scholarly journals Percentage of reported Covid-19 cases in Colombia: Estimating the true scale of the pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolás Parra ◽  
Vladimir Vargas-Calderón ◽  
Juan Sebastián Flórez ◽  
Leonel Ardila ◽  
Carlos Viviescas
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
First Case ◽  
Under Sampling ◽  
Real Time Estimation ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Limited Testing

Since March 6, when Colombia confirmed its first case of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), the country healthcare system, with a limited testing capability, has struggled to monitor and report current cases. At the outbreak of a virus, data on cases is sparse and commonly severe cases, with a higher probability of a fatal resolution, are detected at a higher rate than mild cases. In addition, in an under-sampling situation, the number of total cases is under-estimated leading to a biased case fatality rate estimation, most likely inflating the virus mortality. Real time estimation of case fatality ratio can also be biased downwards by overlooking the delay between symptoms onset to death. In this communication, using reported data from Instituto Nacional de Salud up to December 28, we estimate the case fatality rate for Covid-19 in Colombia and some of its regions and cities adjusting for delay from onset to death. We then apply the method proposed by Russell et al., and use our corrected case fatality rate to estimate the percentage of Covid-19 cases reported in Colombia as 42.95% (95% confidence interval: 42.50-43.41), which corresponds to a total of 3'661,621 estimated Covid-19 cases in the country.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Containment Measures to Control the Spread of COVID-19 in North Africa

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Ouail Ouchetto ◽  
Asmaa Drissi Bourhanbour ◽  
Mounir Boumhamdi
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
First Case ◽  
Containment Measures

ABSTRACT Objectives: Since the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, identified in December 2019, in Wuhan in China, the number of cases rapidly increased into a pandemic. Governments worldwide have adopted different strategies and measures to interrupt the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The main objective was to report and evaluate the effectiveness of the adopted measures in North Africa countries. Methods: In these countries, the effective reproductive number R(t), the naïve case fatality rate, and the adjusted case fatality rate were estimated and compared on different dates. Results: The obtained results show that the early strict application of containment measures and confinement could help contain the spread of the epidemic and maintain the number of deaths low. Conclusions: These measures might be useful for other countries that are experiencing the start of local COVID-19 outbreaks. They could also serve to halt the spread of new epidemics or pandemics.

scholarly journals VAKSINASI MASAL COVID-19 DI UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH MATARAM KOTA MATARAM PROVINSI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 713
Author(s):  
Evi Diliana Rospia ◽  
Dwi Kartika Cahyaningtyas ◽  
Desi Rofita ◽  
Cahaya Indah Lestari ◽  
Ni Wayan Ari Adi Putri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
First Case ◽  
Difficulty Breathing ◽  
Health Organization

ABSTRAKNovel coronavirus 2019 atau virus corona sindrom pernafasan akut parah yang disebut COVID-19. Gejala klinis utama yang muncul yaitu demam, batuk dan kesulitan bernapas. World Health Organization (WHO) melaporkan 11.84.226 kasus konfirmasi dengan 545.481 kematian di seluruh dunia (Case Fatality Rate/CFR 4,6%). Di Indonesia kasus meningkat dan menyebar dengan cepat, kasus pertama pada tanggal 2 Maret 2020, pada tanggal 9 Juli 2020 Kementerian Kesehatan melaporkan 70.736 kasus konfirmasi COVID-19 dengan 3.417 kasus meninggal (CFR 4,8%). Kegiatan vaksinasi masal ini bertujuan terbentuknya herd immunity (kekebalan kelompok) dan berkurangnya angka kematian akibat COVID-19 pada masyarakat. Kegiatan vaksinasi masal dilaksanakan di Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram Kota Mataram Nusa Tenggara Barat, dan jenis vaksin yang digunakan pada kegiatan vaksinasi masal ini adalah Sinovac. Jumlah responden yang mengikuti kegiatan ini sebanyak 1.000 orang. Hasil pengabdian didapatkan jumlah yang melakukan vaksinasi sebanyak 1000 orang yang terdiri dari masyarakat umum dan karyawan Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram. Kata kunci: vaksinasi; covid-19; komunitas; indonesia. ABSTRACTNovel coronavirus 2019 or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus called COVID-19. The main symptoms that appear are fever, cough and difficulty breathing. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports 11,84,226 confirmed cases with 545,481 deaths worldwide (Case Fatality Rate/CFR 4.6%) In Indonesia cases are increasing and spreading rapidly, the first case on March 2, 2020, on July 9 2020 The Ministry of Health reported 70,736 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 3,417 deaths (CFR 4.8%). This mass vaccination activity aims to form herd immunity and reduce the death rate due to COVID-19 in the community. The mass vaccination activity was carried out at the Muhammadiyah University of Mataram, and the type of vaccine used in this mass vaccination activity was Sinovac. The number of respondents who participated in this activity was 1,000 people. The results of the service found that the number of people who vaccinated was 1000 people consisting of the general public and employees of the Muhammadiyah University of Mataram. Keywords: vaccination; covid-19; community; indonesia. 

