scholarly journals Application of COVID-19 pneumonia diffusion data to predict epidemic situation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wu zhenguo
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Current Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Director General ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate novel coronavirus pneumonia cases by establishing the mathematical model of the number of confirmed cases daily, and to assess the current situation and development of the epidemic situation, so as to provide a digital basis for decision-making.MethodsThe number of newly confirmed covid-19 cases per day was taken as the research object, and the seven-day average value (M) and the sequential value (R) of M were calculated to study the occurrence and development of covid-19 epidemic through the analysis of charts and data.ResultsM reflected the current situation of epidemic development; R reflected the current level of infection and the trend of epidemic development.ConclusionThe current data can be used to evaluate the number of people who have been infected, and when R < 1, the peak of epidemic can be predicted.PrefaceIn December 2019, a number of cases of pneumonia with unknown causes were found in some hospitals in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. On 11 March 2020, the director-general of the world health organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, announced that based on the assessment, WHO believes that the current outbreak of COVID-19 can be called a global pandemic. By early April 2020, there were more than one million confirmed cases worldwide.COVID-19 has developed from sporadic cases to pandemic in a short period of 3 months. The analysis and research of its infectious data will help to prevent and control the next stage of epidemic prevention and other infectious diseases in the future.In this paper, COVID-19 rounded average of seven days (M), and M’s ring ratio (R) are used to predict the current potential patients’ data, and the relative state of epidemic prevention and control is judged through the graphic features and characteristic data, so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control decisions.

To Predict Epidemic Situation: Application of COVID-19 Pneumonia Diffusion Data (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenguo Wu
Keyword(s):  
Current Situation ◽  
Current Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Director General ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Current Outbreak ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND In December 2019, a number of cases of pneumonia with unknown causes were found in some hospitals in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. On 11 March 2020, the director-general of the world health organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, announced that based on the assessment, WHO believes that the current outbreak of COVID-19 can be called a global pandemic. By early April 2020, there were more than one million confirmed cases worldwide. OBJECTIVE To evaluate novel coronavirus pneumonia cases by establishing the mathematical model of the number of confirmed cases daily, and to assess the current situation and development of the epidemic situation, so as to provide a digital basis for decision-making. METHODS The number of newly confirmed covid-19 cases per day was taken as the research object, and the seven-day average value (M) and the sequential value (R) of M were calculated to study the occurrence and development of covid-19 epidemic through the analysis of charts and data. RESULTS M reflected the current situation of epidemic development; R reflected the current level of infection and the trend of epidemic development. CONCLUSIONS The current data can be used to evaluate the number of people who have been infected, and when R < 1, the peak of epidemic can be predicted.

scholarly journals The Online Education Mode and Reopening Plans for Chinese Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Mini Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuanzhen Cen ◽  
Dong Sun ◽  
Ming Rong ◽  
Gusztáv Fekete ◽  
Julien S. Baker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Online Education ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
World Health ◽  
Classroom Teaching ◽  
Full Time ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Recently, an unprecedented coronavirus pandemic has emerged and has spread around the world. The novel coronavirus termed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization has posed a huge threat to human safety and social development. This mini review aimed to summarize the online education mode and plans for schools to resume full-time campus study in China during COVID-19. Chinese schools have made significant contributions to the prevention and control of the transmission of COVID-19 by adopting online learning from home. However, normal opening and classroom teaching have been affected. For education systems at all levels, online education may be an effective way to make up for the lack of classroom teaching during the epidemic. To protect staff and students from COVID-19, the timing of students returning to full-time campus study needs to be considered carefully. Reviewing and summarizing of the Chinese education system's response to the virus would be of great value not only in developing educational policy but also in guiding other countries to formulate educational countermeasures.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction numbers estimation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Cheng ◽  
Zeyi Liu ◽  
Guangquan Cheng ◽  
Jincai Huang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

Abstract From December 31, 2019, a large-scale 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in China. Tracking and analyzing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control for COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control. The number of newly infected cases in 25 China’s worst cities for COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analyzed by using a estimate time-varying reproduction numbers method and a serial correlation method. The results shown that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend as a whole, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities were effective and the risk of infection was decreasing due to their R had dropped below 1 on February 10, 2020 and the average decline of R in the past 5 days was greater than 0, while cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi were still difficult to effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was also greater than 1.

scholarly journals The level of risk, effects response to potential health emergencies, prevention and control method of COVID-19: A systematic review

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Addis Adera Gebru ◽  
Tadesse Birhanu ◽  
Eshetu Wendimu ◽  
Agumas Fentahun Ayalew ◽  
Selamawit Mulat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
World Health ◽  
Potential Health ◽  
Risk Effects ◽  
Online Databases ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Level Of Risk

BACKGROUND: The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 is the major public health burden in the world. The disease and death of the global community from corona virus disaes 19 rapidly increasing from time to time worldwide. However, there was a lack of well-organized information about the level of risk, effects, prevention and control methods of the disease. Therefore the aim of this study was to identify and review a published level of risk, effects response to potential health emergencies, prevention, and control methods of Coronavirus Disease 2019 at the global level. METHODS: A systematic review was performed after literatures were identified by searching the following online databases: medRxiv, Google scholar, PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library with supplementary hand searching of conferences. The online databases contain archives of most English biomedical journals. Scientific papers published online by the Center for Disease Control and the World Health Organization were also included for this analysis. The scientific publications from 1 December, 2019 to 13 April 2020. were included. The ‘COVID-19’, ‘2019 novel coronavirus’, ‘2019-nCoV’, ‘novel coronavirus’, and ‘Pneumonia’ key search terms were used in this review. RESULTS: Twenty published articles with reputable journals met the inclusion criteria, representing 20 articles analyses. From these, 11 (55%) in China and 3 (15%) in United State of America. All the 20 were statistical analyses of individual patient data, while 33 used decision-analytic modeling. The overall structures were most commonly described as being Markov (n= 27) but, the methods were heterogeneous. The World Health Organization was reported that most frequently world communities including health care providers were ‘alive’ or ‘dead’, with COVID-19 related outcomes such as hospitalization and other enclosed

