزمات والدورات الاقتصادية

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khaldoun Abdul Samad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
The World ◽  
Modern Economic ◽  
External Causes

      The study aimed to identify concept of sessions and modern economic cycles and crises, which are presented in the fluctuations in the direction of macroeconomic variables such as total output and employment, inflation, deflation, unemployment, and frequency which may be regular or irregular. And the study aimed to identify the types and stages of economic cycles and their interpretations, in addition to addressing the economic crisis and determining the types, origins and its relationship with economic cycles. Descriptive study focused on previous studies exploring the correlation between cycles and economic crises. Study concluded internal and external causes of economic crises in-relation to economic cycles, and the modern economic crises has an effort to affect the world, especially in the context of increasing financial integration.

To Err in their Ways: The Attribution Biases of the New Atheists

2010 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 573-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amarnath Amarasingam
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Intergroup Relations ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Fundamental Attribution Error ◽  
Daniel Dennett ◽  
Richard Dawkins ◽  
Attribution Biases ◽  
The World ◽  
New Atheism ◽  
Psychological Studies

The term ‘‘new atheism’’ has been given to the recent barrage of anti-religion and anti-God books written by Richard Dawkins (2006), Sam Harris (2004, 2008), Christopher Hitchens (2007), Daniel Dennett (2006), and others. This paper contends that one of the fundamental arguments put forth by the new atheists — that religion poisons everything or that religion is responsible for much of the evil in the world — falls victim to one of the best established theories of interpersonal and intergroup relations in social psychology: the fundamental attribution error. Insights gleaned from social psychology are especially useful for critiquing the new atheism. Instead of simply arguing that the new atheists ‘‘over-generalize,’’ social psychological studies on the nature of individual and group attribution provide the tools needed to launch a more substantive critique.

scholarly journals Morbimortalidade por causas externas – acidentes e violência no município de Porto Velho, Rondônia

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 119-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Inês Ferreira Miranda ◽  
Rosilâine Keffer Delfino ◽  
Quéren Hapuque Carvalho ◽  
Caire Cilene Pereira Pinto ◽  
Mirlene Conceição Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Public Health Care ◽  
Network Services ◽  
The Public ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
The World ◽  
External Causes ◽  
The City ◽  
Porto Velho

As violências e os acidentes por causas externas representam modernas epidemias que assolam países do mundo inteiro, inclusive o Brasil. O trabalho objetivou analisar os casos de acidentes e violências atendidos na rede de assistência à saúde no município de Porto Velho. Trata-se de uma pesquisa quantitativa retrospectiva documental, na qual foram avaliados os prontuários dos serviços da rede. A análise estatística foi realizada no programa Epi-info 3.5.1. Os resultados identificaram 1.515 casos de acidentes e violência. Desses, 1.200 (79,2%) são de acidentes e 315 (20,8%), de violência. A idade média da população foi de 27,71 anos. O estudo trouxe uma descrição do fenômeno e também revelou a fragilidade da vigilância em saúde.Descritores: Acidentes, Violência, Serviço de Saúde e Morbimortalidade.Morbidity and Mortality from external causes – accidents and violence in Porto Velho, RondôniaThe violence and accidents due to external causes represent modern epidemics affecting countries around the world, including Brazil. The study aimed to analyze the cases of accidents and violence identified in the public health care in the city of Porto Velho. That is a documentary quantitative and retrospective research, in which we evaluated the records of network services. Statistical analysis was performed using Epi Info 3.5.1. Results identified 1515 cases of accidents and violence. Of these 1200 (79.20%) are from accidents and 315 (20.8%), violence. The median age was 27.71 years. The study brought a description of the phenomenon and also revealed the fragility of Health Surveillance.Descriptors: Accidents, Violence, Department of Health and Morbidity.La morbilidad y la mortalidad por causas externas – accidentes y la violencia en Porto Velho, RondôniaLa violencia y los accidentes por causas externas representan las epidemias modernas que afectan a países de todo el mundo, incluyendo Brasil. El estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar los casos de accidentes y la violencia identificadas en el cuidado de la salud pública en la ciudad de Porto Velho.Esta es una investigación documental retrospectiva cuantitativos, en los que se evaluaron los registros de los servicios de red. El análisis estadístico se realizó con Epi Info 3.5.1. Los resultados identificaron 1.515 casos de accidentes y la violencia. De ellos 1.200 (79.20%) son por accidentes y 315 (20,8%), la violencia. La edad media fue de 27,71 años. El estudio trajo una descripción del fenómeno y también reveló la fragilidad de Vigilancia de la Salud.Descriptores: Accidentes, Violencia, Departamento de Salud y la Morbilidad.

scholarly journals A Comparative Study of Ngapsahi Analysis and Tagmemic Analysis on Arabic Texts in Kitab Kuning

ALSINATUNA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Muhamad Jaeni
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Study ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Specific Model ◽  
Effective Model ◽  
Arabic Text ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
The World ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Analysis System

There are various traditions used in interpreting a book or kitab. One of the models of interpreting kitab kuning used in pesantren is Ngapsahi. This is a creative and effective model using grammatical markers. Actually, the analysis of the grammatical markers has been used by western linguists, although it only emphasizes on the analysis of the  structural latin texts, such as English, France, Indonesian, and other latin languages. This analysis model has not been implemented in Arabic texts. Yet, the western linguists believe that this tradition is universal which can be implemented in any language in the world. This study focuses on creating Ngapsahi analysis system and comparing it with Tagmemic analysis in kitab kuning. There are three steps used in the research method including finding data and sources; analyzing the data and the sources; and drawing conclusion. The results of this study are: First, Tagmemic analysis can be implemented in Arabic text inspite of the uncomplete dimensions covered by this analysis. Second, Ngapsahi analysis model is a specific model created by pesantren’s priest. Third, there is a similarity between Tagmemic and Ngapsahi analyses, especially which is in the term of linguistic dimensions (Slot, Class, Role, Cohesion) filled by the grammatical markers. The difference between those analyses is the more complete dimensions of Ngapsahi analysis than Tagmemic’s because of the complexity and compliteness of Arabic text system.

scholarly journals Mortality in Moscow and other megacities of the world: similarities and differences

2017 ◽  
pp. 79-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeny Andreev ◽  
Ekaterina Kvasha ◽  
Tatiana Kharkova
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Mortality Level ◽  
The World ◽  
External Causes ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Circulatory Diseases

This paper is devoted to the comparison of mortality by cause of death in Moscow and other megacities of the world since 1990. The selection of megacities was determined by the availability of detailed mortality data in the selected period. The objects of our comparison are data for Berlin, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, New York, Singapore, St. Petersburg, and Tokyo. Mortality from major groups of causes of death are considered, including cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, external causes, diseases of the respiratory and digestive systems, infections and some others. The analysis uses standardised mortality rates by cause of death. The mortality level in Moscow is significantly lower than in the majority of regions of Russia, but is still substantially higher than in foreign megacities. Due to a big lag at the beginning of the period, the mortality level in Moscow nowadays is higher than in all selected foreign megalopolises in the year 2000. Where Moscow’s mortality level lags most behind others is in mortality from circulatory diseases and external causes. Moscow's successes in reducing mortality in 2000-2014 are very impressive. However, it is difficult to predict how events will unfold in the deteriorating economic situation.

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