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Oromia Region of Ethiopia: a review of the first 6 months’ surveillance data

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. e046764
Author(s):  
Esayas Kebede Gudina ◽  
Dabesa Gobena ◽  
Tessema Debela ◽  
Daniel Yilma ◽  
Tsinuel Girma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Reverse Transcription Pcr ◽  
First Case ◽  
Targeted Testing ◽  
Community Transmission

IntroductionDespite unrelenting efforts to contain its spread, COVID-19 is still causing unprecedented global crises. Ethiopia reported its first case on 13 March 2020 but has an accelerated case load and geographical distribution recently. In this article, we described the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Oromia Region, the largest and most populous region in Ethiopia, during the early months of the outbreak.MethodsWe analysed data from the COVID-19 surveillance database of the Oromia Regional Health Bureau. We included all reverse transcription-PCR-confirmed cases reported from the region between 13 March and 13 September 2020.ResultsCOVID-19 was confirmed in 8955 (5.5%) of 164 206 tested individuals. The test positivity rate increased from an average of 1.0% in the first 3 months to 6.3% in August and September. About 70% (6230) of the cases were men; the mean age was 30.0 years (SD=13.3), and 90.5% were <50 years of age. Only 64 (0.7%) of the cases had symptoms at diagnosis. Cough was the most common among symptomatic cases reported in 48 (75.0%), while fever was the least. Overall, 4346 (48.5%) have recovered from the virus; and a total of 52 deaths were reported with a case fatality rate of 1.2%. However, we should interpret the reported case fatality rate cautiously since in 44 (84.6%) of those reported as COVID-19 death, the virus was detected from dead bodies.ConclusionDespite the steady increase in the number of reported COVID-19 cases, Ethiopia has so far avoided the feared catastrophe from the pandemic due to the milder and asymptomatic nature of the disease. However, with the current pattern of widespread community transmission, the danger posed by the pandemic remains real. Thus, the country should focus on averting COVID-19-related humanitarian crisis through strengthening COVID-19 surveillance and targeted testing for the most vulnerable groups.

scholarly journals Forecasting the peak of novel coronavirus disease in Egypt using current confirmed cases and deaths

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wagida A. Anwar ◽  
Amany Mokhtar
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
First Case ◽  
Online Tools ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

AbstractThe first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Egypt was reported on 14 February 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased daily. The purpose of this study is to describe the current situation of Covid-19 in Egypt and to predict the expected timing of the peak of this epidemic using current confirmed cases and deaths. We used one of the online tools; the Epidemic Calculator that utilizes, the well-known SEIR compartmental model. We utilized the daily reports published by the Egyptian Ministry of Health & Population from 14 February to 11 May 2020. Given the highest calculated case fatality rate (7.7%), the number of hospitalized individuals is expected to peak in the middle of June with a peak of hospitalized cases of 20,126 individuals and total expected deaths 12,303. We recommend strengthening of the Egyptian preventive and control measures so as to decrease the CFR and the number of cases to the least possible as we approach the epidemic peak. It is most important that appropriate quarantine measures are retained., the quarantine measures should not be relaxed before the end of June, 2020.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic in India: A Comparison of pandemic pattern in Selected States

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 856-864
Author(s):  
Rama Shankar Rath ◽  
Anand Mohan Dixit ◽  
Anil Ramesh Koparkar ◽  
Pradip Kharya ◽  
Hari Shanker Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Strong Law ◽  
Preparedness Plan ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
First Case

The COVID-19 pandemic currently expanded its roots to the 206 countries in the world. The morbidity and mortality are not only threat to humans but also its impact on economy is indirectly affecting us. The current review was done to find trend in various states of India. Data was collected from Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and descriptive analysis of the distribution of COVID-19 cases in different states of India. First case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in southern most state Kerala and after that it has spread to all other states but situations are more worsen in states with high international migration. Maharashtra is now the most affected state followed by Delhi. Among epidemic curve of all these states, Maharashtra has rapidly growing epidemic curve with highest slope, whereas Kerala has the lowest. When we compared the day wise cumulative case fatality rate, it was found that the case fatality rate of the states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan showed decrease in the case fatality rate over the period. Population density is also one of the key determinants of social interaction and thus the spread of disease specifically in communicable diseases. Government of India had taken many strong initiatives e.g. 40 days nation-wide lockdown, thermal screening at airport, announcement of relief packages for poor and quarantine of outsiders but still there are many missed opportunities like, early stoppage of international traffic, compulsory quarantine for all international travellers, better contact tracing, strong law and order and better preparedness plan.

