scholarly journals Invasive aliens threatened with native extinction: examining best practice for species translocations under climate change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Egan ◽  
David Bourke ◽  
Wilfried Thuiller ◽  
Maude E.A. Baudraz ◽  
Damien Georges ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Species Conservation ◽  
Native Range ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Dynamic Simulations ◽  
Iberian Range ◽  
Invasive Capacity ◽  
Nw Europe

AbstractAimTranslocation remains a controversial strategy in species conservation. Here, we utilise the unusual scenario of invasive alien species (IAS) threatened with extinction in their native range to address key challenges in deciding ‘whether’, ‘where’, and ‘when’ to implement translocation, and how best to approach conservation under seemingly contradictory circumstances.LocationIberian Peninsula, NW EuropeMethodsRhododendron ponticum ssp. baeticum was selected as a model IAS for case study analysis. We used species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with dynamic simulations of migration to assess: 1. the extinction risk posed to this species in its native Iberian range under climate change; 2. whether SDMs calibrated on the native range (replicating typical translocation planning) could predict invasive capacity in NW Europe; and 3. the extent to which recommended biogeographical constrains on translocations may limit available options. Insights gained on the above were used to build and test a generic decision framework for translocation, based on robust identification of microrefugia.ResultsOur findings suggest a high likelihood of climate-induced extinction for R.p. ssp. baeticum in its native range. Notably, SDMs completely failed to predict invasive capacity in NW Europe. However, application of our framework was successful in identifying sites more proximate to the native range – albeit outside this species’ current biogeographic region – potentially suited to translocation.Main conclusionsThe framework here developed can be used to guide translocation of climate-endangered species in a spatially and temporally precise manner. However, we caution that use of SDMs can possess short-comings in failing to capture a full picture of sites suited to translation, and in risk assessment of the capacity of translocated taxa to form invasive species. Strict biogeographic constraints to the selection of translocation sites can evidently help to safeguard against invasions, but may also severely hinder the options available to avert climate-induced extinctions.

scholarly journals Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽  
Walaa A. Hassan ◽  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
Kaiwen Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Conservation Assessment ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Area Of Occupancy ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

scholarly journals The Importance of Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability to Address Species Conservation

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 450-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen E. Bagne ◽  
Megan M. Friggens ◽  
Sharon J. Coe ◽  
Deborah M. Finch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Species Conservation ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Species At Risk ◽  
Terrestrial Vertebrates ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Risk Of Extinction

Abstract Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of “special status” species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of species at risk of extinction. We compared climate change vulnerability and lists of special status species to examine the adequacy of current lists to represent species at risk of extinction in the coming decades. The comparison was made for terrestrial vertebrates in a regionally important management area of the southwestern United States. Many species not listed as special status were vulnerable to increased extinction risk with climate change. Overall, 74% of vulnerable species were not included in lists of special status and omissions were greatest for birds and reptiles. Most special status species were identified as additionally vulnerable to climate change impacts and there was little evidence to indicate the outlook for these species might improve with climate change, which suggests that existing conservation efforts will need to be intensified. Current special status lists encompassed climate change vulnerability best if climate change was expected to exacerbate current threats, such as the loss of wetlands, but often overlooked climate-driven threats, such as exceeding physiological thresholds.

scholarly journals Do climate envelope models transfer? A manipulative test using dung beetle introductions

2009 ◽  
Vol 276 (1661) ◽  
pp. 1449-1457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard P Duncan ◽  
Phillip Cassey ◽  
Tim M Blackburn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Resource Limitation ◽  
Dispersal Limitation ◽  
Dung Beetle ◽  
Native Range ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Introduced Range ◽  
Climate Envelope ◽  
The Impact

Climate envelope models (CEMs) are widely used to forecast future shifts in species ranges under climate change, but these models are rarely validated against independent data, and their fundamental assumption that climate limits species distributions is rarely tested. Here, we use the data on the introduction of five South African dung beetle species to Australia to test whether CEMs developed in the native range can predict distribution in the introduced range, where the confounding effects of dispersal limitation, resource limitation and the impact of natural enemies have been removed, leaving climate as the dominant constraint. For two of the five species, models developed in the native range predict distribution in the introduced range about as well as models developed in the introduced range where we know climate limits distribution. For the remaining three species, models developed in the native range perform poorly, implying that non-climatic factors limit the native distribution of these species and need to be accounted for in species distribution models. Quantifying relevant non-climatic factors and their likely interactions with climatic variables for forecasting range shifts under climate change remains a challenging task.

