scholarly journals Real-Time Estimation of the Case Fatality Ratio and Risk Factors of Death

Author(s):  
Hiroshi Nishiura
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolás Parra ◽  
Vladimir Vargas-Calderón ◽  
Juan Sebastián Flórez ◽  
Leonel Ardila ◽  
Carlos Viviescas

Since March 6, when Colombia confirmed its first case of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), the country healthcare system, with a limited testing capability, has struggled to monitor and report current cases. At the outbreak of a virus, data on cases is sparse and commonly severe cases, with a higher probability of a fatal resolution, are detected at a higher rate than mild cases. In addition, in an under-sampling situation, the number of total cases is under-estimated leading to a biased case fatality rate estimation, most likely inflating the virus mortality. Real time estimation of case fatality ratio can also be biased downwards by overlooking the delay between symptoms onset to death. In this communication, using reported data from Instituto Nacional de Salud up to December 28, we estimate the case fatality rate for Covid-19 in Colombia and some of its regions and cities adjusting for delay from onset to death. We then apply the method proposed by Russell et al., and use our corrected case fatality rate to estimate the percentage of Covid-19 cases reported in Colombia as 42.95% (95% confidence interval: 42.50-43.41), which corresponds to a total of 3'661,621 estimated Covid-19 cases in the country.


2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (4) ◽  
pp. 61-65
Author(s):  
M. V. Abramchuk ◽  
R. V. Pechenko ◽  
K. A. Nuzhdin ◽  
V. M. Musalimov

A reciprocating friction machine Tribal-T intended for automated quality control of the rubbing surfaces of tribopairs is described. The distinctive feature of the machine consists in implementation of the forced relative motion due to the frictional interaction of the rubbing surfaces fixed on the drive and conjugate platforms. Continuous processing of the signals from displacement sensors is carried out under conditions of continuous recording of mutual displacements of loaded tribopairs using classical approaches of the theory of automatic control to identify the tribological characteristics. The machine provides consistent visual real time monitoring of the parameters. The MATLAB based computer technologies are actively used in data processing. The calculated tribological characteristics of materials, i.e., the dynamic friction coefficient, damping coefficient and measure of the surface roughness, are presented. The tests revealed that a Tribal-T reciprocating friction machine is effective for real-time study of the aforementioned tribological characteristics of materials and can be used for monitoring of the condition of tribo-nodes of machines and mechanisms.


2013 ◽  
Vol 39 (10) ◽  
pp. 1722
Author(s):  
Zhao-Wei SUN ◽  
Wei-Chao ZHONG ◽  
Shi-Jie ZHANG ◽  
Jian ZHANG

2021 ◽  
Vol 602 ◽  
pp. 120624
Author(s):  
Reza Kamyar ◽  
David Lauri Pla ◽  
Anas Husain ◽  
Giuseppe Cogoni ◽  
Zilong Wang

IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Ujjwol Tamrakar ◽  
David A. Copp ◽  
Tu Nguyen ◽  
Timothy M. Hansen ◽  
Reinaldo Tonkoski

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (15) ◽  
pp. 1062-1067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Sharifzadeh ◽  
Mario Pisaturo ◽  
Arash Farnam ◽  
Adolfo Senatore

2010 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoichi SUGIYAMA ◽  
Hiroshi MATSUBARA ◽  
Shuichi MYOJO ◽  
Kazuki TAMURA ◽  
Naoya OZAKI

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