scholarly journals Analysis of Covid - 19 Situations in Davanagere District, Karnataka

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 01-08
Author(s):  
Gouri Sakre ◽  
Gulappa Devagappanavar
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Severe Illness ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
First Case ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background: According to CDC, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by a new coronavirus which was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Although most people who have COVID-19 have mild symptoms, it can also cause severe illness and even death. Some groups, including older adults and people who have certain underlying medical conditions, are at increased risk of severe illness. On February 11, 2020, the World Health Organization announced an official name for the disease that is causing the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak. The new name of this disease is coronavirus disease 2019, abbreviated as COVID-19. Objectives: Analysis of COVID 19 data in the Davanagere district from April 2020 to August 2020. Methods: In this current study the secondary data is obtained from the Official Website of Government of Karnataka, Covid-19 Informational Portal – Media Bulletin. By using different indicators Davanagere district covid data is further used to calculate Attack rate, Case fatality rate and complete case fatality rate. Results: In this study it is found that, in the month of April there were no covid positive cases reported till fourth week of month, by fourth week, total two positive cases were reported the first case being encountered on 28th April 2020, with discharge of those patient in the end of the month. The attack rate has steeped up from 8.018 to 355.74 per one lakh population i.e. about 44 times more than initial months of pandemic. The strict preventive measures were followed by public and government too. So the prevalence rate is less in May, June and went on increasing once the unlocking is done. In summer the total positive cases steeping up from 2 cases to 154 total positive cases for the month April to May, and there is steady in rise of total positive cases for the month June with total positive cases of 153. In the beginning of summer there were fewer cases as pandemic was just begun and chances of transmission were very less. As monsoon appeared in June last week there is surge in total positive cases. With added burden of Unlock 1.0 phase, as public started moving out from home without any freak of infection. Conclusion: In this study it is found that due to strict nationwide lockdown and social distancing, hygiene practices among the Davanagere people has made it possible to restrict the spread of covid among the people, although the international immigration of Davanagere residents lead to transmission of infection. Further removal of lockdown after three months has lead to three fold spread of disease. Also there is rise in death rate, attack rate and case fatality in Davanagere district.

scholarly journals Estimating the cure rate and case fatality rate of the ongoing epidemic COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Diao ◽  
Xiaoyun Liu ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Xiaofei Zeng ◽  
Chen Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Cure Rate ◽  
Public Event ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus COVID-19 in Wuhan at the end of 2019 has become an urgent public event of worldwide concern. However, due to the changing data of the epidemic, there is no scientific estimate of the cure rate and case fatality rate of the epidemic. This study proposes a method to estimate the cure rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19. The ratio of cumulative discharges on a given day to the sum of cumulative discharges on a given day and cumulative deaths before j days is used to estimate the cure rate. Moreover, the case fatality ratio can also be estimated. After simulation calculations, j is statistically appropriate when it is 8-10, and it is also clinically appropriate. When j is 9, based on the available data, it is inferred that the cure rate of this epidemic is about 93% and the case fatality rate is about 7%. This method of estimating the cure rate can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment in different medical schemes and different regions, and has great value and significance for decision-making in the epidemic.

scholarly journals Effects of Air Temperature on COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-63
Author(s):  
Anna Sączewska-Piotrowska ◽  
Damian Piotrowski
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The aim of this study was to assess the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 by performing a meta-analysis according to the air temperature and to determine if the temperature modifies the pandemic duration to the peak day for CFR of the COVID-19. A novel coronavirus spread began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and half a year after, more than 9 million total cases were confirmed worldwide. Therefore, knowing the conditions favorable for the spread of the virus (including weather conditions) is crucial from the perspective of the entire population. Using information from the World Health Organization, subgroup meta-analysis by temperature was performed. Survival analysis using the Kaplan-Meier estimates and the Cox proportional hazards models was conducted. Based on the conducted analysis we can conclude that in countries with temperature equal or lower than 14.8°C the pooled CFR of COVID-19 is higher than in countries with tempera ture greater than 14.8°C. Besides, in countries with lower temperature the peak of the CFR appears after a longer time from the first case of the novel coronavirus than in countries with higher temperature.

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