scholarly journals A scoping review of 2019 Novel Coronavirus during the early outbreak period: Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sasmita Poudel Adhikari ◽  
Sha Meng ◽  
Yuju Wu ◽  
Yuping Mao ◽  
Ruixue Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Clinical Manifestation ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
Research Articles ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: The 2019-nCoV has been identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China beginning in December 2019. This epidemic had spread to 19 countries with 11791 confirmed cases, including 213 deaths, as of January 31, 2020. The World Health Organization declared it as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.Methods: A scoping review of 65 research articles published until January 31, 2020 were analyzed and discussed for a better understanding of the epidemiology, causes, clinical diagnosis, prevention and control of this virus. The research domains, publishing dates, journal language, and authors’ affiliations, as well as methodological characteristics were analyzed. All findings and statements that are mentioned regarding the outbreak in this review are based on published information as listed in the references.Results: Most of the publications were in English language (89.23%). The largest proportion of articles were related to causes (38.46%) and majority (67.69%), and were published by Chinese scholars. Research articles initially focused on causes while there was an increase of the articles related to prevention and control over time. Studies thus far have shown origination in connection to a seafood market in Wuhan, but specific animal association has not been confirmed. The reported symptoms include fever, cough, fatigue, pneumonia, headache, diarrhea, hemoptysis, and dyspnea. Preventive measures such as masks, hand hygiene practices, avoidance of public contact, case detection, contact tracing, and quarantines are being discussed for reducing the transmission. To date, no specific antiviral treatment is proven effective, hence, infected people primarily rely on symptomatic treatment and supportive care. Conclusions: There has been a rapid surge in research in response to the outbreak of 2019-nCoV. During this early period, published research primarily explored the epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, as well as prevention and control of the novel coronavirus. Although these studies had relevance to the control of a public emergency, more high-quality research need to be conducted to provide valid and reliable ways to manage this kind of public health emergency in both short-and long-terms.

scholarly journals Multi-Objective Optimization of Integrated Civilian-Military Scheduling of Medical Supplies for Epidemic Prevention and Control

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Hai-Feng Ling ◽  
Zheng-Lian Su ◽  
Xun-Lin Jiang ◽  
Yu-Jun Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Medical Services ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
Problem Instances ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Minimum Ratio

In a large-scale epidemic, such as the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), there is huge demand for a variety of medical supplies, such as medical masks, ventilators, and sickbeds. Resources from civilian medical services are often not sufficient for fully satisfying all of these demands. Resources from military medical services, which are normally reserved for military use, can be an effective supplement to these demands. In this paper, we formulate a problem of integrated civilian-military scheduling of medical supplies for epidemic prevention and control, the aim of which is to simultaneously maximize the overall satisfaction rate of the medical supplies and minimize the total scheduling cost, while keeping a minimum ratio of medical supplies reservation for military use. We propose a multi-objective water wave optimization (WWO) algorithm in order to efficiently solve this problem. Computational results on a set of problem instances constructed based on real COVID-19 data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals A health worker knowledge, attitudes and practices survey of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention and control in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saiendhra Vasudevan Moodley ◽  
Muzimkhulu Zungu ◽  
Molebogeng Malotle ◽  
Kuku Voyi ◽  
Nico Claassen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Health Worker ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Health Facilities ◽  
World Health ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Health workers are crucial to the successful implementation of infection prevention and control strategies to limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at healthcare facilities. The aim of our study was to determine SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention and control knowledge and attitudes of frontline health workers in four provinces of South Africa as well as explore some elements of health worker and health facility infection prevention and control practices. Methods A cross-sectional study design was utilised. The study population comprised both clinical and non-clinical staff working in casualty departments, outpatient departments, and entrance points of health facilities. A structured self-administered questionnaire was developed using the World Health Organization guidance as the basis for the knowledge questions. COVID-19 protocols were observed during data collection. Results A total of 286 health workers from 47 health facilities at different levels of care participated in the survey. The mean score on the 10 knowledge items was 6.3 (SD = 1.6). Approximately two-thirds of participants (67.4%) answered six or more questions correctly while less than a quarter of all participants (24.1%) managed to score eight or more. A knowledge score of 8 or more was significantly associated with occupational category (being either a medical doctor or nurse), age (< 40 years) and level of hospital (tertiary level). Only half of participants (50.7%) felt adequately prepared to deal with patients with COVD-19 at the time of the survey. The health workers displaying attitudes that would put themselves or others at risk were in the minority. Only 55.6% of participants had received infection prevention and control training. Some participants indicated they did not have access to medical masks (11.8%) and gloves (9.9%) in their departments. Conclusions The attitudes of participants reflected a willingness to engage in appropriate SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention and control practices as well as a commitment to be involved in COVID-19 patient care. Ensuring adequate infection prevention and control training for all staff and universal access to appropriate PPE were identified as key areas that needed to be addressed. Interim and final reports which identified key shortcomings that needed to be addressed were provided to the relevant provincial departments of health.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

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