Spatial modeling of the ecological niche of Pinus greggii Engelm (Pinaceae): A species conservation proposal in Mexico

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALDO Rafael MARTINEZ ◽  
Jose Villanueva Diaz ◽  
Ulises Manzanilla-Quiñones ◽  
Jorge Luis Becerra-López ◽  
José Antonio Hernández-Herrera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Species Conservation ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Pinus Greggii

Abstract Background Studies in Mexico have shown that the genus Pine has always been under evolutionary changes, however currently they have accelerated as a result of human activities. Pinus greggii is a species restricted by particular environmental conditions of the Sierra Madre Occidental, which is of socio-economic importance in terms of wood production and provides environmental services to the ecosystem. Species distribution models are a relevant geospatial tool in decision making, and notable applications exist such as identifying areas of distribution and zones susceptible to climate change. The objectives of this study were: 1) model and quantify the current distribution, and possible future distribution under four scenarios of climate change; 2) identify the most relevant environmental variables that drive changes in distribution; and 3) to propose adequate zones for the species’ conservation in Mexico. Methods 438 records of Pinus greggii from several national and international databases were obtained, and were cleaned up to get rid of duplicates and overestimations in the models. Climatic, edaphic, and topographic variables were used and were generated 100 distribution models for current and future scenarios with Maxent software. Results The model one under replicated of crossvalidation had the best statistic, with an area under the curve of 0.88 and 0.93 for model training and validation, respectively, a partial ROC of 1.94, and a significant Z test (p < 0.01). The current estimated area of Pinus greggii in Mexico was 617,706.04 ha and the most important environmental variables for current distribution were the annual mean temperature, mean temperature of coldest quarter, and slope. For the 2041–2060 models, annual mean temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, and slope were most important. The future models (2041–2060) predict a decrease in suitable habitat for the species from 48,403.85 (7.8%; HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 model) to 134,680.17 ha (21.8%; CNRM-CM5 RCP 4.5). Conclusions The spatial modeling of current and future conditions of the ecological niche of Pinus greggii in this study allows the proposal of two zones for conservation purpose and in situ restoration for the species in northeastern (Nuevo Leon) and central (Hidalgo) Mexico.

scholarly journals A Robust Prediction Model for Species Distribution Using Bagging Ensembles with Deep Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1495
Author(s):  
Jehyeok Rew ◽  
Yongjang Cho ◽  
Eenjun Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Robust Prediction

Species distribution models have been used for various purposes, such as conserving species, discovering potential habitats, and obtaining evolutionary insights by predicting species occurrence. Many statistical and machine-learning-based approaches have been proposed to construct effective species distribution models, but with limited success due to spatial biases in presences and imbalanced presence-absences. We propose a novel species distribution model to address these problems based on bootstrap aggregating (bagging) ensembles of deep neural networks (DNNs). We first generate bootstraps considering presence-absence data on spatial balance to alleviate the bias problem. Then we construct DNNs using environmental data from presence and absence locations, and finally combine these into an ensemble model using three voting methods to improve prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments verified the proposed model’s effectiveness for species in South Korea using crowdsourced observations that have spatial biases. The proposed model achieved more accurate and robust prediction results than the current best practice models.

scholarly journals Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Clark ◽  
Robert Andrus ◽  
Melaine Aubry-Kientz ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Michal Bogdziewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Condition ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The West ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Species Abundances ◽  
Meta Analyses

AbstractIndirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

Climate Change May Cause Shifts in Growth and Instantaneous Natural Mortality of American Shad Throughout Their Native Range

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin K. Gilligan‐Lunda ◽  
Daniel S. Stich ◽  
Katherine E. Mills ◽  
Michael M. Bailey ◽  
Joseph D. Zydlewski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
American Shad ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Native Range

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

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